ATL: ETA - Models

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#661 Postby Nimbus » Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:57 am

aspen wrote:930 mbar on the Euro for an Atlantic storm :double:

You really don’t see that a whole lot anymore...


Might make landfall in a relatively low population area but the flooding inland is always a disaster with these strong Central American storms. Maybe with a pinhole sized eye the size of the storm would stay smaller but the official forecast last night mentioned a large gyre over much of the area as this spreads out inland after landfall.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#662 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:05 am

I can see birds inside the eye. :ggreen: :eek:

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#663 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:13 am

Hwrf is stronger post CA @ 96hrs.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#664 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:16 am

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#665 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:20 am

TheStormExpert wrote:I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.


It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#666 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:23 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#667 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:23 am

HWRF has an organized TS off the Honduras coast by 114hr. Looks like something that could strengthen very quickly over the deep warm waters of NW Caribbean

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#668 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:25 am

SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.


It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.


A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#669 Postby SootyTern » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:25 am

[quote="SFLcane"]I can see birds inside the eye. :ggreen: :eek:

that would bring Sooty terns over my house for sure
Last edited by SootyTern on Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#670 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:26 am

SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.


It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

Still it’s long range and will likely change.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#671 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:27 am

toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.


It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.


A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.


Hey Toad!

Sure thing I get it but unfortunately the support is there.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#672 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:30 am

TheStormExpert wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.


It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

Still it’s long range and will likely change.


Yea let’s Just disregard the euro and gfs ensembles as outliers. :roll: This below is mounting evidence

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#673 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:32 am

Hwrf with a rapid deepening system post CA.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#674 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:33 am

06z Euro has Eta slowing down and doing a couple of loop holes at landfall before eventually moving more Inland towards Honduras.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#675 Postby toad strangler » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:36 am

SFLcane wrote:
toad strangler wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.


A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.


Hey Toad!

Sure thing I get it but unfortunately the support is there.


I was camping for 5 days and come back to this LOL
Seeing the ensemble support from bot the GEFS and the EPS is eye opening for sure. :eek:
So far out though and such a weird set-up. Will be interesting. Gun to head I'd still bet on a climo scoot out to the S & E fo FL in the end.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#676 Postby NDG » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:36 am

Past 5 days is anybody's guess, nothing is written on stone past that range.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#677 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:48 am

If HWRF still has a core and intensifies this past CA, then I’ll be concerned.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#678 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:50 am

Remember when these ensembles were going to the epac just a few days ago?

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#679 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:08 am

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Re: ATL: ETA - Models

#680 Postby SFLcane » Mon Nov 02, 2020 8:14 am

Here is the 06z euro ensembles. Concentration in NW Caribbean just about 100hrs out

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