ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Am i reading that VDC wrong or is it almost a day old?
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
weeniepatrol wrote:https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1321238630296408067
The 12z HWRF didn't have any pressure falls taking place until 6z (2 am EDT), too early to discount a significant pressure drop before landfall like it is showing.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Tue Oct 27, 2020 7:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Syx6sic wrote:aspen wrote:Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.
found this on the NHC site for the recon missions not sure how old it is
877
URNT12 KWBC 270101
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL282020
A. 27/00:00:45Z
B. 19.90 deg N 086.61 deg W
C. 700 MB 2981 m
D. 983 mb
E. 185 deg 32 kt
F. OPEN NW
G. C24
H. 43 kt
I. 239 deg 34 nm 23:52:34Z
J. 335 deg 31 kt
K. 239 deg 43 nm 23:50:31Z
L. 66 kt
M. 058 deg 23 nm 00:06:20Z
N. 147 deg 64 kt
O. 059 deg 39 nm 00:10:17Z
P. 13 C / 3060 m
Q. 16 C / 3059 m
R. 9 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.01 / 1 nm
U. NOAA2 0928A ZETA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 64 KT 059 / 39 NM 00:10:17Z
This is from yesterday.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Syx6sic wrote:aspen wrote:Best guess is that the 990 mbar is from recon data, and the pressure was much higher after landfall than operationally assessed.
This is from yesterday.
ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Syx6sic wrote:NDG wrote:Syx6sic wrote:
This is from yesterday.
ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol
The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
ColdMiser123 wrote:Syx6sic wrote:NDG wrote:
ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol
The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.
ahh thanks for the help with that now i understand so with it being after 8pm now it would list it as 28/00:00:45Z if it was new right?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Once that eyewall closes off on IR, we’ll have a rapidly intensifying hurricane in the Gulf....AGAIN.
I knew pre-season signals were suggesting above-average activity in the Gulf, but this has been ridiculous, to the point where climatology has been tossed right out the window twice. TS Cristobal, C1 Hanna, C4 Laura, C1 Marco, C2 Sally, TS Beta, TS Gamma, C3 Delta, and now eventually C1 Zeta.
I knew pre-season signals were suggesting above-average activity in the Gulf, but this has been ridiculous, to the point where climatology has been tossed right out the window twice. TS Cristobal, C1 Hanna, C4 Laura, C1 Marco, C2 Sally, TS Beta, TS Gamma, C3 Delta, and now eventually C1 Zeta.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Syx6sic wrote:ColdMiser123 wrote:Syx6sic wrote:
ok wasnt sure can never figure out the time they use lol
The first line where it says A. 27/00:00:45Z tells you that it was issued on the 26th, at about 8 pm EDT, since Z time is 4 hours ahead EDT. When we roll the clocks back an hour this coming weekend, it will be 5 hours ahead.
ahh thanks for the help with that now i understand so with it being after 8pm now it would list it as 28/00:00:45Z if it was new right?
Yeah, that's right. 28 shows the day of the month in Z time, and the time in Z time following it, which is currently 4 hours ahead of EDT.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Our Local Met. is emphasizing that with Zeta moving possibly 25mph at landfall the time over land to weaken it will be so short....so areas much further inland will be impacted by winds
Also, mentioned he would be surprised at a slight jog to west for the the track by 10pm, having the eye having a direct impact on New Oleans
Also, mentioned he would be surprised at a slight jog to west for the the track by 10pm, having the eye having a direct impact on New Oleans
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hot off the press, from just a few minutes ago.


Last edited by NDG on Tue Oct 27, 2020 8:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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- cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I see zeta has bounced back. Looks like it didn’t lose much if any of its core over land. Looks like it’s building an eye wall from the surface up on IR
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I believe next flight departs around 1:45-2AM CDT. So the next flight should arrive to a stronger Zeta if our eyes do not deceive us. Also it’s a NOAA flight so fingers crossed! 

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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Hot off the press, from just a few minutes ago.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc20/ATL/28L.ZETA/ssmis/91rgb/20201028.0031.f17.91pct91h91v.28L.ZETA.55kts.984mb.22.2N.90W.090pc.jpg
I couldn't view the image in your post, can you repost in another format?
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- Stormgodess
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I also wanted to point out... The future models Wed. evening, when Zeta outer bands really starts pushing into that Winter storm trough. The weather up North Louisiana, North Miss. and Arkansas, looks really really nasty. Im not sure if that is just the winter storm itself or if its due to its interaction with Zeta.... But it blows up
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Is it me, or have there been more comms issues with the hurricane hunters this year? I don't remember this many problems in prior years.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:During this season every time a storm has reformed further south it has resulted in the storm going further west than previously forecasted. South central LA to Mobile are in highest probability of Zeta making landfall, IMO. It will be moving NNE to NE as it gets pulled by the trough so affected areas will be wide to the east.
From my post Sunday morning, it did again repeat itself what has happened all season long in the Caribbean every time a system reformed further south in the beginning of its genesis of a track further west than forecasted in its beginning.
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
You never know for sure with these things. But it's looking real good to me. Once the warm core engine gets fully cranked up with this puppy....I'd bet she starts spinning very fast! Hard to rule out a cat two here. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion

Not what you want to see. Eyewall in the low levels seems to be closed and perfectly symmetrical
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Re: ATL: ZETA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not sure if this was posted earlier or not.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/X4tb_kqxYUk[/youtube]
[youtube]https://youtu.be/X4tb_kqxYUk[/youtube]
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