Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[SFLcane]

EPS control run with shades of Irma with a potential break in the ridge over FL. Long ways out

[bohai]

MUSTANG SALLY NOW BABY. You better slow that mustang down.

[LarryWx]

No doubt that general climo heavily favors recurves OTS or in some cases open sea dissipations of far E geneses. That looks highly likely for Paulette and Rene (although Rene is affecting CV, itself). However, for this wave over W Africa, fighting that scenario is an expected pretty rapid mainly W move at a pretty low latitude for at least several days. Most don’t move bodily westward like that. Although many still do, the ones that do don’t miss the Caribbean and other W ATL basin land areas in as high a percentage. Let’s see if the modeling is right and it does actually move pretty fast and only a little N of W. Also, let’s see if this comes off down near 11N as opposed to, say, 13-14N.

Also fighting climo is that this is during La Niña. CV storms during La Niña have hit W basin land areas at a higher rate than during other ENSO due to a lower percentage of OTS recurves and open sea dissipations. In addition, the projected genesis date of ~9/10-11 is still at the tail end of the highest risk genesis period for W ATL landfalls, which is ~8/15-9/11. Only after this does the risk start to fall though it does start falling fairly rapidly.

So, if this really turns out to be a low latitude mainly W moving pretty fast moving CV storm emerging Africa still within the tail end of the highest risk period of 8/15-9/11, La Niña climo does not say that Paulette, Rene, and this one will all 3 very likely miss the W ATL land areas. Climo probably says it is a lot closer to, say, 50-50 that all 3 will not miss the considering all of the above for this W African wave.

Climo doesn’t say that each and every CV storm will either recurve OTS or in some cases dissipate out in the open water. It says that most will. Well, assuming that Paulette and Rene will recurve safely and/or dissipate out in the ocean, this African wave landfalling in the W basin would still be only 33% of these 3. A 33% landfall rate during the heart of the CV season in La Niña is not really “going against”
climo.

[Spacecoast]

Another factor is intensity.
Comparing GFS-Para to ECMWF Operational...
GFS-Para crosses 50W on 12z Wednesday, with a pressure of 950, recurving earlier
ECMWF crossess 50W on 00z Tuesday, with a pressure of only 1005

Looking at the ECEN, also illustrates this relationship.

[wx98]

:uarrow:
Another factor is intensity.
Comparing GFS-Para to ECMWF Operational...
GFS-Para crosses 50W on 12z Wednesday, with a pressure of 950, recurving earlier
ECMWF crossess 50W on 00z Tuesday, with a pressure of only 1005

Looking at the ECEN, also illustrates this relationship.

Isn’t the ECMWF also sorta high-biased with pre-developed or developing systems?

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows this heading to the southern Lesser Antilles, way SW of the 6z run

[toad strangler]

The 12zGFS shows this heading to the southern Lesser Antilles, way SW of the 6z run

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

[TheStormExpert]

That GFS run is strange. Not sure if I buy it!

[Hurricaneman]

The 12zGFS shows this heading to the southern Lesser Antilles, way SW of the 6z run

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

Yep, missed that, may be a case where the model doesn’t know what to do with it. Makes little sense seeing as it has a good circulation. Based on that the Euro May have the better solution as far as the evolution

[SFLcane]

Gfs lol..

West part breaks off and goes in the Southern Caribbean.

[aspen]

Gfs lol..

West part breaks off and goes in the Southern Caribbean.

A Caribbean Cruiser hurricane and a Fujiwhara with Rene. Tons of fun (translation: headaches).

[SFLcane]

Gfs lol..

West part breaks off and goes in the Southern Caribbean.

A Caribbean Cruiser hurricane and a Fujiwhara with Rene. Tons of fun (translation: headaches).

Very Bizarre solution.

[toad strangler]

GFS is stuck. I think they pulled the plug on it

[chris_fit]

GFS is stuck. I think they pulled the plug on it

I think it's tropical tidbits - using a paid site the run is finished.... Hurricane into Tampa Bay Area

[mcheer23]

GFS ends up near tampa.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS ends up near tampa.

For some odd reason the 12z GFS hasn't finished running past 10 days (240hrs.).

[mcheer23]

GFS ends up near tampa.

For some odd reason the 12z GFS hasn't finished running past 10 days (240hrs.).

GFS crashed on Tropical Tidbits.

[SFLcane]

This can easily be ignored.

[tomatkins]

The 12zGFS shows this heading to the southern Lesser Antilles, way SW of the 6z run

Energy splits into two after splashdown with one half doing a Texas Two Step with Rene. Bizarre.

tropicaltidbits conked out at hr 228, but it looks like the remnants of Rene and Paulette are both still in the central Atlantic when future Sandy/Teddy enters the picture.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

FWIW, I don't think the system on the 12z GFS is the same one we're tracking over Africa. Looks like the GFS randomly splits off a LLC from the wave (which remains weak throughout the run) and develops that instead. Seems unlikely to me.