ATL: ETA - Models

[supercane4867]

HWRF is making the Mitch analog looking increasingly plausible...

[aspen]

HWRF: 933 mbar NE of Honduras at 66 hours, EWRC beginning.

[NDG]

I spoke too soon also, lol.

[TallahasseeMan]

At 78hrs this thing is just about to come ashore. Very different from 6z at about the same time.






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[gatorcane]

The run already is “going nuts” with Eta’s intensity so far. Also, take a look at this! North turn starts over water by day two!

Looks like it does a full small loop and heading west again at 51 hours towards CA.

https://i.postimg.cc/zvxZcdzn/hwrf-mslp-wind-29-L-fh18-51.gif

You spoke too soon, general NW heading.

Still looks to move into Honduras, strong high over the Gulf to do this. The loop the HWRF does looks suspect.

[kevin]

12z HWRF still landfalls in CA, but way further north in Honduras and very strong due to the extra time it has over water.

[Spacecoast]

[LarryWx]

12z HWRF still landfalls in CA, but way further north in Honduras and very strong due to the extra time it has over water.

Worst case scenario for Honduras as they not only get extremely heavy rain but also a 941 H skirting the N coast. Fortunately, it is a model that often has super wonky runs that are out in left field that often don’t come close to verifying. Let’s hope.

[gatorcane]

Euro landfalls in Nicaragua in 48 hours at 995MB:

[aspen]

HWRF has a loop offshore of CA and a successful EWRC that leads to even more intensification as Eta heads north. Great news for CA (they don’t get Mitch 2.0), probably bad news for Cuba (might be a strong system at landfall).

I spoke too soon. HWRF track is very similar to Mitch.

[SFLcane]

12z GEFS is still very busy around South Florida.

[SFLcane]

Euro landfalls in Nicaragua in 48 hours at 995MB:

https://i.postimg.cc/3NkjpRc2/ecmwf-mslpa-Norm-watl-3.png

So did the 00z run.

[Shell Mound]

12z HWRF still landfalls in CA, but way further north in Honduras and very strong due to the extra time it has over water.

Personally, I’d rely on a blend of the HWRF for short-term intensity and the EPS for synoptics. The projected mid- to upper-air pattern on the EPS in the same timeframe as the HWRF’s projected Honduran impact suggests a strong system would turn northward by that time. The TCVN also suggests that a strong system would begin making a slow but solid northward turn by then. So if Eta were in roughly the same position and featuring roughly the same intensity as on the HWRF, it would only briefly move inland over Honduras before lifting back northward over the Caribbean, or even fail to make landfall on the Central American isthmus at all, but instead impact the Bay Islands and/or the Swan Islands before recoiling from the mainland. In fact, the 12Z HWRF shows only a brief strike on Honduras before northward drift ensues by hour eighty-four.

[TallahasseeMan]

Back offshore at 84hrs, what a split in the models we currently have.


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[gatorcane]

12Z Euro track through day 5. Looks a lot like the official track and that is deep into CA.

[TheStormExpert]

If Eta does redevelop in the Gulf of Honduras would it still be called Eta or Theta?

[TheStormExpert]

GFS ensembles look weaker to me. Also that is quite a turn to the west near Cuba. The Euro showed it. Wonder if It never makes it out of the Caribbean or ends up well west of Florida?

https://i.postimg.cc/8PfwCYG0/gfs-ememb-lowlocs-watl-fh96-204.gif

I’ve been thinking the same thing all along. Either this never leaves the Caribbean or affects the northern Gulf Coast as a weak entity. Climatology is against us here in Florida.

[gatorcane]

Euro emerging over the NW Carib and redeveloping.

[supercane4867]

12z HWRF is a flooding disaster of epic proportions for Central America.

[NDG]

HWRF ends up doing several loops with Eta. Keeps it offshore.