ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1046
Age: 25
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: United States
Contact:

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#281 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:56 am

wxman57 wrote:Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


Quikscat launched in 1999, so there were quite a few instances in which scatterometer data was used in 2005, typically but definitely not exclusively for storms far from land, including for the upgrade of Epsilon and Vince and Delta, for instance.

It's going to be really interesting to see how the interaction with TD Twenty-Two and the incoming upper-level trough plays out. Interestingly, while I was expecting a much more baroclinic interaction with plenty of dry and cool air advection on the storm's western flanks (which could possibly lead to subtropical transition), the models seem to have emphasized the system maintaining a more tropical presence with the trough more rapidly decaying as it passes over the system. Conditions out there aren't particularly unfavorable for intensification, though the trough interaction may play out in curious ways with the core structure. Might even get a bit of a window of favorable trough-storm interaction as the trough briefly provides a sizeable poleward outflow jet for 22L as evident from the storm's northern cirrus this morning. As the aphorism says, never trust a Gulf system to be well-behaved. At the very least, somebody is getting a lot of rain.

188 KB. Source: HFIP Experimental Products
Image
Last edited by TheAustinMan on Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
8 likes   
ImageImageImage
Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21238
Age: 42
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#282 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:56 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Just curious - which ones?


Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


They would've been named. We had QuikSCAT, which was arguably better than ASCAT even as it had better coverage.


They all would have been named. All the same. We have better scat data. As well our understanding of a TC and what should be classified.
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8238
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#283 Postby jasons2k » Fri Sep 18, 2020 10:59 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Just curious - which ones?


Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


They would've been named. We had QuikSCAT, which was arguably better than ASCAT even as it had better coverage.


Yes, the satellite the Bill Proenza lost his job over. That was a giant fiasco at the time. Anyway, I think future "Alpha" is going to throw us some twists and turns, and not just in the literal sense. Anyone along the Gulf Coast should keep an eye on it.
0 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#284 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:12 am

There should be oil rig data that can help us too.
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2079
Age: 48
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#285 Postby Blinhart » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:14 am

CrazyC83 wrote:There should be oil rig data that can help us too.


Could be possible TD 22/ TS Alpha could try to hit all the oil rigs in the GoM.
3 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#286 Postby us89 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:14 am

wxman57 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005.

Just curious - which ones?

Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


Eric Blake disagreed, at least a couple weeks ago:

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1303087123948544000


5 likes   

tomatkins
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 222
Joined: Wed Sep 05, 2018 2:11 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#287 Postby tomatkins » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:20 am

TheAustinMan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


Quikscat launched in 1999, so there were quite a few instances in which scatterometer data was used in 2005, typically but definitely not exclusively for storms far from land, including for the upgrade of Epsilon and Vince and Delta, for instance.

It's going to be really interesting to see how the interaction with TD Twenty-Two and the incoming upper-level trough plays out. Interestingly, while I was expecting a much more baroclinic interaction with plenty of dry and cool air advection on the storm's western flanks (which could possibly lead to subtropical transition), the models seem to have emphasized the system maintaining a more tropical presence with the trough more rapidly decaying as it passes over the system. Conditions out there aren't particularly unfavorable for intensification, though the trough interaction may play out in curious ways with the core structure. Might even get a bit of a window of favorable trough-storm interaction as the trough briefly provides a sizeable poleward outflow jet for 22L as evident from the storm's northern cirrus this morning. As the aphorism says, never trust a Gulf system to be well-behaved. At the very least, somebody is getting a lot of rain.

188 KB. Source: HFIP Experimental Products
https://i.imgur.com/hJEwG0T.png

Seems kind of whack to only give two examples, and one of them just got named and could still intensify to obviously TS status. Maybe Vicky doesnt get named in 2005, but considering what did get named way out in the Eastern Atlantic back in 2005, it probably would have.
1 likes   

User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5274
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#288 Postby Nimbus » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:25 am

Lots of dry shear as WXman57 forecast and the trough is digging more than I expected so it might get scooped in a shorter time span. Can't tell from WV imagery how quickly the trough might lift out or fill though, so will have to check back later for that.
0 likes   

AerospaceEng
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 53
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2016 10:34 am

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#289 Postby AerospaceEng » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:26 am

Alpha named near Portugal, looks like this will be Beta!
3 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#290 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:27 am

It.is a possibility TD 22 cioud get Beta.

99L may get the Alpha .
..
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5017
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#291 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:27 am

northjaxpro wrote:Itis a possibility TD 22 ciuld get Beta.

99L may get the Alpha .
..

Yep 99L is now alpha
0 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8812
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#292 Postby aspen » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:30 am

It’s absolutely nuts that we’re likely to end up with Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta all named today. What an absolute madhouse the Atlantic is.
4 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5017
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#293 Postby ElectricStorm » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:32 am

aspen wrote:It’s absolutely nuts that we’re likely to end up with Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta all named today. What an absolute madhouse the Atlantic is.

And Paulette could regenerate in a few days. Imagine having 17L and 24L active at the same time
5 likes   
I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.

Boomer Sooner!

User avatar
PTrackerLA
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5276
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
Location: Lafayette, LA

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#294 Postby PTrackerLA » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:37 am

So this will be Beta, wow. At least Beta sounds a lot less threatening than Alpha :lol: .
3 likes   

TallahasseeMan
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 120
Joined: Sat Aug 01, 2020 1:49 pm

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#295 Postby TallahasseeMan » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:40 am

aspen wrote:It’s absolutely nuts that we’re likely to end up with Wilfred, Alpha, and Beta all named today. What an absolute madhouse the Atlantic is.


Running an entire month ahead of 2005, incredible.
0 likes   
Direct hit: Francis '04, Jeanne '04, Wilma '05 Hermine '16 Michael '18

Outer bands: Katrina '05 Irma '17

User avatar
bg1
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 409
Joined: Fri May 13, 2011 11:14 am
Location: near Santee, SC

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#296 Postby bg1 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:50 am

TD 22 keeps getting cut in line like Spongebob trying to get his ice cream cone :lol: :lol:
6 likes   

CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34001
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#297 Postby CrazyC83 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:52 am

0 likes   

User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22951
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#298 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:57 am

wxman57 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
Some of this year's storms may not have qualified in 2005.


Just curious - which ones?


Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


Alpha absolutely would not have been named in 2005.
1 likes   

User avatar
Portastorm
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 9914
Age: 62
Joined: Fri Jul 11, 2003 9:16 am
Location: Round Rock, TX
Contact:

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#299 Postby Portastorm » Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:59 am

I guess the question I have at this point is, will Beta be fighting "fish" status?

(I'll show myself out now ... ) :wink:
7 likes   
Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.

User avatar
BYG Jacob
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 893
Age: 27
Joined: Wed Aug 23, 2017 3:46 pm
Location: Tucson, Arizona

Re: ATL: TWENTY-TWO - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#300 Postby BYG Jacob » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:00 pm

wxman57 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Just curious - which ones?


Wilfred would not have been named unless it displayed more banding. Probably Vicky, too. Don't remember what scatterometer data we had then, if any.


Alpha absolutely would not have been named in 2005.

No way you could miss Alpha's radar signature even in 2005
3 likes   


Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests