ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

This isn't really going to start moving much until Monday when that Ridge slides over the Gulf Coast and eventually builds over the SE and FL. That should propel likely Zeta by then toward the WNW or NW at increasing forward speeds. I'm like Wxman, think the Euro is too fast west on Zeta with too much ridge.

[underthwx]

This isn't really going to start moving much until Monday when that Ridge slides over the Gulf Coast and eventually builds over the SE and FL. That should propel likely Zeta by then toward the WNW or NW at increasing forward speeds. I'm like Wxman, think the Euro is too fast west on Zeta with too much ridge.

This is proving to be yet another very uncertain system to forecast...

[aspen]

That massive blob of convection makes it seem like the exact center might be migrating to the south.

[cp79]

Systems down there are the most unpredictable of any region in the Atlantic Basin. I’ll never forget Mitch and how Fla was getting worried because models had it heading our way and then it just ducks south into Honduras. Wilma was another that went way slower than anyone anticipated and moved the track much further south. It went from hitting the Big Bend to Naples.

It’s just such a tough region to forecast because steering winds are just so weak and they tend to meander down there.

[Blown Away]

Systems down there are the most unpredictable of any region in the Atlantic Basin. I’ll never forget Mitch and how Fla was getting worried because models had it heading our way and then it just ducks south into Honduras. Wilma was another that went way slower than anyone anticipated and moved the track much further south. It went from hitting the Big Bend to Naples.

It’s just such a tough region to forecast because steering winds are just so weak and they tend to meander down there.

Mitch ultimately hit SFL as a strong TS... Yes, those legendary weak steering currents in that area this time of year and very unpredictable...

[aspen]

28/Zeta will be moving very slowly over broiling OHC for 24-30 hours starting late tomorrow. Absolutely nuclear grade OHC. Gotta watch out for quick core development.

[Blown Away]

Convection is blowing up to the SE of the 8pm position... If that center is near under that convection and not up @18.9N/83.1 W per 8pm update TD28 may explode... If the 18.9N/83.1W broad LLC is still the center it’s almost void of convection and has lots of work to do... May be enough for Zeta at 11pm IMO...

[ElectricStorm]

28/Zeta will be moving very slowly over broiling OHC for 24-30 hours starting late tomorrow. Absolutely nuclear grade OHC. Gotta watch out for quick core development.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al28/ohcnfcst/2020al28_ohcnfcst_202010241800.gif

Yeah this for sure has a decent chance at becoming a major. Assuming it stacks soon

[aspen]

Convection is blowing up to the SE of the 8pm position... If that center is near under that convection and not up @18.9N/83.1 W per 8pm update TD28 may explode... If the 18.9N/83.1W broad LLC is still the center it’s almost void of convection and has lots of work to do... May be enough for Zeta at 11pm IMO...

Isn’t recon heading out at 5-6z? We could have direct data on the exact LLC/MLC locations in time for the 5am advisory, or the 8am intermediate.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

[Blown Away]

Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/Ps7L2tf.jpg

The 8pm position was 18.9N/83.1W which is NW of that circular blob, so if the 8pm is correct TD28 has much work to do...

[aspen]

Has that look. In an area of warm OHC, relatively low shear, and not moving very fast. I think the bar might be a little higher than any of us might be anticipating, especially if you live-and-die by the global models. Remember Delta and Gamma.

https://i.imgur.com/Ps7L2tf.jpg

The 8pm position was 18.9N/83.1W which is NW of that circular blob, so if the 8pm is correct TD28 has much work to do...

If it’s not...oh boy.

[ClarCari]

11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.

[Blown Away]

11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.

Also made it clear “more uncertain than usual” with regards to track...

[ClarCari]

11PM has it stationary at 18.9°N 83.1°W.
Also has it holding on to Hurricane intensity a bit longer.

Also made it clear “more uncertain than usual” with regards to track...

True and their discussion pointed out that a center relocation may happen as we think it will.
Hopefully recon gets there at a perfect time to get a better sense of this thing!

[tiger_deF]

That is some serious convection 28 is firing to the south, pretty broad swath of dark purple with a good amount of lightning

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1320199062352703489

[LarryWx]

Here are the most recent Gulf and NW Caribbean SSTs. They have hardly cooled since H Delta's own induced cooling near its track largely because it has been warm dominated since and actually warmer than it was in late Sep and very early Oct over the N Gulf coast! So, if anything, the shelf waters have warmed back up a tad.
So, we're left with still a very warm W Car of 84-86, a solidly warm S Gulf of 82-84, and 79+ up to ~50 miles of the N coast:

[ClarCari]

So with recon now taking off, does anyone have an idea what their flight path might be?
Will they go to where the NHC has the center first and then fly south to that huge burst of convection or would they try heading there first instead?

[underthwx]

TD 28s forecast cone, is the 7th forecast cone to touch the Louisiana coastline this hurricane season, according to NWS New Orleans....an unwanted distinction to be sure...