#24 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:15 pm
TheStormExpert wrote:LarryWx wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:How do we know a ridge won’t be around? The SE Ridge has been present all summer and now into the fall.
I always agree with this regarding the SER. It never seems to go away for long any more and all modeling seems to underpredict it. We'll need for the W Pac waters to cool a good bit to end the reign of this king, the SER.
What does West Pacific waters have to do with the SE U.S. Ridge?
I thought the PNA influenced the ridge?
Yes, indeed, the -PNA (aka RNA) typically includes a SER. But what causes a -PNA to dominate in the first place? One thing I'm sure you know is La Nina, especially one that's strong. But another is the anomalously warm W Pac even if there is, say, a weak El Nino (see last two winters). I learned this from a pro met. The very warm W Pac just will not go away. Some of that may be due to GW/CC. The warm W Pac causes the MJO to tend to be longer in the warm right side phases vs the cold left side phases. It sort of makes it like we're in a semi-permanent La Nina!
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