2020 Indicators: SST's / SAL / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability / Sat Images

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/dcareawx/status/1300523686395600898?s=21

This is a high school kid. Not that there is anything wrong with that

[Steve]

That was me, haha, or at least I was one of them. In my opinion, if the message he is trying to convey was related to ace as well as impacts, he should be outlining ocean areas as well as coastal areas and say, “these are the areas where I expect >50% of total ace to occur.” It would make much more of a statement to highlight the northern Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and east of Florida with risk areas while excluding the rest of the Atlantic, since it would be a more definitive deviation from climatology and more specific to this season.

I think that's what it says? He says (> 50% of total activity). I guess that's technically ambiguous and /= "ACE" necessarily. So I see that point now. https://www.weatherbell.com/may-2020-hu ... son-update

Oof. That’s what I get for making a claim without going back and checking the diagram first. I retract my statement. My false memory was that only the areas in red were highlighted at all. I would update my criticism to say he’s still quite generous with the red, but it’s not as bad as I remember.

As far as the map goes, he was just another indicator of a season weighted to the Western Atlantic. He’s been good there though we have a long way to go in the season. Another note from that forecast was the anticipation of the strong MJO signals. Last time it was down in 2 and spent a few days there (time before Laura), there wasn’t that much activity. But this time we got a Cat 4. What I understood was that he thought it would spend more time in 2/3. We have a couple days in 3, then it’s going back in the circle. So that remains to be seen in September and October as to how strong of a signal and does maybe a building La Niña take over as the dominant signal overall. Maybe they’ll work together at times. ?

[blp]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448

[Hammy]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

That looks completely opposite the favorable conditions we were supposed to expect for September. Makes me wonder if we see a front-loaded season similar to 1990 followed by things picking back up again in October, or something like 2000 where the peak is delayed.

[ClarCari]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

That looks completely opposite the favorable conditions we were supposed to expect for September. Makes me wonder if we see a front-loaded season similar to 1990 followed by things picking back up again in October, or something like 2000 where the peak is delayed.

Yeaaaaa..I’m not buying alot of this. It all seems to good to be true. There’s season cancelling, and there’s innocent wishful thinking (albeit educated wishful thinking!, but still). This season’s not gonna bust no matter how much people try to look into it. But I do agree with them that it’s more possible that development could be mostly westward.......juuuussttt like 2005..And sadly thats makes storms like Katrina, Rita, and Wilma wayyyy more possible

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

That looks completely opposite the favorable conditions we were supposed to expect for September. Makes me wonder if we see a front-loaded season similar to 1990 followed by things picking back up again in October, or something like 2000 where the peak is delayed.

What a HUGE bust that would if so. Can’t believe two recurving typhoons can have HUGE implications on the Atlantic in this way.

[toad strangler]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

That looks completely opposite the favorable conditions we were supposed to expect for September. Makes me wonder if we see a front-loaded season similar to 1990 followed by things picking back up again in October, or something like 2000 where the peak is delayed.

What a HUGE bust that would if so. Can’t believe two recurving typhoons can have HUGE implications on the Atlantic in this way.

Yep, there have never been re-curving W PAC typhoons before. THis is all so new.

[MarioProtVI]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

Actually for what it’s worth the GFS (on the latest run) shows the strong shear from that TUTT just clipping the northern part of the MDR while pretty much killing the subtropics, but leaving the rest of it okay albeit a bit semi-light to fairly moderate shear (~10-15 maybe 20 kt max). If anything forms in the MDR it’ll have stay stay at like ~15–17N as that’s where shear is lower and to not get completely blasted by the shear during that time, and given the strong ridge this could happen. The massive TUTT seems to clear up by mid-September. This is why I would not write off CV season yet and already proclaiming September will be dead or inactive.

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

Actually for what it’s worth the GFS (on the latest run) shows the strong shear from that TUTT just clipping the northern part of the MDR while pretty much killing the subtropics, but leaving the rest of it okay albeit a bit semi-light to fairly moderate shear (~10-15 maybe 20 kt max). If anything forms in the MDR it’ll have stay stay at like ~15–17N as that’s where shear is lower and to not get completely blasted by the shear during that time, and given the strong ridge this could happen. The massive TUTT seems to clear up by mid-September. This is why I would not write off CV season yet and already proclaiming September will be dead or inactive.

Cape Verde season wraps up in late-September though. May be too late to produce any long-tracking storms.

[ClarCari]

Nothing is going to form in MDR with this thing. It will only push everything west. Not good. I don't buy the models with quick development. Plus it will squeeze the Bermuda ridge and pump it up.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1300572652453736448?s=20

Actually for what it’s worth the GFS (on the latest run) shows the strong shear from that TUTT just clipping the northern part of the MDR while pretty much killing the subtropics, but leaving the rest of it okay albeit a bit semi-light to fairly moderate shear (~10-15 maybe 20 kt max). If anything forms in the MDR it’ll have stay stay at like ~15–17N as that’s where shear is lower and to not get completely blasted by the shear during that time, and given the strong ridge this could happen. The massive TUTT seems to clear up by mid-September. This is why I would not write off CV season yet and already proclaiming September will be dead or inactive.

Cape Verde season wraps up in late-September though. May be too late to produce any long-tracking storms.

Honestly we don’t need any though
For ex: the only Cape Verde storm in 2005 to become a major was Emily..in July (and kinda Dennis but it didn’t really form until it reached the eastern Caribbean). Most of the ACE that year came from the gulf and the sea, in fact October that year produced TWO majors in the later half of the month, one of them being the most intense in the Atlantic.

I hope someone can bring other years to demonstrate that you don’t need Cape Verde storms for hyperactivity.
Point being, we may still get a couple Cape Verde storms, but I def think we have huge possibilities of getting powerful Gulf and Caribbean storms in September and even a strong possibility of a crazy October too!

[NDG]

How is this indicator for you.. lol

euro..

40s and 50 into the gulf of mexico in earlt September. lol

rigghttt..

lol season canceled now right ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020083112/ecmwf_T850_eus_11.png

Surprisingly the GFS isn’t much different. Recurving typhoons to blame?

https://i.postimg.cc/9MBfqf27/gfs-T850-eus-41.png

Like I have said, we can have all the troughs come down the plains into the MS river valley, but if they don't keep progressing east the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still hold strong and the threat to the US will continue like it happened last week with Laura.
I would feel safer with a pattern of a big ridge over the southern plains/MS river valley and a huge trough either in the NE US or east of the US Coast.

[Aric Dunn]

How is this indicator for you.. lol

euro..

40s and 50 into the gulf of mexico in earlt September. lol

rigghttt..

lol season canceled now right ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020083112/ecmwf_T850_eus_11.png

Surprisingly the GFS isn’t much different. Recurving typhoons to blame?

https://i.postimg.cc/9MBfqf27/gfs-T850-eus-41.png

Like I have said, we can have all the troughs come down the plains into the MS river valley, but if they don't keep progressing east the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still hold strong and the threat to the US will continue like it happened last week with Laura.
I would feel safer with a pattern of a big ridge over the southern plains/MS river valley and a huge trough either in the NE US or east of the US Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/ySksaNF.gif

I was not worried about the ridge over the western atlantic..

it was the 40 and 50s in the western gulf...

SSTs would take a hit..


that and it being early September.

even the Charlie trough could not bring those types of temps with it.

[NDG]

Surprisingly the GFS isn’t much different. Recurving typhoons to blame?

https://i.postimg.cc/9MBfqf27/gfs-T850-eus-41.png

Like I have said, we can have all the troughs come down the plains into the MS river valley, but if they don't keep progressing east the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still hold strong and the threat to the US will continue like it happened last week with Laura.
I would feel safer with a pattern of a big ridge over the southern plains/MS river valley and a huge trough either in the NE US or east of the US Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/ySksaNF.gif

I was not worried about the ridge over the western atlantic..

it was the 40 and 50s in the western gulf...

SSTs would take a hit..


that and it being early September.

even the Charlie trough could not bring those types of temps with it.

It could close business for the NW GOM at least temporarily but with a negative tilted trough coming down as the models now show, the cooler & drier temps will not progress much eastward across the gulf coast.

[SFLcane]

European ensembles have been pretty firm last few runs recurving any AEW near 60w. Things can change so we shall see.

[SFLcane]

How is this indicator for you.. lol

euro..

40s and 50 into the gulf of mexico in earlt September. lol

rigghttt..

lol season canceled now right ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020083112/ecmwf_T850_eus_11.png

Surprisingly the GFS isn’t much different. Recurving typhoons to blame?

https://i.postimg.cc/9MBfqf27/gfs-T850-eus-41.png

Like I have said, we can have all the troughs come down the plains into the MS river valley, but if they don't keep progressing east the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still hold strong and the threat to the US will continue like it happened last week with Laura.
I would feel safer with a pattern of a big ridge over the southern plains/MS river valley and a huge trough either in the NE US or east of the US Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/ySksaNF.gif

Only thing is there's a lot of weakness under that ridge. Which is why I think you see things heading Northwest instead of due west on the ensembles.

[NDG]

Surprisingly the GFS isn’t much different. Recurving typhoons to blame?

https://i.postimg.cc/9MBfqf27/gfs-T850-eus-41.png

Like I have said, we can have all the troughs come down the plains into the MS river valley, but if they don't keep progressing east the Atlantic/Bermuda ridge will still hold strong and the threat to the US will continue like it happened last week with Laura.
I would feel safer with a pattern of a big ridge over the southern plains/MS river valley and a huge trough either in the NE US or east of the US Coast.

https://i.imgur.com/ySksaNF.gif

Only thing is there's a lot of weakness under that ridge. Which is why I think you see things heading Northwest instead of due west on the ensembles.

They will still bump into the ridge even if they gain latitude unless they find a way out further east.
I am not focusing just on a FL.

[TheStormExpert]

We should be able to out beat 2005’s record earliest N and O storm records with Nana and Omar assuming TD #15 gets named as PTC #16 already has 40mph winds. May even beat Philippe and Rita on the 17th and 18th respectively. After that we are safe with these records until October 2nd.

 https://twitter.com/tarcweather/status/1300814844426366976

[aspen]

It’s getting more and more likely that we’ll soon see 2020’s first long tracking MDR storm. The GFS-Para, CMC, and ICON models, along with the EPS ensembles, continue to show MDR development between late this week and early next week from the currently marked 0/40 AOI, and potentially another system from the wave behind it. The solutions do vary between models and individual runs, but since the globals have been horrible with intensity of systems after 48 hours, I would not be surprised if future Paulette or Rene becomes a hurricane down the road.

If both MDR systems form and the two currently active systems become Nana and Omar, we’ll once again see more earliest named storm records broken. We could get a good amount of ACE from Paulette and/or Rene assuming they become hurricanes.

[Patrick99]

That looks completely opposite the favorable conditions we were supposed to expect for September. Makes me wonder if we see a front-loaded season similar to 1990 followed by things picking back up again in October, or something like 2000 where the peak is delayed.

What a HUGE bust that would if so. Can’t believe two recurving typhoons can have HUGE implications on the Atlantic in this way.

Yep, there have never been re-curving W PAC typhoons before. THis is all so new.

Yeah, what's the big deal about the recurving typhoons? That happens all the time.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/darin_deveauwx/status/1300799688099147780