ATL: ZETA - Models

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: ZETA - Models

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Fri Oct 23, 2020 3:27 am

Only model runs.
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#2 Postby SFLcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:33 am

Icon has a 978mb hurricane near eastern tip of Cuba. :eek:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#3 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:07 am

06z GFS also has considerably more organized vort in the GOM compared to its past 4 runs:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#4 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:27 am

Image
06z ICON...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#5 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:31 am

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00z Euro... Seems to split the energy sending N half through SFL and S half into the GOM...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#6 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:38 am

06z HMON, TS/cat 1 landfall in Cuba followed by a cat 1 landfall in Florida with a peak as a cat 2 before its 2nd landfall.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#7 Postby Blown Away » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:41 am

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06z HMON... Cat 2 into SFL in 4-5 days...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#8 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 6:41 am

06Z ICON:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#9 Postby SouthFLTropics » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:17 am

06z Para is spinning this up south of Cuba and bringing it north through 60 hours.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#10 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:25 am

Woah! I never expected this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#11 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:27 am


Very Aggressive with this one, that is a CAT 2 for sure with the 6z ICON model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#12 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:27 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#13 Postby kevin » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:38 am

ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#14 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:42 am

06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#15 Postby SconnieCane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:44 am

HMON seems to take it straight north too quickly. I'd expect it to cross Cuba near the western tip, resulting in much less disruption assuming it's an established cyclone by then.

Meanwhle, EURO appears to want to take it into (where else? :roll: ) SW LA.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#16 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:45 am

The west shift is a major concern, if the models keep trending in that direction. This would give 95L more time to organize and feed over very warm ssts. I am growing more concerned if this actually plays out this weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#17 Postby ronjon » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:47 am

kevin wrote:ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.


NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#18 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:48 am

ronjon wrote:06z HWRF...gets low pressure down to 1005 mb or so near Cuba but weakens it as it moves north in the eastern GOM (go figure for once it doesn't overdo intensity).

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=hwrf&region=95L&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020102306&fh=6


I would not buy into this. Surprised the HWRF is being less aggressive about this on this run. I bet this changes as time progresses.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#19 Postby gatorcane » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:51 am

Missing frames GFS-P, around peninsula Florida it goes, landfall in the panhandle.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#20 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:51 am

ronjon wrote:
kevin wrote:ICON and now also the GFS ensemble with a significant west shift to the point where a Gulf storm without Cuba interaction (or only minor interaction) might become a serious scenario. But there are still a lot of options possible from the HMON solution directly over central Cuba and into the eastern part of SFL or a Gulf storm with possible landfalls in western SFL or even the Panhandle. Or nothing could form at all. Either way, interesting days ahead.


NHC now moving their orange development area at 50/60% into the SE GOM at 8 am TWO.

Yesterday, it was at 10-30, it really improved overnight, literally.
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