Disturbance over The Bahamas (Is Invest 96L)

[Dean4Storms]

Definite consolidation and increasing vorticity with this disturbance. At least the SST's in the Gulf aren't way above normal, about 1C after Laura churned it up but still plenty warm enough for a hurricane.

[NDG]

Last visible loop of the day, you can tell there's plenty of UL divergence and surface convergence getting going on when convection keeps firing up this time of the evening.
This should be tagged as an invest if not later tonight, tomorrow morning. IMO.
H85 vorticity is finally showing up.
I was just thinking that the reason why the models may not be doing much with this system when it gets into the GOM because of the disturbance ahead of it and may be struggling with their interaction if any. If you look at the two models that are not developing it, ICON and CMC they both show the disturbance ahead of it stronger (circulation wise) and this system start rotating around it, but I don't believe this will happen. This system certainly will have the upper hand with better moisture envelop and better UL winds, will be the dominant feature in the GOM.
Something similar happened with Marco and Laura, for a while global models were showing Laura to be fairly weak in the GOM. I can't wait to see what the HWRF will do when they start running tropical models on this.

[NDG]

Definite consolidation and increasing vorticity with this disturbance. At least the SST's in the Gulf aren't way above normal, about 1C after Laura churned it up but still plenty warm enough for a hurricane.

Mid to upper 80s in the GOM are more than warm enough and above average for this time of the year.

[gatorcane]

Up to 50%

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from near the Central and Northwest Bahamas eastward over the
western Atlantic for a few hundred miles is associated with a
surface trough of low pressure. This system is forecast to
move westward, crossing the Bahamas and Florida on Friday and moving
into the eastern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend. Upper-level
winds are expected to become conducive for development, and a
tropical depression could form while this system moves slowly
west-northwestward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico early next week.
Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce
locally heavy rainfall over portions of South Florida and the Keys
during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[jasons2k]

I'm becoming concerned about this system. I hope it gets designated soon and they start running the tropical models on it.

[Aric Dunn]

There is a slightly more concentrated area of convection now. could be the start of something.

[Blow_Hard]

I'm becoming concerned about this system. I hope it gets designated soon and they start running the tropical models on it.

Yeah...it's looking like it's to going be a North Central to Western GOM issue...

[jlauderdal]

I'm becoming concerned about this system. I hope it gets designated soon and they start running the tropical models on it.

It will be tomorrow, i will provide ground observations as it moves through.

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite and radar showing a strong MLC developing with that concentrated area of convection...

if that persists working to the surface wont take too long..

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

I'm becoming concerned about this system. I hope it gets designated soon and they start running the tropical models on it.

Same. Its giving me some anxiety i have family that just moved to alabama

[StAuggy]

Satellite and radar showing a strong MLC developing with that concentrated area of convection...

if that persists working to the surface wont take too long..

Possibly timing well with that new convection and some land interaction to jump start this?

[PTrackerLA]

This is looking very suspicious, gotta admit I've paid more attention to future Sally than this disturbance. Definitely not needed anywhere near Louisiana. Hard to believe it's been 2 weeks since Laura hit. We fared very well but just 70 miles west of here is still basically unliveable. The recovery for SW Louisiana will last for years.

[Aric Dunn]

if this take 24 to 48 hours to even get to florida it has plenty of time to develop before florida..

environment looks really good.

[SFLcane]

[toad strangler]

if this take 24 to 48 hours to even get to florida it has plenty of time to develop before florida..

environment looks really good.

https://i.ibb.co/YXvWSxq/Capture.png

Doubt we get a 2005 Katrina redux (FL) but a similar set up

[sma10]

if this take 24 to 48 hours to even get to florida it has plenty of time to develop before florida..

environment looks really good.

https://i.ibb.co/YXvWSxq/Capture.png

Doubt we get a 2005 Katrina redux (FL) but a similar set up

Yes a bit similar. Katrina wasn't named until around 77W and still managed to landfall as a hurricane. Slow movers in this region can be troublesome

[sma10]

if this take 24 to 48 hours to even get to florida it has plenty of time to develop before florida..

environment looks really good.

https://i.ibb.co/YXvWSxq/Capture.png

Perhaps they want to see if the latest convective burst has staying power ... but I am thinking the time to throw out an invest must be coming soon

[Nimbus]

Coming together a little further south than they were expecting perhaps, there was some vorticity (looked low level) in the southern Bahamas on the last few visible images where the the heaviest convection is tonight.

[SconnieCane]

I'm curious if anyone can point to the origins of this disturbance. Was it one of those AEWs that kind of fizzled on the way across and everyone kind of stopped paying attention for awhile, or did it arise from something else?

[ClarCari]

Is there any rule against last minute recon or them changing the recon plane scheduled for the East Gulf feature to head over to this one instead? Because this is looking more serious at the moment...