ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Center appears to reforming south of the previous exposed LLC under the . That north circulation is no longer closed.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Lowest pressure 1002 close to 17.4.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
25-30 kt westerly winds between 17N and 17.5N along 83.7W. That doesn't suggest a center south of 17.5N.
PS: More obs in now. Looks like an elongated NNW-SSE circulation. Winds indicate center is north of 17.5N, though.
PS: More obs in now. Looks like an elongated NNW-SSE circulation. Winds indicate center is north of 17.5N, though.
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Interesting that the new Euro merges Zeta with the cold front (as a weak low) just offshore Galveston on Wednesday. UKMET merges it with the front south of the mid LA coast (weak low). If the center does reform farther south, then it may track over much of the Yucatan. Lots of uncertainty for the Gulf coast.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...
https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Recon has found no sign of center reformation right now, but Hurricane Sally had one such case.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not a very impressive system based on that pass.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...
https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
Please no Mitch 2.0
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
aspen wrote:Not a very impressive system based on that pass.
Recon has found 45 knots, may have been rain-enhanced.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...
https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
I am beginning to wonder...I am not familiar with Mitch, or the environmental patterns that led to the track of the system, therefore I am not qualified to draw any comparisons, to me each cyclone is unique, what has my attention is the movement, or rather, how it looks to me on satellite loops, it's movement, to what appears to be southward?....please correct me if I am observing this incorrectly....thankyou
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Partially exposed center of ~1003 mbar, 45 kt FL winds, 50 kt SFMR. Looks like a standard lopsided TS with some ways to go before it can rapidly intensify.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So is mid-level northerly shear causing this to keep reforming south or could it also be a lack of steering letting convection burst in any direction it wants?
Or both?
Or both?
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- FLpanhandle91
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is an elongation of the circulation sometimes a precursor of center reformation?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
underthwx wrote:cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...
https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
I am beginning to wonder...I am not familiar with Mitch, or the environmental patterns that led to the track of the system, therefore I am not qualified to draw any comparisons, to me each cyclone is unique, what has my attention is the movement, or rather, how it looks to me on satellite loops, it's movement, to what appears to be southward?....please correct me if I am observing this incorrectly....thankyou
Yup. It was a very strong storm. Thats the difference. 180mph. But it was forecast to move northward into the Yucatán channel very slowly and instead just drifted south. Just didn’t feel any steering to pull it north. Was an anomaly. That’s why I said a few days ago I don’t trust storms down in that area. They do weird things.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
FLpanhandle91 wrote:Is an elongation of the circulation sometimes a precursor of center reformation?
usually.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Best track up to 45 kts.
28L ZETA 201025 1800 18.0N 83.7W ATL 45 1002
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SE wall looking like it has strong winds as well
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
50 knots detected. Is it a max wind band or rain enhanced? You decide!


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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021

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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Iceresistance wrote:50 knots detected. Is it a max wind band or rain enhanced? You decide!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0328A-ZETA_zoom.png
But those are flight level winds?
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NHC still says 40 mph, likely because of the main circulation is becoming broad.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
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Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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