ATL: ETA - Models

[Nimbus]

930 mbar on the Euro for an Atlantic storm

You really don’t see that a whole lot anymore...

Might make landfall in a relatively low population area but the flooding inland is always a disaster with these strong Central American storms. Maybe with a pinhole sized eye the size of the storm would stay smaller but the official forecast last night mentioned a large gyre over much of the area as this spreads out inland after landfall.

[SFLcane]

I can see birds inside the eye.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf is stronger post CA @ 96hrs.

[TheStormExpert]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

[SFLcane]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1323237462324482048

[supercane4867]

HWRF has an organized TS off the Honduras coast by 114hr. Looks like something that could strengthen very quickly over the deep warm waters of NW Caribbean

[toad strangler]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

[SootyTern]

[quote="SFLcane"]I can see birds inside the eye.

that would bring Sooty terns over my house for sure

[TheStormExpert]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

Still it’s long range and will likely change.

[SFLcane]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

Hey Toad!

Sure thing I get it but unfortunately the support is there.

[SFLcane]

I guess it’s becoming more that there will be a hurricane in the NW Caribbean once Eta re-emerges in the Gulf of Honduras later this week. From there I could see this meandering around the NW Caribbean for a bit. The 06z GFS has a major hitting South Florida beyond 300hrs., been there too many times before to know better.

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

Still it’s long range and will likely change.

Yea let’s Just disregard the euro and gfs ensembles as outliers. This below is mounting evidence

[SFLcane]

Hwrf with a rapid deepening system post CA.

[NDG]

06z Euro has Eta slowing down and doing a couple of loop holes at landfall before eventually moving more Inland towards Honduras.

[toad strangler]

It’s not just op models there is ensemble support
from the EPS and GEFS.

A mid November strong 'cane into the FL peninsula. That would be one for the books. The ONLY one for the books.

Hey Toad!

Sure thing I get it but unfortunately the support is there.

I was camping for 5 days and come back to this LOL
Seeing the ensemble support from bot the GEFS and the EPS is eye opening for sure.
So far out though and such a weird set-up. Will be interesting. Gun to head I'd still bet on a climo scoot out to the S & E fo FL in the end.

[NDG]

Past 5 days is anybody's guess, nothing is written on stone past that range.

[AutoPenalti]

If HWRF still has a core and intensifies this past CA, then I’ll be concerned.

[SFLcane]

Remember when these ensembles were going to the epac just a few days ago?

[SFLcane]

[SFLcane]

Here is the 06z euro ensembles. Concentration in NW Caribbean just about 100hrs out