ATL: SALLY - Models

[Steve]

CMC looks to be toward SE LA too, but needs to run more.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91212&fh=6

Also HWRF and HMON are running.

[PTPatrick]

Canadian looks like Hancock county Mississippi judging from the cmc website (not great resolution)

[MGC]

Most 12Z runs are centering on LA/MS landfall. Any one of them will put me in the mix.....MGC

[LowerAlabamaTider]

With the very weak steering as it gets near the coast, and the forecast of it meandering there for maybe a couple of days these tracks are not good for SE LA, MS, SW AL & NW FL. Not good at all . . .

[NDG]

12z HWRF so far through its 33rd hr forecast is a little more south and west than previous 0z & 06z runs.

[bella_may]

I don’t expect any drastic shifts at this point. I think landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Orange Beach is looking pretty likely. Just my opinion

[Steve]

HMON - not my model of choice - depicts tightening closer to landfall. 984 at 54 and south of FL/AL line.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=54

[Steve]

HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF strong out to 45 hours. 976 and dropping. This will be the next landfalling US hurricane of 2020.

[PTPatrick]

Agree Grand isle to orange beach is looking most likely but that’s a wide area and The devil is in the details. Some models strengthen, some aren’t all that impressive. Weak steering at landfall will no doubt throw a wrench into things. The gulf seems to be fertile ground the last year or so, so I’m anxiously waiting more model runs. Hwrf seems more bullish than hmon. But both still have this offshore Tuesday morning... So we have an eternity in gulf hurricane time....note Laura moved from Cuba to la in about 2 days...this will take an extra day to move less distance. Obviously conditions are different however...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF weak out to 33 at 1006.

12z HWRF at 33 hours is at 988 mb.

[Steve]

HMON to 60 hours still moving NW at 978. HWRF weak out to 33 at 1006.

12z HWRF at 33 hours is at 988 mb.

Yeah I fixed the post. It pulled up some random older run when I clicked on it. Looks like a serious threat developing on the HWRF.

[bella_may]

Yikes. HWRF with the major hurricane

[Steve]

Yeah. HMON appears heading toward Mobile or Jackson County. 970’s though so maybe a 2?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF has a mid-range Cat 3 approaching Mississippi by 57 hours.

[MississippiWx]

HWRF

951mb 130kts 850mb winds at 57 hours off MS coast.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Not a good sign when we see this type of agreement in the HWRF/HMON this close to landfall. We saw that with Laura. Global models didn't have a clue.

[NDG]

This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.

[northjaxpro]

Not a good sign when we see this type of agreement in the HWRF/HMON this close to landfall. We saw that with Laura. Global models didn't have a clue.

No, they did not. The Globals have struggled most.of this hyperactive 2020 season. This has been the theme for sure.

[MississippiWx]

This would be the worst case scenario for Nola from the angle it would be coming from if the 12z HWRF was to be correct, way worst than when Katrina.

https://i.imgur.com/DdUCqe5.png

Much slower than Katrina as well.

[kevin]

Wow HWRF has a 950 mbar, 108 kts (124 mph, 200 kmh) major hurricane landfall in pretty much the worst location for New Orleans. Would be catastrophic if it verifies. And even if it (hopefully) doesn't verify, this goes to show just how careful we have to be with these situations during peak season. Just 24 hours ago this had a 10% chance of formation and now we're looking at models possibly indicating a major hurricane.