ATL: ZETA - Models
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- Nancy Smar
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ATL: ZETA - Models
Only model runs.
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z GFS also has considerably more organized vort in the GOM compared to its past 4 runs:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z ICON...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
00z Euro... Seems to split the energy sending N half through SFL and S half into the GOM...
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Hurricane Eye Experience: David 79, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05... EYE COMING MY WAY IN 2024…
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z HMON, TS/cat 1 landfall in Cuba followed by a cat 1 landfall in Florida with a peak as a cat 2 before its 2nd landfall.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z HMON... Cat 2 into SFL in 4-5 days...
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z Para is spinning this up south of Cuba and bringing it north through 60 hours.
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Fourth Generation Floridian...With lots of storm knowledge passed down from my elders...
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Woah! I never expected this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Very Aggressive with this one, that is a CAT 2 for sure with the 6z ICON model.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
HMON seems to take it straight north too quickly. I'd expect it to cross Cuba near the western tip, resulting in much less disruption assuming it's an established cyclone by then.
Meanwhle, EURO appears to want to take it into (where else? ) SW LA.
Meanwhle, EURO appears to want to take it into (where else? ) SW LA.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The west shift is a major concern, if the models keep trending in that direction. This would give 95L more time to organize and feed over very warm ssts. I am growing more concerned if this actually plays out this weekend.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
kevin wrote:ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.
NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
ronjon wrote:06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf®ion=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6
I would not buy into this. Surprised the HWRF is being less aggressive about this on this run. I bet this changes as time progresses.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
- gatorcane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Missing frames GFS-P, around peninsula Florida it goes, landfall in the panhandle.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
ronjon wrote:kevin wrote:ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.
NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.
Yesterday, it was at 10-30, it really improved overnight, literally.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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