ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
TallahasseeMan
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#221 Postby TallahasseeMan » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:52 pm

Impressive convection considering we're pretty close to diurnal minimum.
5 likes   
Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17

User avatar
ronjon
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4822
Joined: Fri Aug 19, 2005 5:17 pm
Location: Hernando Beach, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#222 Postby ronjon » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:55 pm

TD by 5 pm? Getting awful close to it.
5 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#223 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 11, 2020 2:57 pm

Big, quick jump in CAPE between Miami and Andros.
PV Streamer beginning to erode.
Could see something pop around sunset.

Image

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#224 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:06 pm

MIA's pressure down to 1009mb, that's a 6 mb drop from 24 hrs ago, a low closed low pressure east of them is getting deeper this afternoon.

METAR for: KMIA (Miami Intl, FL, US)
Text: KMIA 111953Z 05010G17KT 10SM SCT034 BKN049 BKN085 BKN250 32/23 A2981 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W SLP095 CB DSNT SW MOV SW T03170233
Temperature: 31.7°C ( 89°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C ( 74°F) [RH = 61%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.81 inches Hg (1009.6 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1009.5 mb]
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.1 m/s) gusting to 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.7 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more sm (16+ km)
Ceiling: 4900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 3400 feet AGL, broken clouds at 4900 feet AGL, broken clouds at 8500 feet AGL, broken clouds at 25000 feet AGL
9 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#225 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:06 pm

Two separate ships ( yes different callsigns) are reporting 35mph and 36mph outside of the deepest returns. it is almost certainly closed from what surface obs we have. from the Keys to the ships reports to radar..

Image
8 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#226 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:06 pm

ronjon wrote:TD by 5 pm? Getting awful close to it.

Probably not in my opinion, but a PTC advisory would be nice!
0 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#227 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:09 pm

Nice radial cirrus outflow from the vortical hot tower NW of Andros.
Inflow into it is very apparent.

6 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#228 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:10 pm

They will only call it a PTC if they expect it to become a TS before reaching Florida, since there would be no warnings if only a TD.
0 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#229 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:12 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:They will only call it a PTC if they expect it to become a TS before reaching Florida, since there would be no warnings if only a TD.


Perhaps the watches/warnings would be for the west coast of FL when it is a TS? And they can issue a ts WATCH without explicitly predicting a TS.
0 likes   
Michael 2018

Chemmers
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:16 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#230 Postby Chemmers » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:13 pm

Some nice over shooting cloud tops now
0 likes   

Dean4Storms
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6358
Age: 62
Joined: Sun Aug 31, 2003 1:01 pm
Location: Miramar Bch. FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#231 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:15 pm

At this rate Recon will be investigating a stout TS tomorrow!
5 likes   

User avatar
Cerlin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1182
Age: 23
Joined: Thu Dec 08, 2016 12:06 am
Location: Norman, OK

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#232 Postby Cerlin » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:17 pm

homeboy just kinda came outta nowhere :eek:
4 likes   
Graduate Meteorology Student at the University of Oklahoma!
All opinions independent of employers and the university.

User avatar
Jr0d
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1409
Joined: Tue Aug 27, 2019 10:52 am
Location: Cayo Hueso

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#233 Postby Jr0d » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:17 pm

Definitely has that look. It's fighting some shear to the northwest. I enjoy being able to watch the genesis of these storms on radar. Hopefully it will just be a minor system.

Goes 16 Slider, from Colorado State
2 likes   

User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#234 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:18 pm

More evidence that it has a closed circulation, with nice westerly inflow into the deep Convection.

Image
8 likes   

User avatar
DestinHurricane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 935
Joined: Tue May 01, 2018 8:05 am
Location: New York, NY

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#235 Postby DestinHurricane » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:20 pm

3 likes   
Michael 2018

WxEp
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 71
Joined: Sat Sep 14, 2019 2:34 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#236 Postby WxEp » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:20 pm

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2020 20:19 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).
4 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#237 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:20 pm

NDG wrote:More evidence that it has a closed circulation, with nice westerly inflow into the deep Convection.

https://i.imgur.com/gkQX7Xg.gif


Yep it has been steadily increasing and expanding out.. eventually, the pressure will expand and surface obs along the coast will start switching.
2 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#238 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:21 pm

WxEp wrote:
Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2020 20:19 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).


Not surprised at all. :)
3 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
HurricaneAndre2008
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 334
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:51 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#239 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:21 pm

It's a PTC, let's make a new thread
1 likes   
Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)

User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Discussion

#240 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Sep 11, 2020 3:21 pm

We have Tropical Depression 19!

Absolutely came out of nowhere. Another major forecast fail from the computer models.
6 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests