ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Winds here are really ramping up.

[Fancy1001]

https://weather.com/weather/radar/inter ... torm=sally

Zoom in on the track, and it looks like a kid was playing connect the dots lol.

[cfisher]

This thing's getting retired anyway if places get 40+ inches of rain.

[cfisher]

Nobody look at the Euro's track for Teddy

[wx98]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

[Fancy1001]

Nobody look at the Euro's track for Teddy

Fun times for Maine.

[ElectricStorm]

Special advisory holds at 105mph/968 mb

[cheezyWXguy]

Yet another tornado warning for Panama City. Weak debris signature evident on cc

[Beef Stew]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0630Z 29.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[ClarCari]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

We don’t know this....
It can go slightly down the right back up quickly.
Another recon on the way and still a few hours before landfall according to the special advisory.

[Fancy1001]

Is the plane going home, or making one last northeast pass.

[ElectricStorm]

Yet another tornado warning for Panama City. Weak debris signature evident on cc

Dang they are getting absolutely hammered with those tornado warnings

[Dean4Storms]

Yet another tornado warning for Panama City. Weak debris signature evident on cc

If memory serves they got hit several times with tornadoes with Ivan and I think someone got injured or killed.

[cheezyWXguy]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

If the eye contracts, even if the pressure stabilizes, winds could still increase. I wouldn't rule it out just yet.

[wx98]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

We don’t know this....
It can go slightly down the right back up quickly.
Another recon on the way and still a few hours before landfall according to the special advisory.

The NHC literally just put it at mid Cat 2 and forecasted high-end Cat 2 so yes we know this.

[TallahasseeMan]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0630Z 29.9N 87.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 30.3N 87.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 31.2N 86.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 17/1200Z 32.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 18/0000Z 32.9N 83.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 18/1200Z 33.6N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 19/0000Z 34.0N 79.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 20/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Looks like they hedged between showing continued strengthening and calling it a major.


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[FLpanhandle91]

Dang. NHC has this thing intensifying and offshore for 12 more hours?

[cfisher]

A little wobble to the NE to cancel out the shear vector could be enough to close off that inner eyewall.

[wx98]

Is the plane going home, or making one last northeast pass.

Gotta come back through to get to Houston so yes.

[ElectricStorm]

It leveled out on the latest center pass. Pressure back to 970. Mid to high-end Cat 2 is probably where this will end up.

If the eye contracts, even if the pressure stabilizes, winds could still increase. I wouldn't rule it out just yet.

NHC has it landfalling at 110mph so high cat 2 or low cat 3 seems like a good bet at this point. Impacts will be the same regardless