ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Stormcenter]

I think she confused or lost. Maybe she’ll
drift south and really throw everything
out of wack.

Sally looks almost stationary

[cheezyWXguy]

Despite the convective burst, radar presentation looks awfully anemic. I’m hard pressed to see a storm supposedly this strong with such a wimpy eyewall

[Blown Away]

Maybe some shear impacting the SW quad of Sally?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[MississippiWx]

Looks like pressure is still maintaining since the previous advisory. It was 988mb per nhc at 8pm est. I think they’ll stick with a 100mph storm at 11pm.

NHC definitely will stick with 100mph at 11. They won't want to give the appearance of a weakening storm, especially because it's likely to strengthen some more before it ultimately makes landfall.

True, NHC won't indicate weakening so that coastal residents don't stop monitoring. However, plane just cannot find anything over about 60-65 kts (2 planes). By the way, I'm typing with 2 hands now, just 4 days after getting a titanium plate put in to join the 3 pieces of my radius bone. Feels good.

I hear titanium plates attract huge cold patterns in the winter. Your broken arm was a plot by the winter lovers of S2K. Get ready, winter is coming!

Anyway, Sally.

[crimi481]

Possibly doing a sw loop - then to east. Water vapor may show this. Justa feeling

[aspen]

These impressive hot towers will need to continuously fire to get that eyewall solid and ready for a second burst of intensification. Will they succeed? Only time will tell, but they have helped lower the pressure a bit.

[PTPatrick]

11 pm forecast landfall right to state line, landfall point over Grand Bay Wednesday morn

[hcane27]

It appears as though every time there is a CCB , "central convective burst", the center adjusts to match where the main burst forms

[Stormcenter]

From the 10pm discussion. I think this statement pretty
much covers all bases for NHC. So I guess everyone is
still in play based on this.

It is still too early to determine where Sally's center will move
onshore given the uncertainty in the timing and location of Sally's
northward turn near the central Gulf Coast. Users should not focus
on the details of the official forecast track, since NHC's average
forecast error at 36 hours is around 60 miles, and dangerous storm
surge, rainfall, and wind hazards will extend well away from the
center.

[TheStormExpert]

A pressure of 986mb for a 100mph Cat.2 is not very impressive. Also the NHC is now forecasting a weakening hurricane at landfall due to westerly shear and upwelling.

[wx98]

From the disco:

After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has
plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that
the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support
perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar
images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of
the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the
south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into
that portion of the circulation.

This is literally the definition of not allowing the public to let their guard down. This storm is nowhere near 85 kts. Not even a “generous” estimate yields close to 85 kts.

[ElectricStorm]

A pressure of 986mb for a 100mph Cat.2 is not very impressive. Also the NHC is now forecasting a weakening hurricane at landfall due to westerly shear and upwelling.

It is down 2mb from the last update though and the rainfall and flood threat remain just as dangerous if this comes in as a cat 3 or a cat 1. Extremely dangerous event either way.

[ConvergenceZone]

A pressure of 986mb for a 100mph Cat.2 is not very impressive. Also the NHC is now forecasting a weakening hurricane at landfall due to westerly shear and upwelling.

Yep, knew that as coming, at least the upwelling part! Let's keep it stalled or moving slow, and keep churning up those cool waters and who knows,maybe tomorrow we can wake up to a significantly weakened hurricane.... The slower it moves over the same area, the more of a chance of that happening.....

[ConvergenceZone]

From the disco:

After rapidly strengthening earlier today, Sally's intensity has
plateaued for now. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters
have been investigating Sally this evening and they have found that
the minimum pressure and winds have leveled off, and support
perhaps a generous initial intensity of 85 kt. Doppler radar
images and reports from both aircraft indicate the inner core of
the hurricane is quite small and that the eyewall is open on the
south side, likely due to some dry air that has wrapped into
that portion of the circulation.

This is literally the definition of not allowing the public to let their guard down. This storm is nowhere near 85 kts. Not even a “generous” estimate yields close to 85 kts.

I'm thinking it's around 85mph now myself, but just a guess based on presentation and recon....

[N2FSU]

11pm NHC track zoomed in



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Blown Away]

These impressive hot towers will need to continuously fire to get that eyewall solid and ready for a second burst of intensification. Will they succeed? Only time will tell, but they have helped lower the pressure a bit.

That hot tower cloud top is warming, gonna need to keep pulsing.

[NDG]

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

[TheStormExpert]

A pressure of 986mb for a 100mph Cat.2 is not very impressive. Also the NHC is now forecasting a weakening hurricane at landfall due to westerly shear and upwelling.

Yep, knew that as coming, at least the upwelling part! Let's keep it stalled or moving slow, and keep churning up those cool waters and who knows,maybe tomorrow we can wake up to a significantly weakened hurricane.... The slower it moves over the same area, the more of a chance of that happening.....

Not to mention wind shear is already increasing again. Doubt this becomes a major.

[ConvergenceZone]

A pressure of 986mb for a 100mph Cat.2 is not very impressive. Also the NHC is now forecasting a weakening hurricane at landfall due to westerly shear and upwelling.

Yep, knew that as coming, at least the upwelling part! Let's keep it stalled or moving slow, and keep churning up those cool waters and who knows,maybe tomorrow we can wake up to a significantly weakened hurricane.... The slower it moves over the same area, the more of a chance of that happening.....

Not to mention wind shear is already increasing again. Doubt this becomes a major.

I agree, the conditions just aren't there for a major. Sure the waters are warm(except for upwelling), but you need much more than just warm waters to get a major.....

[MississippiWx]

I just cannot remember when was the last time that the 48 hr forecast track by the NHC busted so bad, by so many miles. That's why they include the cone of uncertainty because it surely does can vary by that many miles, at times.
Good for some but not good for others.

https://i.imgur.com/9x3LNwn.png

Yep. Just goes to show that a pattern with weak steering is still not easy for them to figure out. What's crazy is they still are (educated) guessing at this point.