ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Ready to go.

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1313108695073652739

[cheezyWXguy]

Convective trends are already concerning this morning. The microwave eye posted earlier seems legit to me, as towers already seem to be rotating around the center fairly rapidly

[GCANE]

Good layering of the cirrus from the new hot tower.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1313112931777867778

[St0rmTh0r]

This almost never ends well this storm is rapidly organizing in a hot spot and it only gets hotter from here.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Rocket fuel waters + other conditions favorable + storm not moving West at a rapid pace =

Just saying if the conditions pan out as forecasted the possibility is certainly there for something beastly.

[StPeteMike]

Until Gamma is gone, I think models aren’t quite certain on Delta’s track yet. A stronger Gamma made a track towards LA more sense, as the two storms would have somewhat of a Fujiwara Effect while in the GOM. But with Gamma likely (but not 100%) dissipating before Delta enters the Gulf and a stronger than predicted storm, I won’t buy into the models yet.

You are going against all conventional wisdom and thought and based off of the influence Gamna will have. You are basically a contrarian in this case. Just saying.

Models a few days ago still had Gamma as a weak TS in the BOC.... as well as many struggled to forecast Delta passing hurricane strength. It’s not much of me going against anything, just unable to put much faith on models more than 2 days out when ones like GFS barely showed a storm entering the GOM 0z Sunday.

[GCANE]

Hot Tower
Warm Core
Infeed

[tomatkins]

I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.

The NHC had this track for Gamma from the get go - the GFS a week ago had this general trend (into the gulf and then southwest) - although it did have the center getting closer to Florida than it ultimately did.

[AutoPenalti]

I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.

The NHC had this track for Gamma from the get go - the GFS a week ago had this general trend (into the gulf and then southwest) - although it did have the center getting closer to Florida than it ultimately did.

Gamma was further NW when NHC initiated advisories, at the position Delta is in now, we still weren't quite sure where this was going considering the upper level pattern.

[kevin]

Most recent IR loop:

[edu2703]

 https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1313102706979098624

[aspen]

Is recon taking off at 15z or 18z today?

[Kazmit]

Eye feature?

[SconnieCane]

https://twitter.com/TheSteveCop/status/1313102706979098624

Current NHC forecast intensities for the next couple days might turn out to be very conservative. 6Z hurricane model runs are looking more and more like an anomaly.

[St0rmTh0r]

Hot Tower
Warm Core
Infeed

https://i.imgur.com/N6Tn2Io.png

Classic precursor to rapid intensification nail biting times ahead!

[MGC]

Delta is organizing at a good clip this morning. Could be a cat 3 in central gulf but should weaken as the hurricane approaches coast. Reminds me of Hilda in 1964, my first TC......MGC

[SconnieCane]

Delta is organizing at a good clip this morning. Could be a cat 3 in central gulf but should weaken as the hurricane approaches coast. Reminds me of Hilda in 1964, my first TC......MGC

More than a Cat. 3 at this rate, over that OHC.

[cainjamin]

Delta is reminding me a lot of 2002 Lili. Fast moving storm that reached its peak in the central gulf before weakening prior to landfall. The increased organization were seeing today already is pretty concerning.