ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[skyline385]

Am i reading that VDC wrong or is it almost a day old?

[ColdMiser123]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1321238630296408067

The 12z HWRF didn't have any pressure falls taking place until 6z (2 am EDT), too early to discount a significant pressure drop before landfall like it is showing.

[NDG]

Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.

found this on the NHC site for the recon missions not sure how old it is
877
URNT12 KWBC 270101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 27/00:00:45Z
B. 19.90 deg N 086.61 deg W
C. 700 MB 2981 m
D. 983 mb
E. 185 deg 32 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 43 kt
I. 239 deg 34 nm 23:52:34Z
J. 335 deg 31 kt
K. 239 deg 43 nm 23:50:31Z
L. 66 kt
M. 058 deg 23 nm 00:06:20Z
N. 147 deg 64 kt
O. 059 deg 39 nm 00:10:17Z
P. 13 C / 3060 m
Q. 16 C / 3059 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0928A ZETA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 059 / 39 NM 00:10:17Z

This is from yesterday.

[Syx6sic]

Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.

This is from yesterday.

ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol

[ColdMiser123]

This is from yesterday.

ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol

The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.

[Syx6sic]

ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol

The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.

ahh thanks for the help with that now i understand so with it being after 8pm now it would list it as 28/00:00:45Z if it was new right?

[aspen]

Once that eyewall closes off on IR, we’ll have a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Gulf....AGAIN.

I knew pre-season signals were suggesting above-average activity in the Gulf, but this has been ridiculous, to the point where climatology has been tossed right out the window twice. TS Cristobal, C1 Hanna, C4 Laura, C1 Marco, C2 Sally, TS Beta, TS Gamma, C3 Delta, and now eventually C1 Zeta.

[ColdMiser123]

ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol

The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.

ahh thanks for the help with that now i understand so with it being after 8pm now it would list it as 28/00:00:45Z if it was new right?

Yeah, that's right. 28 shows the day of the month in Z time, and the time in Z time following it, which is currently 4 hours ahead of EDT.

[Stormgodess]

Our Local Met. is emphasizing that with Zeta moving possibly 25mph at landfall the time over land to weaken it will be so short....so areas much further inland will be impacted by winds

Also, mentioned he would be surprised at a slight jog to west for the the track by 10pm, having the eye having a direct impact on New Oleans

[NDG]

Hot off the press, from just a few minutes ago.

[cheezyWXguy]

I see zeta has bounced back. Looks like it didn’t lose much if any of its core over land. Looks like it’s building an eye wall from the surface up on IR

[ClarCari]

I believe next flight departs around 1:45-2AM CDT. So the next flight should arrive to a stronger Zeta if our eyes do not deceive us. Also it’s a NOAA flight so fingers crossed!

[hipshot]

Hot off the press, from just a few minutes ago.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ssmis/91rgb/20201028.0031.f17.91pct91h91v.28L.ZETA.55kts.984mb.22.2N.90W.090pc.jpg

I couldn't view the image in your post, can you repost in another format?

[Stormgodess]

I also wanted to point out... The future models Wed. evening, when Zeta outer bands really starts pushing into that Winter storm trough. The weather up North Louisiana, North Miss. and Arkansas, looks really really nasty. Im not sure if that is just the winter storm itself or if its due to its interaction with Zeta.... But it blows up

[GCANE]

Another PVS is coming up from Honduras

[sgastorm]

Is it me, or have there been more comms issues with the hurricane hunters this year? I don't remember this many problems in prior years.

[NDG]

During this season every time a storm has reformed further south it has resulted in the storm going further west than previously forecasted. South central LA to Mobile are in highest probability of Zeta making landfall, IMO. It will be moving NNE to NE as it gets pulled by the trough so affected areas will be wide to the east.

From my post Sunday morning, it did again repeat itself what has happened all season long in the Caribbean every time a system reformed further south in the beginning of its genesis of a track further west than forecasted in its beginning.

[hurricanehunter69]

You never know for sure with these things. But it's looking real good to me. Once the warm core engine gets fully cranked up with this puppy....I'd bet she starts spinning very fast! Hard to rule out a cat two here. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[Keldeo1997]

Not what you want to see. Eyewall in the low levels seems to be closed and perfectly symmetrical

[tolakram]

Not sure if this was posted earlier or not.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/X4tb_kqxYUk[/youtube]