ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#561 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:42 pm

Center appears to reforming south of the previous exposed LLC under the . That north circulation is no longer closed.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#562 Postby blp » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:43 pm

Lowest pressure 1002 close to 17.4.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#563 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:45 pm

25-30 kt westerly winds between 17N and 17.5N along 83.7W. That doesn't suggest a center south of 17.5N.

PS: More obs in now. Looks like an elongated NNW-SSE circulation. Winds indicate center is north of 17.5N, though.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#564 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:51 pm

Interesting that the new Euro merges Zeta with the cold front (as a weak low) just offshore Galveston on Wednesday. UKMET merges it with the front south of the mid LA coast (weak low). If the center does reform farther south, then it may track over much of the Yucatan. Lots of uncertainty for the Gulf coast.
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cp79

Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#565 Postby cp79 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:52 pm

Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...

https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#566 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:53 pm

Recon has found no sign of center reformation right now, but Hurricane Sally had one such case.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#567 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:53 pm

Not a very impressive system based on that pass.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#568 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:54 pm

cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...

https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA

Please no Mitch 2.0
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#569 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:59 pm

aspen wrote:Not a very impressive system based on that pass.

Recon has found 45 knots, may have been rain-enhanced.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#570 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 25, 2020 1:59 pm

cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...

https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA


I am beginning to wonder...I am not familiar with Mitch, or the environmental patterns that led to the track of the system, therefore I am not qualified to draw any comparisons, to me each cyclone is unique, what has my attention is the movement, or rather, how it looks to me on satellite loops, it's movement, to what appears to be southward?....please correct me if I am observing this incorrectly....thankyou
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#571 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:04 pm

Partially exposed center of ~1003 mbar, 45 kt FL winds, 50 kt SFMR. Looks like a standard lopsided TS with some ways to go before it can rapidly intensify.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#572 Postby ClarCari » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:06 pm

So is mid-level northerly shear causing this to keep reforming south or could it also be a lack of steering letting convection burst in any direction it wants?
Or both?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#573 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:07 pm

Is an elongation of the circulation sometimes a precursor of center reformation?
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cp79

Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#574 Postby cp79 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:08 pm

underthwx wrote:
cp79 wrote:Wonder if we’ll see this again. When all models projected it to do this, it did this...

https://youtu.be/qkfKXdcg3aA


I am beginning to wonder...I am not familiar with Mitch, or the environmental patterns that led to the track of the system, therefore I am not qualified to draw any comparisons, to me each cyclone is unique, what has my attention is the movement, or rather, how it looks to me on satellite loops, it's movement, to what appears to be southward?....please correct me if I am observing this incorrectly....thankyou


Yup. It was a very strong storm. Thats the difference. 180mph. But it was forecast to move northward into the Yucatán channel very slowly and instead just drifted south. Just didn’t feel any steering to pull it north. Was an anomaly. That’s why I said a few days ago I don’t trust storms down in that area. They do weird things.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#575 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:10 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:Is an elongation of the circulation sometimes a precursor of center reformation?

usually.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#576 Postby cycloneye » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm

Best track up to 45 kts.

28L ZETA 201025 1800 18.0N 83.7W ATL 45 1002
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#577 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm

SE wall looking like it has strong winds as well
Last edited by skyline385 on Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#578 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:13 pm

50 knots detected. Is it a max wind band or rain enhanced? You decide!

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#579 Postby skyline385 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:15 pm

Iceresistance wrote:50 knots detected. Is it a max wind band or rain enhanced? You decide!

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-0328A-ZETA_zoom.png


But those are flight level winds?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#580 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 2:17 pm

NHC still says 40 mph, likely because of the main circulation is becoming broad.
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