Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[Jr0d]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/QCH1G50b/516-AB781-D431-4-E00-BCC4-1-D85-ABD3-C681.jpg

Often it seems like if the models are showing something on top of Florida in fantasy land timeframes(7 days plus) early on, I feel safer because they will change.

We already have 1 poster declaring this a CA storm and several other giving the all clear to Florida.

Until a low forms and we have a trackable entity, I look at individual model runs for entertainment value, and keep a close eye on the ensemble trends.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1321788648744980480

[chaser1]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/QCH1G50b/516-AB781-D431-4-E00-BCC4-1-D85-ABD3-C681.jpg

Often it seems like if the models are showing something on top of Florida in fantasy land timeframes(7 days plus) early on, I feel safer because they will change.

We already have 1 poster declaring this a CA storm and several other giving the all clear to Florida.

Until a low forms and we have a trackable entity, I look at individual model runs for entertainment value, and keep a close eye on the ensemble trends.

Add me to the Eta west to CA list LOL.... at least in regards to near term track. If it can somehow dawdle around post 2nd cold front poised to clear all South Florida next week, then I suppose "it" or something of it's spawn might just find a way to percolate northward toward Cuba way late in the cycle. Just very hard for me to see any timing for a Caribbean storm to find a way to develop that quickly, move NW that fast and possibly impact Cuba/Florida in such a narrow window between this Sunday and Monday when the stronger of two short waves are due to swing south into Florida. That's no "all clear" for Florida in my opinion. There may be plenty of November left to squeak out a northward moving T.S. into the state.

[SFLcane]

[Emmett_Brown]

I think the NHC wording of "meandering" over the W Caribbean makes a lot of sense here. Whatever forms certainly could immediately move into CA, but with the ensemble spread, a very slow moving quasi stationary system is possible, since high pressure ridging will practically surround it to the north, west and east. Could meander down there for days. If so, I hope it stays off shore of CA.

As for climatology, daily weather doesn't follow climatology, it makes climatology.

[cp79]

Prayers for those in CA. Looks like it’s headed on a beeline right for it.

What’s headed on a beeline? You do realize that cone you see is not an actual track cone it’s the area for potential development.

Pretty much every model has it heading there.

[TheStormExpert]

Anything the models or ensembles show after 5-7 days is pure fantasy these days. All we know is a tropical system will be heading into the SW Caribbean over the next few days and from there looks likely to go into Nicaragua around 5-6 days from now. From there it either gets A) pulled north, or B) pushed inland and maybe into the East Pacific a lot like Otto in 2016 although surviving the crossover is not too likely.

[aspen]

There’s a chance Eta could become the Caribbean Cruiser major we all expected this year...in NOVEMBER of all months. It depends on how quickly the wave develops.

[SFLcane]

I would not bet on anything going into CA.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1321803191185526785

[gatorcane]

This is an impressive and large wave to say the least

Already shows an 850mb vort signature:

[northjaxpro]

I would not bet on anything going into CA.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1321803191185526785?s=21

Ventrice is right on target about this. Hurricane season may last into December in this insane 2020 season!

[Ryxn]

Eta could be a crossover and possibly spawn Theta not too long after...

[gatorcane]

Para into Central America with a lot of dry air over the Gulf and Florida with strong High pressure as is typical for early November:

[SFLcane]

[GeneratorPower]

Para into Central America with a lot of dry air over the Gulf and Florida with strong High pressure as is typical for early November:

https://i.postimg.cc/t4pcgN70/gfsp-mid-RH-watl-fh0-168.gif

La Niña will have a significant effect on how this plays out. This isn’t a normal November.

[Shell Mound]

https://i.imgur.com/JrP3YZS.gif

Interestingly, the minority of members that do not show significant interaction with Central America indicate steady intensification as the potential system tracks north-northeastward toward westernmost Cuba, the Keys, and possibly South Florida. Perhaps early November will behave more like early to mid October in regard to the track of this system, just as the peak of this season has clearly been delayed or “backloaded.” If this system somehow stalls offshore and does not do a “Mitch 2.0,” then I am concerned that this could be yet another powerful hurricane over the western Caribbean, à la the 1924/‘32 Cuba hurricanes, Michelle ‘01, and/or Paloma ‘08, at least in terms of potential intensity. Probably the most disconcerting possible outcome would be a drifting, stalling, or even looping motion over the western Caribbean, in the vicinity of the Gulf of Honduras, remaining just offshore/north of Central America, while undergoing significant intensification and eventually tracking NNE toward Pinar del Río, Cuba, and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, on a track that would clearly and unambiguously threaten the southernmost Florida peninsula and the Keys. Maybe a combination of ‘24’s track and ‘32’s intensity, with a bit of 1846 Havana/Key West thrown in for good measure. Maybe 2020 will save the worst for last and throw a robust Cat-5, Michael-style but offset to the southeast, into the I-4 corridor, from Tampa Bay to Greater Orlando and Cape Canaveral.

[TheStormExpert]

Para into Central America with a lot of dry air over the Gulf and Florida with strong High pressure as is typical for early November:

https://i.postimg.cc/t4pcgN70/gfsp-mid-RH-watl-fh0-168.gif

For once the para-GFS isn’t showing a crazy solution.

[SFLcane]

[Shell Mound]

Para into Central America with a lot of dry air over the Gulf and Florida with strong High pressure as is typical for early November:

https://i.postimg.cc/t4pcgN70/gfsp-mid-RH-watl-fh0-168.gif

For once the para-GFS isn’t showing a crazy solution.

Watch the models trend toward a FL-centric solution, given that most members are showing both a) TCG and b) CA impacts in the medium term. This is not the usual situation in which models are showing landfall(s) on FL in the very distant future. Consensus shows TCG and landfall in the medium term, not further out. The track may well be in line with that of early to mid October (meaning threats to peninsular FL) instead of early November (CA and/or Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas...), given that this season has been delayed or “backloaded.” Note that both the EPS/G(E)FS, including the parallel GFS suite(s), indicate the potential for a rapidly intensifying system at the time of closest approach to CA. If the system were instead moving slowly offshore at that time, then the potential for a significantly stronger system would be exponentially higher. Only a very small margin of error would result in yet another late-season major hurricane, possibly a Cat-5 system. The members that do take this system northward toward western Cuba all show significant deepening.

[tomatkins]

https://i.imgur.com/JrP3YZS.gif

It would be quite 2020 for a Greek letter storm from the Atlantic to cross Central America in November and remain intact enough to keep its name into the Pacific.