ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

I have not checked since yesterday..

but I see we are still calling this an open wave.. lol

There is a LLC with a possible eye feature/dry slot.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like we are going to get some RI out of this over the next 36 hours...

[Kazmit]

I’ll try.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/CAR/13/GOES16-CAR-13-1000x1000.gif

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

https://i.imgur.com/h7UAkOn.jpg

It looks like a mid-range TS with that banding...

[Aric Dunn]

That's a dry slot... Not an eye

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

https://i.imgur.com/h7UAkOn.jpg

It looks like a mid-range TS with that banding...

This is almost certainly Eta.

[ElectricStorm]

I agree, is just a dry slot within the strong mid level circulation.
If it has a closed LLC is is still west of it.

https://i.imgur.com/h7UAkOn.jpg

It looks like a mid-range TS with that banding...

This is almost certainly Eta.

Yeah I'm kinda surprised they didn't upgrade

[NDG]

I do however think it has a well defined closed circulation, just to the west of the MLC.
The NHC must have taken a well deserved morning off to not upgrade it at 11 AM

[aspen]

At this rate, recon is gonna find a 55-60 kt TS when it arrives tomorrow.

[SouthDadeFish]

I can see pretty clear low-level inflow out of the SW and a curved band forming on the south side of the system. Looks like a TC to me...

[cycloneye]

For the members who are asking when recon will go, I just posted the TCPOD for Sunday and Monday. See the details at the 96L Recon thread

[Aric Dunn]

So no recon Until tonorrow.. interesting.

going to have a hurricane by then with an eye and ASCAT showing its not closed lol

[Shell Mound]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

http://wxman57.com/images/TVCN.JPG

Note that the TVCN indicates a significant slowdown just before landfall. 96L may well loop along the coast of Central America and not move far inland at all.

The current rate of intensification means that 96L (Eta) is less likely to move well inland before stalling, looping offshore, and eventually heading northward.

I’m already thinking this could well become a high-end Cat-4 or even low-end Cat-5 before hitting Cabo Gracias a Dios, stalling, and then entering the GoH.*

*Gulf of Honduras

(At any rate, this won’t weaken much, if at all, due to the brevity of its landfall on the relatively flat, marshy Miskito Coast, near the Nicaragua–Honduras line.)

Don’t be shocked if both Central America and Cuba/Florida face the possibility of multiple Cat-4+ landfalls in association with 96L (future Eta).

[SFLcane]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

http://wxman57.com/images/TVCN.JPG

Note that the TVCN indicates a significant slowdown just before landfall. 96L may well loop along the coast of Central America and not move far inland at all.

The current rate of intensification means that 96L (Eta) is less likely to move well inland before stalling, looping offshore, and eventually heading northward.

I’m already thinking this could well become a high-end Cat-4 or even low-end Cat-5 before hitting Cabo Gracias a Dios, stalling, and then entering the GoH.*

*Gulf of Honduras

(At any rate, this won’t weaken much, if at all, due to the brevity of its landfall on the relatively flat, marshy Miskito Coast, near the Nicaragua–Honduras line.)

Don’t be shocked if both Central America and Cuba/Florida face the possibility of multiple Cat-4+ landfalls in association with 96L (future Eta).

You might just be right.

[SFLcane]

Just a wave axis for now.

[Aric Dunn]

Just a wave axis for now.

https://i.postimg.cc/YSZ4wyDD/87-ADCC54-BF13-421-F-9303-C2-E86-A213893.jpg

Unlikely.

[Shell Mound]

Just a wave axis for now.

https://i.postimg.cc/YSZ4wyDD/87-ADCC54-BF13-421-F-9303-C2-E86-A213893.jpg

Unlikely.

Yes, the circulation is small and is likely being resolved improperly by certain grids. A closed low-level centre may well exist or is about to form shortly.

[Aric Dunn]

Should be upgraded to Eta. at the very least TD.

Clear as day.

[NDG]

Should be upgraded to Eta. at the very least TD.

Clear as day.

https://i.ibb.co/ZL6zZcC/LABELS-19700101-000000-53.gif

https://i.ibb.co/59xwJsk/Capture.png

I was about to post the same satellite loop, very clearly an LLC, the SW inflow is also seen.

[wxman57]

The requirements for a PTC advisory are that there is a high chance of development (check) AND that the potential storm is within 48 hrs of impacting a coastal region that the NHC warns for (nope). Looks like it will reach the coast of Nicaragua Tuesday evening. Therefore, about the earliest we could expect a PTC advisory would be tomorrow late afternoon. However, if you're curious what the NHC track would look like, it would look just like the consensus model (TVCN):

http://wxman57.com/images/TVCN.JPG

Note that the TVCN indicates a significant slowdown just before landfall. 96L may well loop along the coast of Central America and not move far inland at all.

The current rate of intensification means that 96L (Eta) is less likely to move well inland before stalling, looping offshore, and eventually heading northward.

I’m already thinking this could well become a high-end Cat-4 or even low-end Cat-5 before hitting Cabo Gracias a Dios, stalling, and then entering the GoH.*

*Gulf of Honduras

(At any rate, this won’t weaken much, if at all, due to the brevity of its landfall on the relatively flat, marshy Miskito Coast, near the Nicaragua–Honduras line.)

Don’t be shocked if both Central America and Cuba/Florida face the possibility of multiple Cat-4+ landfalls in association with 96L (future Eta).

Yes, I can plot the TVCN hour-by-hour, as indicated below. I think we (forecasters) all want it to just MOVE INLAND AND DIE! (sorry for shouting) We're all ready for a break. Haven't been able to take any vacation days this summer. Myself, I accrued nearly 40 comp DAYS this summer plus I have 20 vacation days left. We are not allowed to carry either over to 2021. So, die, Eta, die!

[cycloneye]

100%/100%

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Oct 31 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A vigorous tropical wave located over the central Caribbean Sea
continues to produce organized cloudiness and thunderstorms, and a
tropical depression appears to be forming. If this recent
development trend continues, then advisories will likely be
initiated on this disturbance this afternoon or evening while the
system moves generally westward at about 15 mph toward the western
Caribbean Sea. Interests in Jamaica, Honduras, and Nicaragua should
monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development,
this disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall across
portions of Jamaica and southern Hispaniola through the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Berg

[Wampadawg]

Has it slowed down?