Tropical Wave has emerged from West Africa (Is Invest 95L)

[blacktopninja]

This is the largest moisture convergence I have seen all year.
Pulling everything out of the ITCZ all the way to South America.
Even cutting off Rene and Paulette.
Its the whole monsoon trough rolled up into a powder keg.


https://i.imgur.com/edmGgud.png

https://i.imgur.com/os0aKrT.png

Yes. I'm glad someone is talking abut the ITCZ. I've been dying to talk about the ITCZ. It's almost like there's this divergent flow of moisture from 8N to 20 that gets stuck as far as 25N feeding moisture into these East Atlantic Hurricanes. It almost looks like a split flow. Paulette is pulling tropical moisture from the ENE 18-25N, Renee is pulling from the ENE and ITCZ to the SSE, and our African Wave is pulling from ITCZ at 8N to 12N. You can see it on the GFS. You can also see the ITCZ emerge off Central and South America in 3-4 days as it moisture is pulled into the disturbance near Florida. The GFS runs over the last 48 hours keeps showing a greater amount of convergence in the West Caribbean to the Antilles. Then you have this ridge in the Western Atlantic building towards the southwest that will likely trap these low riding storms.
https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/mo ... 1012&fh=42

[Cataegis96]

Ridge gap closes off quicker thanks to Paulette moving out quicker. This will likely come a bit further west than 6z. Nonetheless, looking at a similar (and concerning) scenario.

[SFLcane]

[ColdMiser123]

Pretty remarkable trends over the last 12-18 hours, as we've evolved toward a scenario that the 12z GFS showed a couple days ago, where the wave splits into two pieces, with the western piece timing favorably under a mid-level ridge for it to move westward by quite a lot. That would increase the possibility for US impacts, and would almost certainly result in some kind of land impact.

[chris_fit]

Pretty much identical so the 00Z run - just a little slower through 162 hours

[toad strangler]

Pretty much identical so the 00Z run - just a little slower through 162 hours

12z is faster over 06z

[SFLcane]

Turning wnw that’s 966mb folks..

[WeatherEmperor]

On a collission course with Hispanola??




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[toad strangler]

After slamming Hispaniola I smell a re-curve E of CONUS this run

[SouthFLTropics]

Pretty much identical so the 00Z run - just a little slower through 162 hours

12z is faster over 06z

It's a good deal faster than 06z. Puts it further West in the short term. Well past the islands at 168 hours.

[Cat5James]

After slamming Hispaniola I smell a re-curve E of CONUS this run

I see a blocking high building in that would make this unlikely

[SouthFLTropics]

After slamming Hispaniola I smell a re-curve E of CONUS this run

I wouldn't bet on it. The high to the North and West seems stout.

[aspen]

That’s a tiny circulation heading into 29-30+ C SSTs with minimal land interaction until Hispaniola. I don’t like the look of that one bit. Reminds me a bit of Maria.

[chris_fit]

Pretty much identical so the 00Z run - just a little slower through 162 hours

12z is faster over 06z

Ah, I was comparing to 00Z Run...

[chris_fit]

Pretty much identical so the 00Z run - just a little slower through 162 hours

12z is faster over 06z

Ah, I was comparing to 00Z Run....AND had them reversed... .looks like a little faster and weaker so far

https://i.imgur.com/2RRmMpv.png

[SouthFLTropics]

Looks like Sally wants to take the Cuba tour for some Mojito's this time around.

[toad strangler]

yeah OUCH smack dab into Hispaniola and now Eastern Cuba.

[SouthFLTropics]

yeah OUCH smack dab into Hispaniola and now Eastern Cuba.

Looks like maybe a cutoff developing near Bermuda. May open the magical trap door and let her out.

[gatorcane]

CMC drops it

[St0rmTh0r]

It's been a bad season for the big island's tons of flooding and more to come