ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Dean4Storms
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#401 Postby Dean4Storms » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:17 pm

This isn't really going to start moving much until Monday when that Ridge slides over the Gulf Coast and eventually builds over the SE and FL. That should propel likely Zeta by then toward the WNW or NW at increasing forward speeds. I'm like Wxman, think the Euro is too fast west on Zeta with too much ridge.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#402 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:36 pm

Dean4Storms wrote:This isn't really going to start moving much until Monday when that Ridge slides over the Gulf Coast and eventually builds over the SE and FL. That should propel likely Zeta by then toward the WNW or NW at increasing forward speeds. I'm like Wxman, think the Euro is too fast west on Zeta with too much ridge.


This is proving to be yet another very uncertain system to forecast...
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#403 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:36 pm

That massive blob of convection makes it seem like the exact center might be migrating to the south.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#404 Postby cp79 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:00 pm

Systems down there are the most unpredictable of any region in the Atlantic Basin. I’ll never forget Mitch and how Fla was getting worried because models had it heading our way and then it just ducks south into Honduras. Wilma was another that went way slower than anyone anticipated and moved the track much further south. It went from hitting the Big Bend to Naples.

It’s just such a tough region to forecast because steering winds are just so weak and they tend to meander down there.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#405 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:08 pm

cp79 wrote:Systems down there are the most unpredictable of any region in the Atlantic Basin. I’ll never forget Mitch and how Fla was getting worried because models had it heading our way and then it just ducks south into Honduras. Wilma was another that went way slower than anyone anticipated and moved the track much further south. It went from hitting the Big Bend to Naples.

It’s just such a tough region to forecast because steering winds are just so weak and they tend to meander down there.


Mitch ultimately hit SFL as a strong TS... Yes, those legendary weak steering currents in that area this time of year and very unpredictable...
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#406 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:10 pm

28/Zeta will be moving very slowly over broiling OHC for 24-30 hours starting late tomorrow. Absolutely nuclear grade OHC. Gotta watch out for quick core development.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#407 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:21 pm

Convection is blowing up to the SE of the 8pm position... If that center is near under that convection and not up @18.9N/83.1 W per 8pm update TD28 may explode... If the 18.9N/83.1W broad LLC is still the center it’s almost void of convection and has lots of work to do... May be enough for Zeta at 11pm IMO...
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#408 Postby ElectricStorm » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:25 pm

aspen wrote:28/Zeta will be moving very slowly over broiling OHC for 24-30 hours starting late tomorrow. Absolutely nuclear grade OHC. Gotta watch out for quick core development.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al28/ohcnfcst/2020al28_ohcnfcst_202010241800.gif

Yeah this for sure has a decent chance at becoming a major. Assuming it stacks soon
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#409 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:31 pm

Blown Away wrote:Convection is blowing up to the SE of the 8pm position... If that center is near under that convection and not up @18.9N/83.1 W per 8pm update TD28 may explode... If the 18.9N/83.1W broad LLC is still the center it’s almost void of convection and has lots of work to do... May be enough for Zeta at 11pm IMO...

Isn’t recon heading out at 5-6z? We could have direct data on the exact LLC/MLC locations in time for the 5am advisory, or the 8am intermediate.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#410 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:35 pm

Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#411 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:38 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/Ps7L2tf.jpg


The 8pm position was 18.9N/83.1W which is NW of that circular blob, so if the 8pm is correct TD28 has much work to do...
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#412 Postby aspen » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:41 pm

Blown Away wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/Ps7L2tf.jpg


The 8pm position was 18.9N/83.1W which is NW of that circular blob, so if the 8pm is correct TD28 has much work to do...

If it’s not...oh boy.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#413 Postby ClarCari » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:43 pm

11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#414 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:46 pm

ClarCari wrote:11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.


Also made it clear “more uncertain than usual” with regards to track...
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#415 Postby ClarCari » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:53 pm

Blown Away wrote:
ClarCari wrote:11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.


Also made it clear “more uncertain than usual” with regards to track...

True and their discussion pointed out that a center relocation may happen as we think it will.
Hopefully recon gets there at a perfect time to get a better sense of this thing!
Last edited by ClarCari on Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:23 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#416 Postby tiger_deF » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:08 pm

That is some serious convection 28 is firing to the south, pretty broad swath of dark purple with a good amount of lightning
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#417 Postby cycloneye » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:08 pm

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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#418 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:24 pm

Here are the most recent Gulf and NW Caribbean SSTs. They have hardly cooled since H Delta's own induced cooling near its track largely because it has been warm dominated since and actually warmer than it was in late Sep and very early Oct over the N Gulf coast! So, if anything, the shelf waters have warmed back up a tad.
So, we're left with still a very warm W Car of 84-86, a solidly warm S Gulf of 82-84, and 79+ up to ~50 miles of the N coast:

Image
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#419 Postby ClarCari » Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:01 pm

So with recon now taking off, does anyone have an idea what their flight path might be?
Will they go to where the NHC has the center first and then fly south to that huge burst of convection or would they try heading there first instead?
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Re: ATL: TWENTY-EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#420 Postby underthwx » Sat Oct 24, 2020 11:27 pm

TD 28s forecast cone, is the 7th forecast cone to touch the Louisiana coastline this hurricane season, according to NWS New Orleans....an unwanted distinction to be sure...
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Oct 25, 2020 9:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
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