Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[aspen]

I’m curious if we have say 29 or 30 TC’s and names overall assuming TD 10 gets a post-upgrade, would that still make 2020 the most active?

Most tropical cyclones: 31 (2005)
Most tropical storms: 28 (2005)
Most hurricanes: 15 (2005)
Most C2+ hurricanes: 10 (1950)
Most major hurricanes: 7 (2005)
Most C4+ hurricanes: 5 (2005, 1999)
Most C5 hurricanes: 4 (2005)

Still crazy to think that 2020 could be only two weeks away from tying 2005’s named storm record, if this system does develop. We’d need to get up to 30 NS to hit 2005’s TC total.

We might be looking at anywhere from 27/11/4 and 140 ACE to 28/12/6 and 155 ACE depending on how Zeta and “Future-Eta” turn out.

[LarryWx]

Maybe S FL will finally get a storm in Nov. It almost sounds like some of you are begging for one as I sense a lot of frustration in not getting one. Maybe those guys would finally be content.

Well one thing is sure that ridge will not be around.

How do we know a ridge won’t be around? The SE Ridge has been present all summer and now into the fall.

I always agree with this regarding the SER. It never seems to go away for long any more and all modeling seems to underpredict it. We'll need for the W Pac waters to cool a good bit to end the reign of this king, the SER.

[TheStormExpert]

Well one thing is sure that ridge will not be around.

How do we know a ridge won’t be around? The SE Ridge has been present all summer and now into the fall.

I always agree with this regarding the SER. It never seems to go away for long any more and all modeling seems to underpredict it. We'll need for the W Pac waters to cool a good bit to end the reign of this king, the SER.

What does West Pacific waters have to do with the SE U.S. Ridge?

I thought the PNA influenced the ridge?

[LarryWx]

How do we know a ridge won’t be around? The SE Ridge has been present all summer and now into the fall.

I always agree with this regarding the SER. It never seems to go away for long any more and all modeling seems to underpredict it. We'll need for the W Pac waters to cool a good bit to end the reign of this king, the SER.

What does West Pacific waters have to do with the SE U.S. Ridge?

I thought the PNA influenced the ridge?

Yes, indeed, the -PNA (aka RNA) typically includes a SER. But what causes a -PNA to dominate in the first place? One thing I'm sure you know is La Nina, especially one that's strong. But another is the anomalously warm W Pac even if there is, say, a weak El Nino (see last two winters). I learned this from a pro met. The very warm W Pac just will not go away. Some of that may be due to GW/CC. The warm W Pac causes the MJO to tend to be longer in the warm right side phases vs the cold left side phases. It sort of makes it like we're in a semi-permanent La Nina!

[Deshaunrob17]

I'm not one bit surprised the high activity is continuing into the end of October and November is likely to be busier than normal this year- whatever that means. Every season is unique and this season has a lot of unique characteristics. Though, I said before that this season is a replica of 2008/2005 season.
3 storms, 2 major hurricanes formed this month and we are likely to see 1 more storm- this is above average. I believe we're gonna end up with 30 named storms ( even if it takes for one to form in December)

[Spacecoast]

Ok, now I believe...
For whatever reason, climo seems to be not applicable anymore. Even 2005 didn't behave like this, (unless you include Gamma).
CMC is on board with genesis in 174hrs.

The day after Election day (240 hrs):

[ElectricStorm]

Development time on the GFS continues to move forward. Given the fact that other models are getting on board as well, this one may need to be watched much more seriously than I originally thought...

[Loveweather12]

Development time on the GFS continues to move forward. Given the fact that other models are getting on board as well, this one may need to be watched much more seriously than I originally thought...

So you mean the timeline is moving up. I guess this is getting
More support? Wasn’t expecting this for November but the season does end on the 30th

[ElectricStorm]

Development time on the GFS continues to move forward. Given the fact that other models are getting on board as well, this one may need to be watched much more seriously than I originally thought...

So you mean the timeline is moving up. I guess this is getting
More support? Wasn’t expecting this for November but the season does end on the 30th

I've also seen that a favorable MJO pulse is supposed to arrive in the Atlantic in early November, so that could help it out also.

[Loveweather12]

Development time on the GFS continues to move forward. Given the fact that other models are getting on board as well, this one may need to be watched much more seriously than I originally thought...

So you mean the timeline is moving up. I guess this is getting
More support? Wasn’t expecting this for November but the season does end on the 30th

I've also seen that a favorable MJO pulse is supposed to arrive in the Atlantic in early November, so that could help it out also.

Wow. I remember seeing that too. Thank you for answering my question I’m no expert but when I should start really watching this? I know ghosts happen.
I’m really curious to see how steering will be as well but I know that’s to far out

[ElectricStorm]

So you mean the timeline is moving up. I guess this is getting
More support? Wasn’t expecting this for November but the season does end on the 30th

I've also seen that a favorable MJO pulse is supposed to arrive in the Atlantic in early November, so that could help it out also.

Wow. I remember seeing that too. Thank you for answering my question I’m no expert but when I should start really watching this? I know ghosts happen.
I’m really curious to see how steering will be as well but I know that’s to far out

Yeah it's still pretty far out so I'm still not completely sold on anything forming at all. But given the trends in the models of showing this, and the upcoming MJO pulse, I'm taking this one a bit more seriously now. As we have seen with several storms this year, anything that gets into the Caribbean will be very dangerous with all that OHC down there.

[CrazyC83]

One possible analog I can think of might be the November 1932 hurricane. Only God knows how strong that storm was since a ship measured 915 mb in hurricane conditions outside the eye...and that was on November 6.

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GEFS:

[ElectricStorm]

Here's the track of the 1932 storm:


I know that some earlier GFS runs had a similar track to this but the 0z run takes it into CA. While unlikely, a storm of similar intensity could happen, assuming the upper-level environment would be perfect. We've already seen one storm this month explode down there, so if it finds perfect conditions it could explode. Obviously a Cat 5 is highly unlikely at this point, but a strong storm could very well be a possibility, if it indeed forms.

[SFLcane]

The 0Z GEFS:

https://i.imgur.com/vsPhB6C.png

[Loveweather12]

Is to early to know what steering might be around this time for the possible storm formation?

[LarryWx]

Is to early to know what steering might be around this time for the possible storm formation?

Absolutely too early. For one thing, the models have been terrible. The only guide you might try to give you some rough odds of different general possibilities are climo/old tracks of early Nov W Car geneses in case there actually ends up being one, but I don't think it will be too helpful because there were only 13/not too big a dataset (and how many of those 13 were during strong La Nina?):

[SFLcane]

[ClarCari]

:eek:

https://i.imgur.com/OrxFIS7.gif

Mi-ilma...
or or or Witch would be a much better name to describe that combo this things hinting at

[northjaxpro]

I am becoming a bit more intrigued by the models advancing the time frame for this potential. Now inside of 10 days.