ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

If the eye continues to warm and clears out, Dvorak could suffice in absence of recon.

At this rate, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chthulu grabs the next recon flight out of the sky. Or it just gets hit by lightning right as it nears the storm like Willa.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

They need to send one out that's not schedule sheesh

[AxaltaRacing24]

They need to send one out that's not schedule sheesh

yeah, if they can get one out before 1:30, they need to send it.

[Owasso]

Getting there.

[Nuno]

We need some new planes, and new training for the pilots to check stuff before they leave. This is becoming too much for this many recons to fail like this

This has to surely be due to funds right? I can't imagine recon into storms has a high priority even in NOAA funding.

[wx98]

If anyone will stay up in the overnight, the next plane goes at 1:30 AM EST.

The plan says 0130z, which is 8:30 EST? Don’t know where you got 1:30.

[kevin]

This entire situation surrounding Eta is the most '2020' thing of the season. Everything that could go wrong did go wrong both in terms of recon and the RI of Eta.

[Owasso]

If anyone will stay up in the overnight, the next plane goes at 1:30 AM EST.

The plan says 0130z, which is 8:30 EST? Don’t know where you got 1:30.

Yeah, I think the center fix is at time though.

[Chemmers]

How is it only a cat 4, it have seem lot off cat 5 not looking any where near as good as this, hope this doesn’t catch anyone off guard, they say it is 130 but to me thinking it most be somewhere near 160 by now

[wx98]

If anyone will stay up in the overnight, the next plane goes at 1:30 AM EST.

The plan says 0130z, which is 8:30 EST? Don’t know where you got 1:30.

Yeah, I think the center fix is at time though.

Center fix is 0530z, which is 12:30 EST so probably.

[aspen]

I guess I’m staying up all night to see at least one recon pass...assuming recon doesn’t break down again or get eaten by the Kraken halfway to Eta.

[kevin]

I'm gonna take a storm2k break for a few hours until recon gets there, it's just too much for me right now. Prayers to CA, I'm afraid the landfall location will be absolutely destroyed.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Eye temps warming again. Looks a little larger as well.

[Laminar]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

[cycloneye]

This is me twitting this.

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1323375669036961793

[Andy_L]

They need to send one out that's not schedule sheesh

yeah, if they can get one out before 1:30, they need to send it.

Not as simple as just run out n jump in an airplane. This is air force/government...each flight is carefully planned and executed...it HAS to be, for safety reasons. As much as I would love to see the data, i don't want it to be at the expense of crew safety. The affect on CA from a high cat 4 vs a low cat 5 isn't that relevant

[ElectricStorm]

Even without recon Eta will likely still be upgraded to a Cat 5 operationally if trends continue which I think they likely will. The NHC showed us last year with Lorenzo that their not afraid to ungrade a storm to Cat 5 without recon if they truly think it is. No reason to think they won't do it here, as they still forecast RI through landfall. I personally think Eta already looks better than Lorenzo and it will be even better when the eye clears out. But they're the experts for a reason and it's their call. But yeah they need to send a replacement plane ASAP

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hurricane Hunters really do need to be better funded to help upkeep with their maintenance. Only 1/4 of the last recons have made it to Zeta.

[AutoPenalti]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

If that idea were true, you'd think they would opt to scrub the flight before they are already an hour into the Gulf of Mexico.

[Buck]

Can the posters who are constantly posting "How is this not Cat 5 yet?!" or the equivalent please remember that A.You don't have to say the same thing multiple times every hour, B. The NHC are experts for a reason... They aren't sleeping on this... They have more data than any of us do, and C. We all like records and we are all here because we love watching the power of these storms, but "-removed-" can really get in the way of actual information and discussion here.