ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#661 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:09 pm

Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#662 Postby lrak » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:11 pm

Ian2401 wrote:so the center has reformed / is still reforming to the SE. how does this affect future trajectory? i would think it would lead to perhaps and earlier NE ejection? need someone smarter to explain


I agree with you and if it goes north as forecasted a not so nice dry lawnmower awaits. Hope the blades cut it up like Marco. Who knows Florida may get all the rain?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#663 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:16 pm

aspen wrote:Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.


Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#664 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:18 pm

underthwx wrote:
aspen wrote:Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.


Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#665 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:21 pm

aspen wrote:
underthwx wrote:
aspen wrote:Based on Levi’s video, it turns out this was a better-case scenario for Zeta’s intensification. The southward shifts have kept it away from the dry air patch in the Gulf, and while northerly shear is present, it’ll ablate once the shortwave trough over Florida moves away, and it wasn’t able to shove any dry air into the core. If it was further north, Zeta could’ve looked even worse than it does now and struggled with dry air alongside a tilted vortex.

Once that northerly shear lessens, we’ll have a stacking and slow-moving system on top of nuclear-grade OHC, within a nice UL environment as well. This doesn’t bode well for the people in Cancun who are probably sick to death of WCar systems this year.


Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.

Which is easily enough time to explode
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#666 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:23 pm

Zeta is either going to go weeeeeeee! or REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#667 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:24 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
aspen wrote:
underthwx wrote:
Does Levi discuss the length of time that Zeta will be quasi-stationary in the Carribean?

He’s agreeing with the timeframe of landfall being late tomorrow night/very early Tuesday morning. 24-30 hours over water is a safe bet.

Which is easily enough time to explode


Yes Weather dude ...more than enough time unfortunately....I thought that Zeta would have already moved out of the Carribean by now...
Last edited by underthwx on Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:58 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#668 Postby Do_For_Love » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:25 pm

Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#669 Postby Steve H. » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:26 pm

Zeta finally looking like a bonifide storm. Could see some quick ramping up during the next 24 hours. Still not sure about where this is going. A lot of variables still to be considered, especially this time of year.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#670 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:30 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

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*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#671 Postby Blinhart » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:34 pm

Weather Dude wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

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*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.


Not even going to guess about this for at least another 18 hours.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#672 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:36 pm

Blinhart wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:Will be interesting to see how strong Zeta can get by Tuesday morning. The NHC and intensity models don't have it getting much stronger than a 1, so that's probably what will happen...but at the same time, Delta went absolutely nuts in this area, depression to Cat 4 in 36 hours. We'll see!

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*NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST BY ANY MEANS*
My personal opinion, I'm not trying to wishcast at all here but based on the insane OHC, and the fact that the northerly shear should decrease soon, I'm going with a preliminary peak prediction of 115kts/945mb. Subject to change in coming days.


Not even going to guess about this for at least another 18 hours.

Me nether, unless it's certain.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#673 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 5:45 pm

Zeta now has a very high topped CDO, cloud tops of at least -95 C

Image
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#674 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:07 pm

Water vapor imagery shows some very good outflow around Zeta.
Image

SSTs are also nice and toasty up until landfall, around 29.5-30C.
Image

Zeta has a lot to work with once northerly shear dies down and it's able to stack.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#675 Postby Nimbus » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:10 pm

wxman57 wrote:Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...


Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#676 Postby tiger_deF » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:11 pm

While the center is doing what it's doing, the convection is more or less in the same place as it was 24 hours ago
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#677 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:12 pm

aspen wrote:Water vapor imagery shows some very good outflow around Zeta.
https://i.imgur.com/BX7pHvh.png

SSTs are also nice and toasty up until landfall, around 29.5-30C.
https://i.imgur.com/M7evVDR.png

Zeta has a lot to work with once northerly shear dies down and it's able to stack.

And a core to work with, also note on how high the cloud tops are.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#678 Postby Iceresistance » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:14 pm

Nimbus wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...


Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

I thought the last C4 storm into Florida was Irma in 2017. . .
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#679 Postby us89 » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:15 pm

Nimbus wrote:Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..


Speaking strictly from a mathematical standpoint, the rate of occurrence of a particular event in the recent past has no bearing on its future probability.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#680 Postby ElectricStorm » Sun Oct 25, 2020 6:17 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Nimbus wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Can clearly see the center NW of the convection on high-res visible. Max FL wind the plane could find was about 50 kts. Some evidence of a small area of 45kt winds SE of the center. Otherwise, winds generally below TS strength. Struggling with northerly wind shear, though the shear should be decreasing tonight/tomorrow. Hope the long-range GFS is wrong...


Beyond 300 hours we are basically talking about climatological probabilities.
Last Cat 4 storm to devastate southeast Florida was 18 years ago.
Seasonal outlook for 2021 can't take into account the 19 year lull with their probability calculation..

I thought the last C4 storm into Florida was Irma in 2017. . .

He meant SE metro FL. Irma was on the west side
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