ATL: ZETA - Models

[Blown Away]

Do any of the models show a significant system? I’ve only seen duds.

HMON is farthest E into SFL as TS/Cat1... The ones W of FL peninsula a TD at best... As of now W into EGOM is low level swirl, except ICON...

[Iceresistance]

Is there radar active at Southern Cuba? It would be very useful to ID the center of 95L.

It's been posted on the discussion thread...not the best link here:

http://www.weather.gov.ky/radar_images/ ... km_ppi.gif

Until recon data is fed into the models, I dont think they will be much help. Nowcasting until Sunday will be the best forecast in my amatuer opinion.

The circulation is hard to spot on IR or even the radar at the Cayman Islands until we have recon. But there is no recon expected for a while. :/

[SouthFLTropics]

00z HWRF coming in stronger south of Cuba through 27 hours.


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[SouthFLTropics]

Through 75 hours, HWRF much stronger.


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[sma10]

I think Euro is saying "Louisiana, 2020 ain't done with yet"

[underthwx]

I think Euro is saying "Louisiana, 2020 ain't done with yet"

Has the Euro been the furthest West?...I don't personally feel that 95L will make it that far West, based on front forecasted.....

[Ivanhater]

06Z

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[TheStormExpert]

Good, we don’t need the rain! Fortunately if it heads north it’s game over in terms of intensity. Maybe another Marco, but who would’ve guessed another northern gulf coast threat.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1319977316244725764

[NDG]

06z Euro, at 90 hrs stronger with 95L than its previous 0z run.

[tolakram]

Once again the long range crazy GFS showed we would have a storm. Some get fixated on the track and strength, which is almost always wrong, but the fact is GFS showed something while Euro showed nothing. Something wins. Ironically the short range GFS now has near nothing. It's a tough model to read, but I think even in its current state adds value to medium range forecasts.

[cp79]

Wow what a west shift. There is seriously a fan or something blowing systems away from Florida this year and redirecting them to Louisiana.

[tailgater]

CMC has a weak system in the mid GOM but look whats going on in northern Texas and Oklahoma, cra cra!

[SFLcane]

Wow what a west shift. There is seriously a fan or something blowing systems away from Florida this year and redirecting them to Louisiana.

Yep, that fan blowing all year long.

[kevin]

12z ICON slightly further east in the short term compared to 06z. 06z made landfall on Yucatan and went significantly inland, 12z also still makes landfall there but stays above land for a shorter period of time. Slightly stronger than 06z due to this (peak of 989 mbar). Landfall position in the US is slightly further west around Mobile & the Alabama/Mississippi border.

[Spacecoast]

[cp79]

One thing to keep in mind is we don’t even have an LLC yet and the storms seem to be drifting SW and many models are moving it N today. So it’s a little Mitch-like in that it’s kinda just doing what it wants right now.

[TheStormExpert]

Wow what a west shift. There is seriously a fan or something blowing systems away from Florida this year and redirecting them to Louisiana.

Yep, that fan blowing all year long.

It’s insane to think that out of likely 28 storms that all have missed at least the Florida peninsula to the east, west, and south. That Hurricane shield/repellent must be legitimately real.

[LarryWx]

12Z UK coming in a bit further E at Destin moving ENE and it is also stronger at 988 implying cat 1 H. It then deepens to 979 over N NC!

Also note that this has a west drift for the first 36 hours to the WSW of Caymans.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.10.2020 0 18.5N 83.2W 1007 23
0000UTC 25.10.2020 12 18.6N 83.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 25.10.2020 24 18.6N 84.0W 1005 24
0000UTC 26.10.2020 36 18.7N 84.8W 1004 24
1200UTC 26.10.2020 48 19.0N 84.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 27.10.2020 60 20.6N 86.5W 1001 34
1200UTC 27.10.2020 72 21.7N 88.8W 1001 36
0000UTC 28.10.2020 84 22.8N 90.9W 999 40
1200UTC 28.10.2020 96 23.6N 92.4W 995 41
0000UTC 29.10.2020 108 25.2N 93.0W 990 47
1200UTC 29.10.2020 120 27.2N 91.6W 986 51
0000UTC 30.10.2020 132 30.0N 87.0W 988 53
1200UTC 30.10.2020 144 36.3N 77.8W 979 51

Is 18.5N, 83.2W accurate for 8AM today?

This track is 75 miles NW of 1985’s H Kate.

[gatorcane]

Quite a cutoff low that helps build an anomalously strong SE ridge which would steer invest 95l away from the Florida peninsula. Between the rainy season which is going longer than normal and this ridge, feels like we are a month behind and it is Sept 24.

Note: this pattern should not be a surprise, last winter we saw a lot of the same thing with a trough out west and SE ridge in the east.