Area of disturbed weather entering the Caribbean (Is Invest 96L)

[AutoPenalti]

Slight north shifts would change a lot in the medium term.

[Ryxn]

This could actually end up being a Pacific storm by this time next week.

Making it "technically" the first Pacific Greek named storm thanks to the Atlantic's activity...Marie, Norbert, Odalys...Eta? Lol

[SFLcane]

Ding ding!

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321852065518440449

[aspen]

12z CMC: forming TD in 48 hours, landfall around three Honduras-Nicaragua border in 126 hours as a hurricane.

[northjaxpro]

La Niña will have a significant effect on how this plays out. This isn’t a normal November.

My goodness, you ain't kidding. La Nina is already flexing her muscle. We are having the warmest October on record here.

I like to look at patterns as a guide to what will happen. It's basically persistence forecasting. Why did we have four named storms hit Louisiana/North Gulf Coast this year? Pattern locked in. Why did 4 hurricanes in 45 days strike FL in 2004? Pattern locked in. It *can* change but when you see stuff over and over, you kinda get the feeling it *won't* change. Why does everyone say "Florida Forcefield". Well, when a pattern is locked in you just can't overcome that pattern and it lasts for MONTHS.

I used to live in the Tennessee Valley and sometime in 2007-ish we had an unbelievable heat ridge that spiked temps to 104F+ every single day for weeks. It was horrible. The pattern would. not. break. down. Until it did.

The question is, does the pattern of Northern Gulf Coast hits continue, or is pattern broken?

I certainly agree with you about persistent patterns. Heck, we have had the +NAO pattern locked in over Florida during the winter months for the past 10 years and counting, one of the most fascinating and longest sustaining weather anomalies I have ever witnessed in my years in this business. I am still doing research about it. So, yeah, I know about persistent patterns around here.

[gatorcane]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

[NDG]

I think that mid level ridging will not build that fast north of future 96L and could not go across C.A. thus meander around the central Caribbean longer.
IMO.

[toad strangler]

Camping in C FL through Sunday. Glorious wx at hand. Not trusting a CA buried outcome with this next system. Regardless of multiple models showing this.

[SFLcane]

Camping in C FL through Sunday. Glorious wx at hand. Not trusting a CA buried outcome with this next system. Regardless of multiple models showing this.

+1

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1321856378806378496

[aspen]

96L/Eta is likely the last chance 2020 will have to produce a Cat 5. The possibility of ECar genesis and several days tracking across the high SSTs and OHC of the Caribbean is concerning, even excluding a likely CA landfall and high flooding potential.

[Ryxn]

...

[Ryxn]

96L/Eta is likely the last chance 2020 will have to produce a Cat 5. The possibility of ECar genesis and several days tracking across the high SSTs and OHC of the Caribbean is concerning, even excluding a likely CA landfall and high flooding potential.

It would also be a historic Category 5 if it does attain that status. First November CAT 5 in the satellite era only second in history after the 1932 hurricane 88 years ago. Lenny of 1999 came SO close to Category 5 in mid November which would have made it the latest CAT 5 but it ultimately was 5 MPH short

[supercane4867]

Looking at recent model runs, it seems that Mitch 98 and Beta 05 are potential analogs for upcoming Eta.

[Loveweather12]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

Just because the model is saying it’s going to CA doesn’t mean it will. Things change. We still need to watch & plus, do we have a low to track yet???

[ElectricStorm]

Looking at recent model runs, it seems that Mitch 98 and Beta 05 are potential analogs for upcoming Eta.

Well it's certainly not a good situation when it's compared to those storms, especially Mitch

[Jr0d]

Despite the potential storm being well south of the Florida Keys, that is one strong high pressure/pressure gradient forecast to form next week. We have 30knot winds forecast for the middle of next week.

[CourierPR]

All of the deterministic models are in surprisingly good agreement on the track and take this into Honduras and/or Nicaragua.

Just because we had Zeta defy climatology means this one will too.

Just because the model is saying it’s going to CA doesn’t mean it will. Things change. We still need to watch & plus, do we have a low to track yet???

If tonight's model runs say the system will go to Labrador, these folks would be jumping on the bandwagon.

[SFLcane]

Once again the GEFS ensembles are away from CA.

[EquusStorm]

Could be a potentially catastrophic flooding event for Central America if the current projections come to pass, no really good outcomes here. Likely to tie 1969 for second most hurricanes in a season though regardless.