ATL: ETA - Models

[kevin]

12z GFS US landfall:

[Spacecoast]

[Shell Mound]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such sustained run-to-run consistency by the operational GFS in terms of track and intensity over five cycles. This isn’t a fluke...

Pre-Zeta going NE through Cuba and The Bahamas?

I meant that the GFS has been remarkably consistent over the past four runs and has done so against the ECMWF, the latter of which is failing badly intensity-wise.

[northjaxpro]

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such sustained run-to-run consistency by the operational GFS in terms of track and intensity over five cycles. This isn’t a fluke...

100% agree. The GFS has definitely latched onto a solution in that if it materizes, will have HUGE implications


12ZGFS run has Eta making landfall as a major across Apalachee Bay near Steinhatchee in 252 hours.

[Weatherboy1]

The persistence of 4 GFS runs now is interesting... but now we have the Canadian joining the “party” too. That is actually more interesting to me because it signals that the GFS isn’t all alone on an island by itself. Now to see if Euro shifts ...

[LarryWx]

12Z UK moves WSW in N Nic almost all the way into the E PAC before dissipating: so, what 12Z GFS, ICON, UK, and CMC all have in common regardless of what does or doesn’t happen to FL later is that a good portion of Hond, Nic, and possibly Guat/Belize is facing an increasing threat of extreme flooding: any readers there in flood prone areas or in mudslide threatened areas need to be VERY vigilant!! I’m getting deeply concerned.


NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.8N 81.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2020 60 13.8N 81.8W 1003 25
1200UTC 03.11.2020 72 14.2N 83.2W 1002 28
0000UTC 04.11.2020 84 13.8N 84.4W 1001 28
1200UTC 04.11.2020 96 13.2N 87.5W 1005 33
0000UTC 05.11.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, wouldn't ignore these GFS runs bringing this eventually Northward. It has done reasonably well in eventual western Carib. storm tracks this year where others buried them or even failed to develop them.

[kevin]

12z GFS goes all-out regarding US impact. Landfalls in Florida, then goes through the entire east coast: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and now Maryland & Delaware at 270 hours. And might I add that Zeta is still 970 mbar at 270 hours, a full day after landfall.

[Shell Mound]

The persistence of 4 GFS runs now is interesting... but now we have the Canadian joining the “party” too. That is actually more interesting to me because it signals that the GFS isn’t all alone on an island by itself. Now to see if Euro shifts ...

Technically, the CMC does take 96L/Eta well inland over the mountainous interior, but does so extremely slowly. At the time of landfall 96L/Eta is barely moving at all.

It wouldn’t take much at all for future runs to show 96L/Eta stalling over the Miskito Coast and moving back offshore instead of heading west toward the mountains.

[SFLcane]

[cp79]

12z GFS goes all-out regarding US impact. Landfalls in Florida, then goes through the entire east coast: Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia and now Maryland & Delaware at 270 hours. And might I add that Zeta is still 970 mbar at 270 hours, a full day after landfall.

I just don’t know if the steering is there for a Fla landfall to happen. I’m not saying it can’t happen, but if it were to get picked up, I would think it would move more NE, not N. Or WNw and then NW if HP got a hold of it. But maybe they see something I don’t so we’ll see. Like I said, too early in the game to take any model seriously past 96 hrs. The Euro will be interesting in an hour.

All this said, there is a growing and concerning trend for it clipping CA and staying alive and drifting N. Getting closer to 50/50 of that happening.

[Blown Away]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/gjJkXV7L/467079-B4-BEA7-46-D0-8329-FC168-A2-EEA3-D.jpg

That’s medium range to boot, Euro and most ensembles as confident the other way into CA. Large disagreement between GFS/Euro kinda unusual even for medium range.

[jlauderdal]

The 12z GFS is west and slower on approach to Florida when compared to the 06z run. Must be correcting it’s right-bias. Folks anywhere from Texas, Louisiana to Florida better be watching this!

Sofla deflector shield is going, i will be back to fll tonight

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z Canadian comes north similar to GFS..

[LarryWx]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/gjJkXV7L/467079-B4-BEA7-46-D0-8329-FC168-A2-EEA3-D.jpg

That’s medium range to boot, Euro and most ensembles as confident the other way into CA. Large disagreement between GFS/Euro kinda unusual even for medium range.

Not only that, but even the 12Z GFS/GEFS imply a sig threat to parts of Honduras for extreme flooding and mudslides. It isn’t a black and white choice just between CA flooding and a FL hit. They may both occur and, if so, the FL threat could be from energy that is near the LAs now.

This is a very heavily FL concentrated BB. So, I realize and fully understand that many posts are going to be about FL and nowhere else. So, I (who am not in FL) am trying my best to make sure for the benefit of readers especially in Honduras and Nicaragua but also for those in Guatemala, Belize, and even SE MX that the potential flooding threat to them not be overlooked and instead be prepared for as best possible in case the 12Z consensus is right.

[Shell Mound]

:eek:

https://i.postimg.cc/gjJkXV7L/467079-B4-BEA7-46-D0-8329-FC168-A2-EEA3-D.jpg

That’s medium range to boot, Euro and most ensembles as confident the other way into CA. Large disagreement between GFS/Euro kinda unusual even for medium range.

Not only that, but even the 12Z GFS/GEFS imply a sig threat to parts of Honduras for extreme flooding and mudslides. It isn’t a black and white choice just between CA flooding and a FL hit. They may both occur and, if so, the FL threat could be from energy that is near the LAs now.

I don’t disagree with you at all, but I think the threat to Florida is high from this system alone, and that severe impacts to both CA and FL may occur from 96L.

[Blown Away]

12z HWRF a full degree N shift at @84 hours and skimming Honduras N coast at that point.

[gatorcane]

HWRF landfall in Nicaragua heading inland. I wouldn’t get too “excited“ about the GFS into Florida unless more good models show it. Inland into CA looks likely.

[Blown Away]

HWRF landfall in Nicaragua heading inland. I wouldn’t get too excited about the GFS into Florida unless more good models show it. Inland into CA looks likely.

https://i.postimg.cc/3JpBF8Y7/hwrf-mslp-wind-96-L-fh60-87.gif

Agree, but the 12z was a full degree N and model has trended N a bit the last few runs.

[gatorcane]

Euro dives SW into Honduras/Nicaragua again. The model is very consistent with this.