2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[CyclonicFury]

Great news!
 https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120

[Kazmit]

Great news!
https://twitter.com/ECMWF/status/1313780646259589120

That's awesome! I assume it will take a little time for Levi to add it to Tropical Tidbits?

[chris_fit]

Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.

[SFLcane]

Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.

Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.

[GeneratorPower]

Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.

Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.

The problem is so bad, now they're *giving* it away.

[SFLcane]

Speaking of the EURO, the EPS are all crickets in the long range.

Come on now this model has been asleep most of the year until a tropical cyclone is formed.

The problem is so bad, now they're *giving* it away.

Yep and with those graphics from 2007 lol.

[SFLcane]

18z GEFS...

These heading north and east across SFL. We will see if signal there in a week.

[AutoPenalti]

That’s 3/4 runs that propagates something from the Western Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/weather_chest/status/1313915596497707010

[SFLcane]

06z GEFS is now showing development under 200 hrs.

[aspen]

The 06z GFS and 00z CMC both show a TC developing in the central MDR this weekend. It looks to be a pretty low latitude, so it could end up in the Caribbean eventually, even if it barely develops in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

[SouthFLTropics]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

With all due respect, it is way too early to be sounding the all clear for South Florida. Let's remember that Wilma didn't hit till late in the month. We're not out of the woods yet.

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

You’re basing this off a storm that has yet to form???

[chris_fit]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

You mean like they did a few times with Gamma and Delta? You can't look at track at all this far out, especially with nothing developed yet. Ens/Models at this stage just give us hints of possible development in a general region.

[SFLcane]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

oh lord...nothing has even formed yet we are watching for the potential in the ensembles. No one is breathing easy.

[TheStormExpert]

GEFS ensembles have shifted east over eastern Cuba and the SE Bahamas in regards with any potential Western Caribbean development in the long-range.

Breathing a lot easier here in Florida this morning as the window is quickly closing on any potential threats from the Western Caribbean.

With all due respect, it is way too early to be sounding the all clear for South Florida. Let's remember that Wilma didn't hit till late in the month. We're not out of the woods yet.

We might not be just yet but we’re quickly getting there! 00z GEFS Ensembles were limited, while 06z shifted east to completely missing Florida now.

Not sure how much more lucky we can get IF we manage to make it the next few weeks without something as the other two seasons like this (1933 and 2005) featured multiple hurricane threats to the peninsula.

[SFLcane]

00z Canadian ensembles...