ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

This will probably be a PTC at 5pm

Isn't that if a storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to land within 48 hours? I am not sure this system is going to do that anywhere that soon.

They do PTC advisories I believe when their close to land like this.

[northjaxpro]

Recon just took off and heading to 90L

[Sanibel]

Looks like another outbreak season where everything forms...

Another wanderer...

[Steve]

I'm confused. If there is a strong ridge across the Eastern US and a weak frontal boundary approaching it, wouldn't that make the ridge lift the frontal boundary over itself or would that push the ridge out of the way? Also, if the frontal boundary gets lifted over the ridge, wouldn't that cause for a track between maybe Vermilion Bay & Matagorda Bay?

The front is ahead of the ridge. 3090 said the system would find a weakness as it butted up against it and head out. I don't think that's going to happen at least for this wave. GFS has changed its tune completely and is kind of A Day After Tomorrow run where it takes the first low, brings it up, and moves it toward Texas. A new low forms at the tail end of the front in SWLA and another forms in the Bay of Campeche which looks to become a TD/TS and spins around down in the Bay. Normally I'd say I'm not buying it, but ICON keeps the original low and has it moving NE at 983mb heading toward LA in 7 1/2 days. So it's possible there's just a lot of noise that needs to reconcile.

Here is the issue with the GFS. Plain and simple. It is confused.

“GFS has the parent low lifting north, then turning left, weakening and finding its way into Texas BUT there is more, it leaves more convection over the western Gulf so a new storm is forming off LA Coast while another storm is coming out of the BOC. Safe to say the GFS is struggling with all of these convective feedback problems so it wants to turn every blob into a storm“.

Now back to the normal, very clear and understandable future track of Wilfred.

Lol and agreed. Your post seemed to indicate you heard it would move up and find a weakness. Levi and Suddeth both noted that solution yesterday as probably an outlier. I completely agree that at some point a low coming up should be able to find one (or either ride the front or get pushed back). But the OG low won’t as the GFS has changed its ideas.

[HeeBGBz]

It initially went thru SELA and SW Mississippi this past weekend as a tropical disturbance with a lot of tstorms. Round 2 coming, as a bonafide tropical system?

I had more weather in Biloxi from it than I got from Sally. It poured down in sheets. I thought it was a band from Sally.

[edu2703]

This storm will be a pain for meteorologists. With the disagreement of the models, the first NHC cone will probably cover half of the gulf.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 171837
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0230 PM EDT THU 17 SEPTEMBER 2020
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 18/1100Z TO 19/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2020
TCPOD NUMBER.....20-114

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. HURRICANE TEDDY
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 18/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0220A TEDDY
C. 18/1530Z
D. 22.8N 56.4W
E. 18/1730Z TO 18/2100Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72
A. 19/0000Z
B. AFXXX 0322A CYCLONE
C. 18/2200Z
D. 24.5N 93.4W
E. 18/2330Z TO 19/0300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 73
A. 19/1200Z
B. AFXXX 0422A CYCLONE
C. 19/1030Z
D. 25.3N 92.8W
E. 19/1130Z TO 19/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. BUOY DROP MISSION AHEAD OF TEDDY FOR 19/1800Z.
B. BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES ON TEDDY AT 19/2330Z.
C. CONTINUE 12-HOURLY FIXES ON GULF OF MEXICO SYSTEM.

4. REMARKS:
A. THE NOAA 49 G-IV WILL FLY A 7-HOUR G-IV RESEARCH MISSION
AROUND HURRICANE TEDDY TOMORROW, DEPARTING TISX AT
18/1600Z.
B. THE NOAA 42 AND 43 P-3S WILL FLY TWO 7-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSIONS INTO HURRICANE TEDDY TOMORROW, THE FIRST DEPARTING
TISX AT 18/1300Z AND THE SECOND DEPARTING TISX AT 18/2100Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN

[GCANE]

Tight cumulus spin becoming evident.

[GCANE]

Looks like its spinning up with a big drop in CAPE.
Could be another cold-pool TC.

[chaser1]

Just took a first look in about 5 hours This thing has got to be a T.D...... might be close to a T.S.! This has escalated a good deal today and what appeared as an elongated COC this morning, now appears to have developed a fairly tight LLC. I hadn't heard if recon will get there soon but if so, I'm pretty sure we'll have a T.D. at 5:00pm

[lrak]

I think I'm developing "chronic hurricane syndrome" or CHS. Hopefully my doctor will prescribe some drugs.

[Blinhart]

So this cool front that's coming down and stall over the Gulf Coast is going to be the deciding factor I guess.

[aspen]

The fact that 90L/Wilfred will be stuck in the Gulf for days, meandering over 30-31C SSTs with <910 mbar MPIs and higher OHC than Sally means that despite the potential for dry air, I’m not excluding the possibility of this making a run for major hurricane intensity sometime during its life.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The only areas that dont have wake left from Laura or Sally. It sure looks like at least a depression to me.

[northjaxpro]

The only areas that dont have wake left from Laura or Sally. It sure looks like at least a depression to me.

It may be a low end Tropical Storm Wilfred when Recon gets in there, which should be shortly.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Looks like no new cyclone at 5pm

[hurricanehunter69]

Check out the dry air moving in from the west. That air should moisten up and saturate with water in short order. Also, notice how everything is streaming off to the north/north east. I'd bet on future Wilfred paying a visit to the north gulf coast.https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

[HurricaneAndre2008]

1006.0 mb
(~ 29.71 inHg)

[wxman57]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

[northjaxpro]

Got my cast off this afternoon - only a wrist brace. The titanium has fused with my skeleton to make me extra strong. As for 90L, there is much uncertainty in its long-term future. Models agree it will move steadily northward for 2-3 days then run into weak steering currents. During that 2-3 days, it will be ingesting a lot of dry air from behind the front. It may even merge with the front for a while. However, by early next week, the frontal boundary will be dissipating, allowing for strengthening. General thinking is a drift westward toward the lower to middle Texas coast early next week. Big question is - does it just continue moving west and inland into TX Tuesday, as per the GFS? Does it only approach the TX coast then stall,waiting for a passing trof to the north to pick it up and steer it NE (Euro, ICON)? UKMET takes it to the coast of MX south of Brownsville next Tue/Wed and stalls it. It did very well with Sally.

I have it moving toward TX Mon/Tue, dipping SW then turning E-ENE Wed-Thu (70kt hurricane at day 7). Would rather it just move inland into south TX or Mexico early next week. That could happen...

Great news about your wrist 57. It appears you are recovering well!

Yeah, this system will give us all migraines in the days to come unfortunately meandering arounnd in the GOM.