2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
SconnieCane
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 998
Joined: Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Location: Madison, WI

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3141 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Oct 08, 2020 9:11 am

:larrow: How does it plow NE right into increasing pressures?, lol. Forget about all the westward corrections we just saw with the cyclone that's occurring right now? :lol:
2 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3142 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:28 am

There is no reason for anyone to downplay the remainder of the season aside from playing psychological games. This has been an extremely active La Nina season and looks to continue that way. I think the recent ensembles continuing to advertise development in the long range is a top sign of continued activity.
8 likes   

User avatar
GeneratorPower
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1648
Age: 45
Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
Location: Huntsville, AL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3143 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Oct 08, 2020 11:30 am

SconnieCane wrote::larrow: How does it plow NE right into increasing pressures?, lol. Forget about all the westward corrections we just saw with the cyclone that's occurring right now? :lol:

Personally, I am only looking for activity in general areas.
3 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23691
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3144 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 08, 2020 12:57 pm

The weak signal from the GEFS continues, saved loop:

Image
2 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3145 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:42 pm

:uarrow: That’s not much of a signal. Tbh, I’m beyond ready to end this LONG, record-breaking season.

Bring on the first South Florida cold front!! :D
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3146 Postby chris_fit » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:01 pm

Very weak signal from 12Z GFS EPS. Hopefully it continues to trend that way.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3147 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:39 am

00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.
1 likes   

User avatar
toad strangler
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4543
Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2013 3:09 pm
Location: Earth
Contact:

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3148 Postby toad strangler » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:55 am

chris_fit wrote:00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.


In looking at the last 5 or 6 ensemble runs the 6z appears to be way too random as activity pops out of nowhere in comparison. So, for me .... :Can:
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3149 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:57 am

toad strangler wrote:
chris_fit wrote:00Z GFS Ens were VERY lackluster. On the contrary, through 280 hours So far, the 06 GFS Ens give the strongest signal yet - with development starting within 10 days in the W Carib.


In looking at the last 5 or 6 ensemble runs the 6z appears to be way too random as activity pops out of nowhere in comparison. So, for me .... :Can:


Yup - will have to see if the 12z and 18z follow suite for this to be taken a little more seriously.
0 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3150 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:01 am

Here's a pic - I dont usually look past 300 hours.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5465
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3151 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:38 am

When is a CAG not a CAG? Well, pretty sure we'll see development from the southernmost extension of yet another wave moving west through the extreme southwestern Caribbean around the 17th-20th of the month. Surface pressures remain low and pattern consistency (along with climo) would suggest the Atlantic might pull yet another (Greek) name out of it's hat. Just too far out to guess whether it'll remain buried down there or move north. Also, there's strong hints of LaNina split jet flow aloft beginning to take shape so there seems to be a closing window as to how far north any system could venture into the GOM before impacted by strong upper level westerlies. South Florida not by any means out of the woods quite yet though.
3 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3152 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:06 am

I see...

Image

Image
4 likes   

User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3222
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3153 Postby chris_fit » Fri Oct 09, 2020 12:58 pm

12Z GFS ENS still showing strong signal (maybe even stronger) than 06Z which was somewhat active.
0 likes   

User avatar
SFLcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10163
Age: 47
Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
Location: Lake Worth Florida

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3154 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:40 pm

chris_fit wrote:12Z GFS ENS still showing strong signal (maybe even stronger) than 06Z which was somewhat active.


:eek:

Image
1 likes   

User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3155 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 09, 2020 2:40 pm

Multiple relatively strong signals in the 12z GFS ensemble.

#1: the 1st Cape Verde tropical wave. It continues to move closer in the timeframe with formation around +84 hours. Many members form a TD or TS, but most eventually dissipate, most likely due to shear. The ones that survive reactivate in the long term with a few TS or minimal cat 1 members. But that's all the way at +288 hours so not something to worry about for now.

Image
Image

#2: another Cape Verde wave that exits Africa at +108 hours. This wave also keeps moving closer in the time frame, which seems to indicate that it isn't some phantom wave. This wave also has quite a few associated TD/TS runs, even though none seem to survive the shear in the mid-Atlantic. Nevertheless, I'd keep an eye out for this wave and expect NHC to initiate a disturbance with a low development chance if the wave stays in the models for the next 1 or 2 days.

Image

#3: long term activity in the WCAR. I usually wouldn't mention model storms beyond +240 hours, but the GFS signal in this ensemble shows some very strong storms so I feel I can't leave it out. Around +260/+272 hours GFS shows multiple members with TC genesis in the WCAR. 3 or 4 members make it into a hurricane with one massive cat 4/5 that slams into Cancun, but of course there's no point in talking about the exact model results of a member at +312 hours. At the moment there's nothing to worry about, but it's important to look if this signal keeps moving closer in the timeframe over the next few days.

Image
Image
9 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3156 Postby supercane4867 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 6:54 pm

0 likes   

User avatar
chaser1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5465
Age: 64
Joined: Sat Oct 15, 2005 5:59 pm
Location: Longwood, Fl

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3157 Postby chaser1 » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:06 pm

:uarrow: I'm fairly confident we'll get at least one more storm named from one of those highlighted tropical waves.... probably two before the end of the season. Gotta think we could anticipate one in November as well. Biggest question is whether there's anything left that'll put a real hurting on anybody (stronger then a sheared tropical storm). I think the greatest risk of that might be those living in Central America, with Cuba and South Florida remaining a possibility.
0 likes   
Andy D

(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)

User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3158 Postby aspen » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:29 pm


If I recall correctly, the CFS was showing several Caribbean TCs towards the end of October. I guess it might’ve picked up on the positive CCKW.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.

TheStormExpert

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3159 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:16 pm


So why does the CAG have to spin up into a tropical cyclone in order to go away? Can’t it just wash itself out over Central America?

Don’t know much a whole lot about this so any input would be greatly appreciated!
1 likes   

TheStormExpert

Re: 2020 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#3160 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Oct 09, 2020 8:18 pm

aspen wrote:

If I recall correctly, the CFS was showing several Caribbean TCs towards the end of October. I guess it might’ve picked up on the positive CCKW.

It also showed some more Tropical Atlantic/Cape Verde action which we’re likely seeing with the 10/20 area.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot] and 48 guests