2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SconnieCane]

How does it plow NE right into increasing pressures?, lol. Forget about all the westward corrections we just saw with the cyclone that's occurring right now?

[GeneratorPower]

There is no reason for anyone to downplay the remainder of the season aside from playing psychological games. This has been an extremely active La Nina season and looks to continue that way. I think the recent ensembles continuing to advertise development in the long range is a top sign of continued activity.

[GeneratorPower]

:larrow: How does it plow NE right into increasing pressures?, lol. Forget about all the westward corrections we just saw with the cyclone that's occurring right now?

Personally, I am only looking for activity in general areas.

[gatorcane]

The weak signal from the GEFS continues, saved loop:

[TheStormExpert]

That’s not much of a signal. Tbh, I’m beyond ready to end this LONG, record-breaking season.

Bring on the first South Florida cold front!!

[chris_fit]

Very weak signal from 12Z GFS EPS. Hopefully it continues to trend that way.

[chris_fit]

00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.

[toad strangler]

00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.

In looking at the last 5 or 6 ensemble runs the 6z appears to be way too random as activity pops out of nowhere in comparison. So, for me ....

[chris_fit]

00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.

In looking at the last 5 or 6 ensemble runs the 6z appears to be way too random as activity pops out of nowhere in comparison. So, for me ....

Yup - will have to see if the 12z and 18z follow suite for this to be taken a little more seriously.

[chris_fit]

Here's a pic - I dont usually look past 300 hours.

[chaser1]

When is a CAG not a CAG? Well, pretty sure we'll see development from the southernmost extension of yet another wave moving west through the extreme southwestern Caribbean around the 17th-20th of the month. Surface pressures remain low and pattern consistency (along with climo) would suggest the Atlantic might pull yet another (Greek) name out of it's hat. Just too far out to guess whether it'll remain buried down there or move north. Also, there's strong hints of LaNina split jet flow aloft beginning to take shape so there seems to be a closing window as to how far north any system could venture into the GOM before impacted by strong upper level westerlies. South Florida not by any means out of the woods quite yet though.

[SFLcane]

I see...

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS ENS still showing strong signal (maybe even stronger) than 06Z which was somewhat active.

[SFLcane]

12Z GFS ENS still showing strong signal (maybe even stronger) than 06Z which was somewhat active.

[kevin]

Multiple relatively strong signals in the 12z GFS ensemble.

#1: the 1st Cape Verde tropical wave. It continues to move closer in the timeframe with formation around +84 hours. Many members form a TD or TS, but most eventually dissipate, most likely due to shear. The ones that survive reactivate in the long term with a few TS or minimal cat 1 members. But that's all the way at +288 hours so not something to worry about for now.




#2: another Cape Verde wave that exits Africa at +108 hours. This wave also keeps moving closer in the time frame, which seems to indicate that it isn't some phantom wave. This wave also has quite a few associated TD/TS runs, even though none seem to survive the shear in the mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, I'd keep an eye out for this wave and expect NHC to initiate a disturbance with a low development chance if the wave stays in the models for the next 1 or 2 days.



#3: long term activity in the WCAR. I usually wouldn't mention model storms beyond +240 hours, but the GFS signal in this ensemble shows some very strong storms so I feel I can't leave it out. Around +260/+272 hours GFS shows multiple members with TC genesis in the WCAR. 3 or 4 members make it into a hurricane with one massive cat 4/5 that slams into Cancun, but of course there's no point in talking about the exact model results of a member at +312 hours. At the moment there's nothing to worry about, but it's important to look if this signal keeps moving closer in the timeframe over the next few days.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1314714456962879488

[chaser1]

I'm fairly confident we'll get at least one more storm named from one of those highlighted tropical waves.... probably two before the end of the season. Gotta think we could anticipate one in November as well. Biggest question is whether there's anything left that'll put a real hurting on anybody (stronger then a sheared tropical storm). I think the greatest risk of that might be those living in Central America, with Cuba and South Florida remaining a possibility.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1314714456962879488?s=21

If I recall correctly, the CFS was showing several Caribbean TCs towards the end of October. I guess it might’ve picked up on the positive CCKW.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1314714456962879488?s=21

So why does the CAG have to spin up into a tropical cyclone in order to go away? Can’t it just wash itself out over Central America?

Don’t know much a whole lot about this so any input would be greatly appreciated!

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1314714456962879488?s=21

If I recall correctly, the CFS was showing several Caribbean TCs towards the end of October. I guess it might’ve picked up on the positive CCKW.

It also showed some more Tropical Atlantic/Cape Verde action which we’re likely seeing with the 10/20 area.