Tropical Wave in the West-Central Caribbean (Is Invest 91L)

[aspen]

The GFS-Para within 150 hrs seems to show the best-case scenario for Gamma’s development: the precursor disturbance is just a little further north and just a little slower, and gets its act tougher a little quicker, that it has just enough time to rapidly intensify before exiting the Caribbean. That burst of intensification also appears to draw Gamma north and keep it from burying into the middle of the Yucatán.

[gatorcane]

The GFS-P finally gave in and shows what the GFS and Euro have been insisting and that is into the Yucatan and generally weak. I think the GFS-P needs more tweaking before it can replace the current GFS.

[Loveweather12]

Things could change. Something about that track isn’t right. Would wait to see an actual center form before leading people to think they don’t need to watch it or that the season is over.

The GFS-P finally gave in and shows what the GFS and Euro have been insisting and that is into the Yucatan. I think the GFS-P needs more tweaking before it can replace the current GFS.

[Loveweather12]

The GFS isn’t the brightest either.

The GFS-P finally gave in and shows what the GFS and Euro have been insisting and that is into the Yucatan and generally weak. I think the GFS-P needs more tweaking before it can replace the current GFS.

[AutoPenalti]

The GFS-P finally gave in and shows what the GFS and Euro have been insisting and that is into the Yucatan and generally weak. I think the GFS-P needs more tweaking before it can replace the current GFS.

Nah, I think all models need tweaking, especially with what we gone through.

[FireRat]

So you’re saying not to watch this storm anymore?

Our luck continues and going against climatology I’ll stay here and watch all the storms miss the peninsula in the safe zone.The panhandle is not under the deflector shield.

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

[toad strangler]

After seeing the Para go as far west as the Yucatan this morning I knew it was caving. So we sit and wait for what really happens

[Ubuntwo]

So you’re saying not to watch this storm anymore?

Our luck continues and going against climatology I’ll stay here and watch all the storms miss the peninsula in the safe zone.The panhandle is not under the deflector shield.

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

[toad strangler]

So you’re saying not to watch this storm anymore?

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

[aspen]

18z GFS: yet another SA/Yucatán run, but Gamma’s vorticity gets tougher a little quicker and is more defined as it nears landfall in Belize. Development could be starting as early as 48 hours.

[TheStormExpert]

I think part of the reason why models are far less enthusiastic with this area is that Marie in the Eastern Pacific is forecasted to become a major hurricane and induce shear in this region.

[SconnieCane]

I think part of the reason why models are far less enthusiastic with this area is that Marie in the Eastern Pacific is forecasted to become a major hurricane and induce shear in this region.

I would think Marie would be moving far enough west to not be an issue. Atlantic TCs have coexisted in far closer proximity to one another than Marie will be to the western Caribbean in a few days (ex. Irma and Jose in 2017).

[AxaltaRacing24]

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

yeah, i was about to say, didn't we just have a cat 3 hit the peninsula 3 years ago?

[caneseddy]

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

yeah, i was about to say, didn't we just have a cat 3 hit the peninsula 3 years ago?

Ah but Irma doesn’t count according to some posters because it didn’t landfall in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach

As to the disturbance models are having issues sorting out what is happening right now; something will develop there by end of week but I doubt will be a hurricane

[aspen]

18z has this survive crossing the Yucutan Peninsula and re-intensify in the Bay of Campeche, comparable to Earl '16 or Franklin '17.

[jlauderdal]

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

yeah, i was about to say, didn't we just have a cat 3 hit the peninsula 3 years ago?

Ah but Irma doesn’t count according to some posters because it didn’t landfall in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach

As to the disturbance models are having issues sorting out what is happening right now; something will develop there by end of week but I doubt will be a hurricane

It only matters if it hit SE florida..

[Ubuntwo]

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

Yep, and SE FL isn't far past the avg return period for a major anyways. Nothing unprecedented.

OT but coastal Georgia... over 30 years past the return period for a hurricane! Lucky bunch.

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS has this sitting in the BOC for 90 hours, becoming a 'cane for a short period. Manages to get shredded before a second landfall.

[StAuggy]

You know guys, sometimes I wonder if this "FL shield" is a result of the models taking the last 14 years into consideration for possibly calculating a track based on recent clinatology? Perhaps the fact is that all the misses South FL has seen since 2006, somehow screw with the models' forecast tracks, leading to such funny outcomes, hence the peninsular FL shield

If only the global models had a direct consideration for climatology

The apparent "shield" is just observational, a coincidence of the steering currents over the past 15 years. Late season troughs haven't been progressive enough to bring WCarib storms to South Florida, and peak season ridging hasn't fallen in the 'goldilocks zone' to carry an intense storm north of the Caribbean but south of the Carolinas. A good stroke of luck!

This. If one does a little research, you will find multiple long duration "breaks" since 1851 ... and really, Irma kinda broke that streak already anyway. Issue is she hit in WESTERN SOUTH FL away from the megalopolis. The force field is a playful hoax

Between Matthew and Dorian which both could have easily been incredibly disastrous for FL and then with Irma making landfall in the same 4 year period I think it’s safe to say the “forcefield’s” days are numbered. Not to mention Tampa Bay would easily qualify as a bad bad place to see a big storm.... possibly worse than Miami? I don’t know the topography well enough to say Tampa would be worse than Miami-Dade. The average is 15 years for a south Florida major.

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS is active once again.