ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#761 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:32 am

My guess is they go with 90 or 95 kt for this upcoming advisory, with a peak intensity of 110 kt.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#762 Postby kevin » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Chemmers wrote:Think it will peak at sub 920 and 150 knots

That's bold. Unfortunately it could very well be a possibility if it gets that eye cleared. I'm going to more conservative and say it peaks at 130kts/935mb

I'd say 150 mph & 940s


I'm going with 140kts/160mph & 930/935mb just before landfall.
Last edited by kevin on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#763 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:33 am

What do you think on what happens to Eta if Eta misses landfall over Central America?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#764 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:35 am

My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#765 Postby Navyseal81 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:35 am

Nuno wrote:Eta looks to be moving just south of due west now as it slows down.


I am wondering if it’s gonna parallel the coast and drift SSW where the coast bends in, keeping it over water a little longer before it goes inland.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#766 Postby Ian2401 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:36 am

aspen wrote:My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt

895??? gonna say no
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#767 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#768 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

aspen wrote:My conservative peak estimate: 935 mbar and 125 kt

My aggressive peak estimate: 895 mbar and 150 kt

The Aggressive part is basically when Eta going on REEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#769 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:37 am

This afternoon's NOAA P3 flight is going to be a doozy... Some extreme RI going on right now, with the aid of a very compact inner core. Eye temps are rapidly warming. Raw Dvorak estimates are about to skyrocket with a CDO like this. This is just an all around devastating situation for Central America right now. Regardless of the RI, torrential rainfall will impact the region for days, with deadly mudslides looking increasingly likely. Heartbreaking.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#770 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:38 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#771 Postby us89 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:39 am

The eventual southward turn has been suggested by several models now. What's interesting is that the GFS doesn't start that turn until late this afternoon, while the 06z HWRF doesn't have it until this evening. If this is the start of a trend and not just a wobble, could signal an earlier stall.
Last edited by us89 on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:40 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#772 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:39 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#773 Postby Chemmers » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:40 am

Unfortunately it is looking so good on ir right now
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#774 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:41 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

Might be already at 105 or 110 mph because of the strengthening eye.
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#775 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:41 am

The way that eye is clearing out, the earlier comments about Eta pulling a Delta and shooting past cat3 are probably correct
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#776 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:42 am

Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Nancy Smar wrote:
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 0, 148N, 811W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 105, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 7, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 60, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 3, 148N, 814W, 90, 970, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 265, 8, , , 12, NEQ, 120, 60, 60, 90,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 70, 40, 90, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 12, 144N, 824W, 110, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 10, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 135, 10, , 0, DPB, 250, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 50, 90, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 24, 140N, 831W, 115, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 140, 10, , 0, DPB, 240, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 80, 40, 60, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 36, 139N, 836W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 110, 10, , 0, DPB, 260, 2,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 48, 139N, 845W, 45, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 55, 10, , 0, DPB, 270, 4,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 60, 142N, 857W, 30, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 285, 6,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 72, 146N, 870W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 290, 7,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 96, 158N, 877W, 25, 0, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 35, 10, , 0, DPB, 330, 3,
AL, 29, 2020110212, 03, OFCL, 120, 175N, 865W, 30, 0, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 40, 10, , 0, DPB, 35, 5,

How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

No, It is a 90kt and 970mbar Cat 2 now.
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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tiger_deF
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#777 Postby tiger_deF » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am

Eye is torching, going from black to yellow on IR in the span of half an hour. I'd expect it to fully clear out in the next hour
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#778 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:43 am

Eye Temp. on Windy.com is at -65C on the latest frames.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#779 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:44 am

Nancy Smar wrote:
Weather Dude wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:How strong?

Appears to be 85kt Cat 2 with a 115kt Cat 4 peak forecast. 85kts is pretty low... They've been really conservative with this one

No, It is a 90kt and 970mbar Cat 2 now.

I knew it was around 105 ot 110 mph by now.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#780 Postby Ubuntwo » Mon Nov 02, 2020 9:44 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:The way that eye is clearing out, the earlier comments about Eta pulling a Delta and shooting past cat3 are probably correct

With one key difference: Eta has already done what Delta never could.
Image
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