ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TallahasseeMan]

Impressive convection considering we're pretty close to diurnal minimum.

[ronjon]

TD by 5 pm? Getting awful close to it.

[GCANE]

Big, quick jump in CAPE between Miami and Andros.
PV Streamer beginning to erode.
Could see something pop around sunset.

[NDG]

MIA's pressure down to 1009mb, that's a 6 mb drop from 24 hrs ago, a low closed low pressure east of them is getting deeper this afternoon.

METAR for: KMIA (Miami Intl, FL, US)
Text: KMIA 111953Z 05010G17KT 10SM SCT034 BKN049 BKN085 BKN250 32/23 A2981 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT W SLP095 CB DSNT SW MOV SW T03170233
Temperature: 31.7°C ( 89°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C ( 74°F) [RH = 61%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.81 inches Hg (1009.6 mb) [Sea level pressure: 1009.5 mb]
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 knots; 5.1 m/s) gusting to 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.7 m/s)
Visibility: 10 or more sm (16+ km)
Ceiling: 4900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 3400 feet AGL, broken clouds at 4900 feet AGL, broken clouds at 8500 feet AGL, broken clouds at 25000 feet AGL

[Aric Dunn]

Two separate ships ( yes different callsigns) are reporting 35mph and 36mph outside of the deepest returns. it is almost certainly closed from what surface obs we have. from the Keys to the ships reports to radar..

[TheStormExpert]

TD by 5 pm? Getting awful close to it.

Probably not in my opinion, but a PTC advisory would be nice!

[GCANE]

Nice radial cirrus outflow from the vortical hot tower NW of Andros.
Inflow into it is very apparent.

[CrazyC83]

They will only call it a PTC if they expect it to become a TS before reaching Florida, since there would be no warnings if only a TD.

[DestinHurricane]

They will only call it a PTC if they expect it to become a TS before reaching Florida, since there would be no warnings if only a TD.

Perhaps the watches/warnings would be for the west coast of FL when it is a TS? And they can issue a ts WATCH without explicitly predicting a TS.

[Chemmers]

Some nice over shooting cloud tops now

[Dean4Storms]

At this rate Recon will be investigating a stout TS tomorrow!

[Cerlin]

homeboy just kinda came outta nowhere

[Jr0d]

Definitely has that look. It's fighting some shear to the northwest. I enjoy being able to watch the genesis of these storms on radar. Hopefully it will just be a minor system.

Goes 16 Slider, from Colorado State

[NDG]

More evidence that it has a closed circulation, with nice westerly inflow into the deep Convection.

[DestinHurricane]

https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status ... 5775538176

[WxEp]

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2020 20:19 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

[Aric Dunn]

More evidence that it has a closed circulation, with nice westerly inflow into the deep Convection.

https://i.imgur.com/gkQX7Xg.gif

Yep it has been steadily increasing and expanding out.. eventually, the pressure will expand and surface obs along the coast will start switching.

[Aric Dunn]

Special Message from NHC Issued 11 Sep 2020 20:19 UTC
NHC will initiate advisories on the area of low pressure area east of Florida at 5 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

Not surprised at all.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

It's a PTC, let's make a new thread

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We have Tropical Depression 19!

Absolutely came out of nowhere. Another major forecast fail from the computer models.