ATL: SALLY - Models

[Ivanhater]

Icon actually a slight shift west, was Pensacola but looking more Baldwin county. Perhaps we will see them start to condense on the Biloxi to Mobile area?

That is what I am thinking

[pcolaman]

Icon actually a slight shift west, was Pensacola but looking more Baldwin county. Perhaps we will see them start to condense on the Biloxi to Mobile area?

That is what I am thinking

I think that's almost identical to 18z run.

[Fancy1001]

ICON deepens it to 964mb.

[DestinHurricane]

Icon actually a slight shift west, was Pensacola but looking more Baldwin county. Perhaps we will see them start to condense on the Biloxi to Mobile area?

That is what I am thinking

I think that's almost identical to 18z run.

It's very slightly west. I don't think a 20 mile shift means much as ICON has been flip flopping a lot. Other models will tell the tale.

[Steve]

ICON deepens it to 964mb.

That’s pretty stout. The over a foot of rain on it is primarily Baldwin and Escambia Counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1400&fh=36

[pcolaman]

ICON deepens it to 964mb.

That’s pretty stout. The over a foot of rain on it is primarily Baldwin and Escambia Counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1400&fh=36

WOW!!

[bella_may]

[Steve]

ICON deepens it to 964mb.

That’s pretty stout. The over a foot of rain on it is primarily Baldwin and Escambia Counties.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1400&fh=36

WOW!!

We’ll see The Panhandle was never out of the woods regardless of whether the ICON is close or not. I felt like Slidell to Pascagoula was the range with worst effects east all along. So if it’s strong and slow, there will be some tidal flooding, creeks and streams and low lying areas. Everyone knows their situations there and should be prepared to get out of harms way. Too many people drown in storms.

[Ivanhater]

Gfs coming in slightly west

[PTPatrick]

Gfs coming in slightly west

Seems a hair weaker too but barely. Probably just to account for closer ride over the chandeleur islands? Looks like it will be west of 18z at landfall again...close to where nhc is at over pearl river.

[Fancy1001]

GFS was stronger this run. 977 MB at landfall and a little further east closer to Gulfport

I think you're looking at the 18z run.

[eastcoastFL]

And probably shift back west a little tonight.
I think a good bet right now is the LA/MS border.

What a huge change from this morning. All models big shift east and stronger

We will see but the models have been getting new data today and all models that show strengthening have moved east. So unless models come in weaker, I don't expect shifts west but it could happen

Most of the ensemble plots still appear to be west of the operational runs unless I’m viewing this wrong

[PTPatrick]

Yep gfs landfall at 42 hrs...big shift from Long Beach to Bay St. Louis.

[Ivanhater]

The weaker ones are. The strongest ones are toward Miss and AL.

Gfs is weaker this run. Just a hair west this run but not much

[Frank P]

Looks like both the Oz ICON and GFS models both shifted a tad west, guessing perhaps 15-20 miles or so...

[shah83]

I don't really think the strength of the system determines the turn, but the strength of the ridge to the northeast and east. Broadly speaking, I think we're overdetermining the landfall site when, to put it mildly, the steering currents are weak. It may well be an inside of twenty-four hour judgement as to where Sally landfalls.

For example, people pointing out that weaker ensemble solutions heading more west should note that it's a mechanical application of the ridge's ability to push Sally west, and not a necessarily speaking that a stronger Sally would erode the ridge north of it.

[MississippiWx]

GFS made landfall on SE Louisiana this run, thus the weaker solution. Still restrengthened it into a hurricane as it headed back out over the Mississippi Sound. The important note might be that the GFS has stopped its eastward shifts. Only one run though.

[DestinHurricane]

Based on current organization trends, GFS is too weak. It is already stronger now than GFS has in 18 hours.

[SconnieCane]

Based on current organization trends, GFS is too weak. It is already stronger now than GFS has in 18 hours.

GFS (and other globals) also aren't high-res enough to use as precise intensity models.

[DestinHurricane]

Based on current organization trends, GFS is too weak. It is already stronger now than GFS has in 18 hours.

GFS (and other globals) also aren't high-res enough to use as precise intensity models.

I think it is too far west with that intensity. ICON is closer to the correct intensity.