2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[drezee]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302312832843816961

Ahh, I was just about to post about this myself. Actually, I am.

Just a reminder of the latest Teleconnection forecast. A very strong +NAO looks to continue right on through Sept19 and possibly longer. The EPS Ensembles look potentially very worrisome down the road. It corresponds to the teleconnections forecast if it verifies...

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

I agree completely, I put a few more posts on twitter. Surface reflections are suspect. The 500mb trend allows a chance for a handoff to the W ATL ridge. Three days ago, I would have have given it almost zero chance...

[SFLcane]

Big trough off the East Coast is the CONUS shield.

[northjaxpro]

https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1302310942487740416?

This is what I am anticipating to happen with the model runs in the days to come! The East U.S. trough will retrograde down the road as the ridge builds back strongly.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF recurves everything towards the northern Atlantic. The cutoff low near the Azores may be a bit weaker but the Bermuda High is greatly weakened as well allowing an escape route before 60W.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/andretrotter/status/1302312832843816961

Ahh, I was just about to post about this myself. Actually, I am.

Just a reminder of the latest Teleconnection forecast. A very strong +NAO looks to continue right on through Sept19 and possibly longer. The EPS Ensembles look potentially very worrisome down the road. It corresponds to the teleconnections forecast if it verifies...

https://psl.noaa.gov/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

This is likely why the 12z GFS trended MUCH further west. A +NAO with an East Coast trough made no sense to me.

[boca]

Do you see the Bermuda high coming back because according to the NWS Miami the high is nonexistent as far as Florida goes and they said it’s being shoved way up north and East. If that’s the case we are pretty much safe from any storm coming in from the east or southeast for the time being it looks like everything that will develop will recurve unless the high builds in like during Laura,

[AutoPenalti]

Big trough off the East Coast is the CONUS shield.

https://i.postimg.cc/y8J8JZw3/21-B413-E5-61-E5-4-EAA-A27-E-BE1094-D1-E2-EC.png

So hold up, you have people saying ridging is stronger and could have impact implications downstream and then you have people talking about troughs coming and not a Bermuda ridge in sight??

[SFLcane]

Big trough off the East Coast is the CONUS shield.

https://i.postimg.cc/y8J8JZw3/21-B413-E5-61-E5-4-EAA-A27-E-BE1094-D1-E2-EC.png

So hold up, you have people saying ridging is stronger and could have impact implications downstream and then you have people talking about troughs coming and not a Bermuda ridge in sight??

Lol...we are talking fantasy land in regards to these model solutions. Right very messy out in the eastern Atl just gotta wait how it all sorts out

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS animation recurving all systems across the Central Atlantic just like the Euro:

[TheStormExpert]

Nothing seems to be in any hurry to develop, and that has been the theme this year at least in the Tropical Atlantic. Besides the NAO is trending more positive and the PNA is negative which usually means more ridging in the Atlantic and near the U.S. East Coast.

[gatorcane]

Here is the 18Z GEFS Para, every ensemble recurves these Cape Verde systems. I think the GFS para has a case of the HWRF, which clearly overdoes things, it’s like the old CMC and the GFS from a few years back.

[Steve]

Post can’t be moved into 3 threads, so I can’t say what the ICON does with the systems. But it does bring a low down the SC/GA/FL coast as a high is rolling off the US to possibly temporarily block recurves.

[GCANE]

ICON has two possible systems spinning up as the Rossby Wave retrogrades and leaves behind a large Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break.
One off the GA coast and another off the TX/MX border.

[otowntiger]

18Z GFS animation recurving all systems across the Central Atlantic just like the Euro:

https://i.postimg.cc/L6QQyGr7/gfs-z850-vort-eatl-fh0-192.gif

That’s great news! We’ve already had too many land falling Systems causing too much damage- keep those storms outa here!

[Spacecoast]

GEFS 06z Genesis Probabilities for Invest 92L(100%) , 93L(59%) and the wave to exit 9/10(14%):


ECMF Forecast Gen tracks trend shows high probability for wave SE of Bermuda (>90%), 92L (>95%), and 93L(<95%).
The 9/10 wave not as much (~70%)
09/06 0z


Details for '9/10 wave':

[tolakram]

Every day I look at the euro run, every day is different.

Since 120h is usually the furthest once can trust any model run, and this year that's stretching it ....

[tolakram]

The first storm looks like the typical long tracker and possible Bermuda threat. Who knows if the ridge will build enough to threaten the coast.

[aspen]

12z GFS has TS Paulette, Hurricane Rene, and TS Sally in the MDR by 120 hrs, with Sally becoming a hurricane at the end of next week.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro recurving everything across the Central Atlantic. 72 to 216 hour animation. 1995/2010 come to mind:

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/osuwxguy/status/1302673436435795979