ATL: NANA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

[aspen]

Hard to believe there's a closed eye already. Nana still seems to be dealing with some easterly shear (which is rather unusual in the Caribbean) since the center is on the eastern edge of the convection, but once this shear relaxes, we could see some more pronounced intensification.

The NHC says shear will continue to drop through the next 48 hours and the atmosphere will moisten up after 24 hours. Looks like Nana could end up as another intensifying-until-landfall storm.

[us89]

Intermediate advisory puts it at 50 mph/1002 mb.

[GCANE]

Also, looking at steering, the deeper this gets the slower the forward speed.

[lrak]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

I have a hard time figuring out short term steering. Do you think the ML Vort will swing it a bit more north and get into the BOC?

[GCANE]

Western edge firing really nice as it gets into the Theta-E ridge.
CAPE continuing to rise. Now 4000.

[aspen]

First we had Micro Marco, now we have Nano Nana.

[GCANE]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

I have a hard time figuring out short term steering. Do you think the ML Vort will swing it a bit more north and get into the BOC?

Steering appears to say so, but what I see on WV looks like its stationary.
If it starts swinging to the SE, then could see a Fujiwhara effect with Nana as it draws closer.
It would likely swing Nana a little more to the NW instead of W.

[GCANE]

Another thing that could weaken the GoM high would be popups over FL.
Strong CAPE over much of the state with 4500 over the Glades.
Cumulus building from clear skies.

I don't think the current forecast track is anywhere yet cast in stone.

[lrak]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

I have a hard time figuring out short term steering. Do you think the ML Vort will swing it a bit more north and get into the BOC?

Steering appears to say so, but what I see on WV looks like its stationary.
If it starts swinging to the SE, then could see a Fujiwhara effect with Nana as it draws closer.
It would likely swing Nana a little more to the NW instead of W.

the ML Vort looks like it's moving slowly WNW....but it is huge compared to Nana...aka...grandma

Not -removed- but want some more surf!!!

[Nimbus]

Not sure how much of a steering element that mid level vort will be. It has moved due west since we spotted it over the tip of Cuba last night. The high cirrus clouds are expanding outwards from the six mile wide eye of Nana which may be slowing as it centers under the building high pressure dome. Only two data points for the eye but WNW is not a good heading for a storm above 16.5 N when you are expecting a storm bound for the Pacific? 5 or 11 PM update should be interesting.

[lrak]

Forgot to mention the big ULL to its NE....will that affect it? Every time I look at the steering charts I get confused

[cheezyWXguy]

I must say, I am impressed with Nana’s appearance on visible satellite. Banding features across the northern 2/3s make it look like a classic Caribbean system. If trends hold and convection deepens this could easily be a hurricane by tomorrow morning

[gatorcane]

Saved loop showing the nice outflow and banding. Not surprising this developed. Models don’t do well with micro storms:

[MississippiWx]

Ridging is well-established north of Grandma. She’s on a beeline for a Central American burial. Let’s just hope she’s not a bitter old lady before that happens.

[wxman57]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

Don't laugh too hard, it's not at 500 mb, it's an upper-level low, which the GFS sees well.

[lrak]

Ridging is well-established north of Grandma. She’s on a beeline for a Central American burial. Let’s just hope she’s not a bitter old lady before that happens.

Is that why all the outflow is to the west of "grandma?"

[GCANE]

LMFAO!!!!
GFS totally misses the ML Vort in the Yucatan Channel.
We might see a little Fuji dance.
Wait when the models put in that recon drop there and the pinhole eye.

https://i.imgur.com/zvCdQv2.png

https://i.imgur.com/kxqz3Dz.png

Don't laugh too hard, it's not at 500 mb, it's an upper-level low, which the GFS sees well.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2020090112/gfs_uv200_watl_2.png

You are right, I just checked CIMSS and it is an ULL.
Thanks.

[MississippiWx]

Ridging is well-established north of Grandma. She’s on a beeline for a Central American burial. Let’s just hope she’s not a bitter old lady before that happens.

Is that why all the outflow is to the west of "grandma?"

Yes. She is being steered by a stacked deep layer ridge to the north which goes all the way up to the 200mb level. In other words, she ain’t got the strength to climb the stairs and the elevator is broken.

[AnnularCane]

Saved loop showing the nice outflow and banding. Not surprising this developed. Models don’t do well with micro storms:

https://i.postimg.cc/x8vmxqd5/goes16-vis-16-L-202009011535.gif

Such a pretty thing. But it seems like a lot of the sat loops I've seen lately have been jumping around. Is something going on with them?