ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.

[lrak]

so the center has reformed / is still reforming to the SE. how does this affect future trajectory? i would think it would lead to perhaps and earlier NE ejection? need someone smarter to explain

I agree with you and if it goes north as forecasted a not so nice dry lawnmower awaits. Hope the blades cut it up like Marco. Who knows Florida may get all the rain?

[underthwx]

Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.

Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

[aspen]

Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.

Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.

[ElectricStorm]

Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.

Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.

Which is easily enough time to explode

[Iceresistance]

Zeta is either going to go weeeeeeee! or REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!

[underthwx]

Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.

Which is easily enough time to explode

Yes Weather dude ...more than enough time unfortunately....I thought that Zeta would have already moved out of the Carribean by now...

[Do_For_Love]

Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[Steve H.]

Zeta finally looking like a bonifide storm. Could see some quick ramping up during the next 24 hours. Still not sure about where this is going. A lot of variables still to be considered, especially this time of year.

[ElectricStorm]

Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.

[Blinhart]

Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.

Not even going to guess about this for at least another 18 hours.

[Iceresistance]

Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.

Not even going to guess about this for at least another 18 hours.

Me nether, unless it's certain.

[Iceresistance]

Zeta now has a very high topped CDO, cloud tops of at least -95 C

[aspen]

Water vapor imagery shows some very good outflow around Zeta.


SSTs are also nice and toasty up until landfall, around 29.5-30C.


Zeta has a lot to work with once northerly shear dies down and it's able to stack.

[Nimbus]

Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...

Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

[tiger_deF]

While the center is doing what it's doing, the convection is more or less in the same place as it was 24 hours ago

[Iceresistance]

Water vapor imagery shows some very good outflow around Zeta.
https://i.imgur.com/BX7pHvh.png

SSTs are also nice and toasty up until landfall, around 29.5-30C.
https://i.imgur.com/M7evVDR.png

Zeta has a lot to work with once northerly shear dies down and it's able to stack.

And a core to work with, also note on how high the cloud tops are.

[Iceresistance]

Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...

Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

I thought the last C4 storm into Florida was Irma in 2017. . .

[us89]

Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

Speaking strictly from a mathematical standpoint, the rate of occurrence of a particular event in the recent past has no bearing on its future probability.

[ElectricStorm]

Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...

Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

I thought the last C4 storm into Florida was Irma in 2017. . .

He meant SE metro FL. Irma was on the west side