2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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toad strangler
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3061 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:22 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
toad strangler wrote:From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.


Well anything is possible of course. It would just be highly anomalous.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3062 Postby GeneratorPower » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:22 am

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The lster we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of sereng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°


It may well be that the hurricane season runs later than usual this year. 2005 was pumping out storms until Dec 31. Not really expecting that here but an encore presentation seems plausible.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3063 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:27 am

toad strangler wrote:From the East? Man, I don't know ...


Check this out. It could very come from the Caribbean. If this ridging is around its 2020 who says no from the east. Eventually though I suspect this current pattern will break down to more of an east coast trof as we get deeper into Oct.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3064 Postby Loveweather12 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:46 am

When could the is possibly form? Couldn’t see the dates? And I was surprised a storm might form ATL and come in from East?


SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:From the East? Man, I don't know ...


Check this out. It could very come from the Caribbean. If this ridging is around its 2020 who says no from the east. Eventually though I suspect this current pattern will break down to more of an east coast trof as we get deeper into Oct.

https://i.imgur.com/4EUhXkS.gif
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3065 Postby MarioProtVI » Tue Oct 06, 2020 9:36 am

Shell Mound wrote:There’s been a wall of shear over the western Caribbean since at least 2011. Why should it let up just now? Furthermore, shear thus far has been consistently higher than in a typical Niña year, hence lower-than-expected ACE to date. At this point I think the western Caribbean will continue to be a “dead zone” as far as major hurricanes are concerned, owing to the influence of Niño-like TUTT and STJ activity. As someone previously mentioned, another Michael in the Gulf of Mexico would be exceptional.

This aged extremely poorly given the current situation.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3066 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:32 am

northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The later we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of seeng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°


And a wave currently near the CV islands I believe so it looks like it’s not a phantom but need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean by late this month again it looks like
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3067 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:35 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Yeah, we can not get complacent in Florida. We have been extremely lucky in 2020 with tropical activity missing most of the peninsula, except the extreme western panhandle.

But, there is a hint of a CAG to form across the Western Caribbean during the next 10 days and that could be genesis of another tropical cyclone later this month. The later we get into October, the more climatology will settle in and the chances of seeng these cyclones getting.picked up by mid-latitude troughs and affecting Florida increase significantly.

STAY TUNED!!!!!°


And a wave currently near the CV islands I believe so it looks like it’s not a phantom but need to keep an eye on the western Caribbean by late this month again it looks like


...and Delta is booking right along over waters where the warmth goes very deep...a cold wake won't be much if any of an issue.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3068 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 06, 2020 11:54 am

GeneratorPower wrote:
toad strangler wrote:From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.

In mid-late October threats to Florida and the remainder of the U.S. East Coast from the east are very uncommon. Don’t even think I can recall of one. Now if it’s another wave or something that manages to get into the Western Caribbean then that seems far more believable.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3069 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:58 pm

Who’s ready to this this Caribbean thing again?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3070 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:04 pm

Still loading but strong long range signal from the GEFS. Development starts around 240hrs from the far SW Caribbean heading north.

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3071 Postby Loveweather12 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:04 pm

More runs are hinting at development?

SFLcane wrote:Who’s ready to this this Caribbean thing again?
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3072 Postby Shell Mound » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
toad strangler wrote:From the East? Man, I don't know ...

Why not? It seems unclimatological but not impossible.

In mid-late October threats to Florida and the remainder of the U.S. East Coast from the east are very uncommon. Don’t even think I can recall of one. Now if it’s another wave or something that manages to get into the Western Caribbean then that seems far more believable.

There have been four (M)H impacts on the east coast of Florida in October/November since 1851: 1904 (C1), 1935 (C2), 1941 (C2), and King ‘50 (C4). (Additionally, Inez ‘66 [C1] also struck the Keys from the east.) While quite rare, these impacts do occur from time to time. The 1935 “Yankee” hurricane is noteworthy standout, as is Cat-4 King ‘50, the latter of which rapidly deepened pre-landfall. The October ‘41 system intensified into a 105-knot Cat-3 in the Bahamas before striking Dade County as a Cat-2.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3073 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:16 pm

:eek:

Image
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3074 Postby SconnieCane » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:30 pm



Cue "Jaws" theme...
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3075 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:51 pm



LOL watch this one go way wide right of the peninsula. Maybe we can name it Norwood.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3076 Postby Loveweather12 » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:52 pm

Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come
toad strangler wrote:


LOL watch this one go way wide right of the peninsula. Maybe we can name it Scott Norwood.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3077 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:57 pm

Loveweather12 wrote:Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come
toad strangler wrote:


Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3078 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:06 pm



Look at the progged rainfall from these active members! Arguably, this is as strong a long range signal as any yet from the W Caribbean on the GEFS! So, it looks like we MAY get a 3rd Oct W Car TC. When I get time, I'd like to find the years that had 3+ in Oct.

Image

As noted, by you, climo would very strongly favor anything developing there that late (10/17-19) to recurve either over or east of FL per this:

Image
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3079 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:07 pm

northjaxpro wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come
toad strangler wrote:


Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.


I'm not complacent. It was a joke. :roll:
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Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3080 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:26 pm

toad strangler wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Loveweather12 wrote:Don’t be complacent about Florida getting hit. When that happens, usually the storms come


Yes, I elaborated on this a couple of pages back. People in Florida can not have their guard down going into ĺater in October. This is not the time to get complacent, especially in this crazy 2020 year.



I'm not complacent. It was a joke. :roll:


No problem. Just a friendly reminder though!
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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