ATL: SALLY - Models
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
CMC looks to be toward SE LA too, but needs to run more.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91212&fh=6
Also HWRF and HMON are running.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91212&fh=6
Also HWRF and HMON are running.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Canadian looks like Hancock county Mississippi judging from the cmc website (not great resolution)
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Most 12Z runs are centering on LA/MS landfall. Any one of them will put me in the mix.....MGC
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- LowerAlabamaTider
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
With the very weak steering as it gets near the coast, and the forecast of it meandering there for maybe a couple of days these tracks are not good for SE LA, MS, SW AL & NW FL. Not good at all . . .
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
12z HWRF so far through its 33rd hr forecast is a little more south and west than previous 0z & 06z runs.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
I don’t expect any drastic shifts at this point. I think landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Orange Beach is looking pretty likely. Just my opinion
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HMON - not my model of choice - depicts tightening closer to landfall. 984 at 54 and south of FL/AL line.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=54
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=54
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF strong out to 45 hours. 976 and dropping. This will be the next landfalling US hurricane of 2020.
Last edited by Steve on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Agree Grand isle to orange beach is looking most likely but that’s a wide area and The devil is in the details. Some models strengthen, some aren’t all that impressive. Weak steering at landfall will no doubt throw a wrench into things. The gulf seems to be fertile ground the last year or so, so I’m anxiously waiting more model runs. Hwrf seems more bullish than hmon. But both still have this offshore Tuesday morning... So we have an eternity in gulf hurricane time....note Laura moved from Cuba to la in about 2 days...this will take an extra day to move less distance. Obviously conditions are different however...
Last edited by PTPatrick on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:09 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Steve wrote:HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF weak out to 33 at 1006.
12z HWRF at 33 hours is at 988 mb.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Steve wrote:HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF weak out to 33 at 1006.
12z HWRF at 33 hours is at 988 mb.
Yeah I fixed the post. It pulled up some random older run when I clicked on it. Looks like a serious threat developing on the HWRF.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Yeah. HMON appears heading toward Mobile or Jackson County. 970’s though so maybe a 2?
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
12z HWRF has a mid-range Cat 3 approaching Mississippi by 57 hours.
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- MississippiWx
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
HWRF 
951mb 130kts 850mb winds at 57 hours off MS coast.

951mb 130kts 850mb winds at 57 hours off MS coast.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Not a good sign when we see this type of agreement in the HWRF/HMON this close to landfall. We saw that with Laura. Global models didn't have a clue.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.


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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Not a good sign when we see this type of agreement in the HWRF/HMON this close to landfall. We saw that with Laura. Global models didn't have a clue.
No, they did not. The Globals have struggled most.of this hyperactive 2020 season. This has been the theme for sure.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
NDG wrote:This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.
https://i.imgur.com/DdUCqe5.png
Much slower than Katrina as well.
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This post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of MississippiWx and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NINETEEN - Models
Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies. And even if it (hopefully) doesn't verify, this goes to show just how careful we have to be with these situations during peak season. Just 24 hours ago this had a 10% chance of formation and now we're looking at models possibly indicating a major hurricane.
Last edited by kevin on Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:29 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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