ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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xironman
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1741 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:14 am

Impressive meso on the NE eyewall

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1742 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:15 am

Another center reformation further S and E?
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1743 Postby Blow_Hard » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:16 am

3090 wrote:Still too close for comfort for the eastern side of lower Louisiana coast for first landfall. We'll see. It could miss the entire eastern side of the Louisiana coast altogether.



It's going to be close. IMHO it'll graze the tip of SE LA as it moves NNE towards the MS coast for landfall. Still going to be lots of water to deal with but obviously not the doomsday scenario they might've otherwise been facing.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1744 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:16 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.


Are you looking at the same recon data I am? Recon has found the center to be now be east of 87W, which is right in the middle of the deep convection.


Glanced at recon and assumed west position newest. Center at red crosshairs.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1745 Postby Chemmers » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:17 am

Think the storm surge number will go up alot unfortunately
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1746 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:17 am

Collenyd wrote:
NDG wrote:Sally, that girl, is getting going, amazing deep convection. We will probably see the LLC and MLC start getting stacked little by little during the day today.

https://i.imgur.com/cZFQUdn.gif


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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1747 Postby LowerAlabamaTider » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:17 am

Gotta say that none of this is very comforting this morning here in S Alabama.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1748 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:17 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:
GCANE wrote:Very small, very cold-top tower now firing.
This may go sub 10nm pinhole eye.

Think you're right. There is a very small core forming on radar now.


Fireworks may have just begun.
Just about to tap into the big CAPE pool.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1749 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:19 am

Like a big-ass tornado

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1750 Postby wxman57 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:19 am

Chemmers wrote:Think the storm surge number will go up alot unfortunately


7-9 ft MS coast
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1751 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:22 am

Nice developing eyewall.

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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1752 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 am

Appears at least on radar to be tracking much more NW than WNW for now if you ask me.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1753 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 am

Lightning just about gone now.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1754 Postby cfisher » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 am

ADT picked up on the new center

2020SEP14 145018 2.8 995.0 41.0 2.8 3.2 4.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF OFF OFF -75.10 -76.41 UNIFRM N/A -1.4 28.40 86.89 FCST GOES16 35.5
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1755 Postby xironman » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 am

991 in the latest drop. Steadily strengthening.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1756 Postby us89 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:23 am

NHC is starting to buy into the east shift in track it looks like. Hurricane warnings extended east all the way to the AL/FL border.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1757 Postby aspen » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:24 am

NDG wrote:Nice developing eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/S9U47js.png

Beat me by a minute! I was gonna post that too.

But yeah, Sally's wind/pressure gradient has greatly improved and tightened up between just two passes. She might be in the high 980s when the NOAA plane gets in there.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1758 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:24 am

wxman57 wrote:
Chemmers wrote:Think the storm surge number will go up alot unfortunately


7-9 ft MS coast


Officially is 7-11 from the mouth of the river to Ocean Springs.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1759 Postby Dean4Storms » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:25 am

wxman57 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Center is still near western edge of convection. That is NOT the center in that black circle above. We have landfall near Gulfport as a 75-85 mph hurricane around 8pm tomorrow.


Are you looking at the same recon data I am? Recon has found the center to be now be east of 87W, which is right in the middle of the deep convection.


Glanced at recon and assumed west position newest. Center at red crosshairs.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally6.JPG


Yea, that was the first pass this morning and then the center re-located to the NE in the deep convection with the MLC.
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Re: ATL: SALLY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1760 Postby NDG » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:25 am

aspen wrote:
NDG wrote:Nice developing eyewall.

https://i.imgur.com/S9U47js.png

Beat me by a minute! I was gonna post that too.

But yeah, Sally's wind/pressure gradient has greatly improved and tightened up between just two passes. She might be in the high 980s when the NOAA plane gets in there.


And the interesting fact is that it was a SE to NW pass, can't be more evident than that.
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