ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:32 am

My guess is they go with 90 or 95 kt for this upcoming advisory, with a peak intensity of 110 kt.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
kevin
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2586
Age: 26
Joined: Wed Aug 28, 2019 4:35 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Chemmers wrote:Think it will peak at sub 920 and 150 knots

That's bold. Unfortunately it could very well be a possibility if it gets that eye cleared. I'm going to more conservative and say it peaks at 130kts/935mb

I'd say 150 mph & 940s


I'm going with 140kts/160mph & 930/935mb just before landfall.
Last edited by kevin on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am

What do you think on what happens to Eta if Eta misses landfall over Central America?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:35 am

My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
Navyseal81

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby Navyseal81 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:35 am

Nuno wrote:Eta looks to be moving just south of due west now as it slows down.


I am wondering if it’s gonna parallel the coast and drift SSW where the coast bends in, keeping it over water a little longer before it goes inland.
0 likes   
Top
Ian2401
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 307
Joined: Thu Sep 14, 2017 5:55 pm
Location: Tallahassee, Florida
Contact:
Contact Ian2401

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:36 am

aspen wrote:My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt

895??? gonna say no
4 likes   
B.S. Meteorology from Florida State '24 // Current M.S. Meteorology student at Florida State

Research Interests: Rapid Intensification, TC Climatology, TC Modeling

Consult the NHC for official information
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

aspen wrote:My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt

The Aggressive part is basically when Eta going on REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
SouthDadeFish
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2835
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2010 2:54 pm
Location: Miami, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthDadeFish

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

This afternoon's NOAA P3 flight is going to be a doozy... Some extreme RI going on right now, with the aid of a very compact inner core. Eye temps are rapidly warming. Raw Dvorak estimates are about to skyrocket with a CDO like this. This is just an all around devastating situation for Central America right now. Regardless of the RI, torrential rainfall will impact the region for days, with deadly mudslides looking increasingly likely. Heartbreaking.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
us89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 399
Joined: Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:12 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:39 am

The eventual southward turn has been suggested by several models now. What's interesting is that the GFS doesn't start that turn until late this afternoon, while the 06z HWRF doesn't have it until this evening. If this is the start of a trend and not just a wobble, could signal an earlier stall.
Last edited by us89 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5044
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:39 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Top
Chemmers
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:16 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby Chemmers » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:40 am

Unfortunately it is looking so good on ir right now
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:41 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

Might be already at 105 or 110 mph because of the strengthening eye.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:41 am

The way that eye is clearing out, the earlier comments about Eta pulling a Delta and shooting past cat3 are probably correct
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nancy Smar
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1081
Age: 24
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 10:03 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:42 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

No, It is a 90kt and 970mbar Cat 2 now.
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tiger_deF
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Sep 27, 2016 11:47 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am

Eye is torching, going from black to yellow on IR in the span of half an hour. I'd expect it to fully clear out in the next hour
6 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am

Eye Temp. on Windy.com is at -65C on the latest frames.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:44 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

No, It is a 90kt and 970mbar Cat 2 now.

I knew it was around 105 ot 110 mph by now.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
Ubuntwo
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1406
Age: 31
Joined: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:41 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:44 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:The way that eye is clearing out, the earlier comments about Eta pulling a Delta and shooting past cat3 are probably correct

With one key difference: Eta has already done what Delta never could.
Image
6 likes   
Kendall -> SLO -> PBC

Memorable Storms: Katrina (for its Florida landfall...) Wilma Matthew Irma
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests