ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Convective trends are already concerning this morning. The microwave eye posted earlier seems legit to me, as towers already seem to be rotating around the center fairly rapidly
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Good layering of the cirrus from the new hot tower.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
This almost never ends well this storm is rapidly organizing in a hot spot and it only gets hotter from here.
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- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Rocket fuel waters + other conditions favorable + storm not moving West at a rapid pace =
Just saying if the conditions pan out as forecasted the possibility is certainly there for something beastly.

Just saying if the conditions pan out as forecasted the possibility is certainly there for something beastly.
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- StPeteMike
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
3090 wrote:StPeteMike wrote:Until Gamma is gone, I think models aren’t quite certain on Delta’s track yet. A stronger Gamma made a track towards LA more sense, as the two storms would have somewhat of a Fujiwara Effect while in the GOM. But with Gamma likely (but not 100%) dissipating before Delta enters the Gulf and a stronger than predicted storm, I won’t buy into the models yet.
You are going against all conventional wisdom and thought and based off of the influence Gamna will have. You are basically a contrarian in this case. Just saying.
Models a few days ago still had Gamma as a weak TS in the BOC.... as well as many struggled to forecast Delta passing hurricane strength. It’s not much of me going against anything, just unable to put much faith on models more than 2 days out when ones like GFS barely showed a storm entering the GOM 0z Sunday.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AutoPenalti wrote:I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.
The NHC had this track for Gamma from the get go - the GFS a week ago had this general trend (into the gulf and then southwest) - although it did have the center getting closer to Florida than it ultimately did.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
tomatkins wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:I'm just realizing how far SE Delta is compared to Gamma and here we are with landfall probabilities closing in on somebody on the coast when at the same position, a couple of days ago, models showed Gamma concentrating towards SFL. Difference being that Gamma didn't have a player that would influence track deviations.
The NHC had this track for Gamma from the get go - the GFS a week ago had this general trend (into the gulf and then southwest) - although it did have the center getting closer to Florida than it ultimately did.
Gamma was further NW when NHC initiated advisories, at the position Delta is in now, we still weren't quite sure where this was going considering the upper level pattern.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is recon taking off at 15z or 18z today?
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Eye feature?


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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Current NHC forecast intensities for the next couple days might turn out to be very conservative. 6Z hurricane model runs are looking more and more like an anomaly.

Last edited by SconnieCane on Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Classic precursor to rapid intensification nail biting times ahead!
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- MGC
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Delta is organizing at a good clip this morning. Could be a cat 3 in central gulf but should weaken as the hurricane approaches coast. Reminds me of Hilda in 1964, my first TC......MGC
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
MGC wrote:Delta is organizing at a good clip this morning. Could be a cat 3 in central gulf but should weaken as the hurricane approaches coast. Reminds me of Hilda in 1964, my first TC......MGC
More than a Cat. 3 at this rate, over that OHC.
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- cainjamin
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Re: ATL: DELTA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Delta is reminding me a lot of 2002 Lili. Fast moving storm that reached its peak in the central gulf before weakening prior to landfall. The increased organization were seeing today already is pretty concerning.
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