ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

Probably around 930 mbar right now if the earlier deepening rate has continued.

[underthwx]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

I highly doubt that is the case...the NHC has a responsibility to safely interact with a cyclone in the Atlantic basin.... especially when there is a vested interest in determining a future threat to the United States..or to our neighbors in other countries...the NHC is the gold standard of Tropical forecasting, and they provide everyone with vital information...that has always been my understanding....and I mean no disrespect to you...

[ElectricStorm]

Probably around 930 mbar right now if the earlier deepening rate has continued.

Probably around 130-135 kts right now. Eye is not cleared out yet for Cat 5

[TorSkk]

CMG/CDG ring and a LG eye. But what about width requirements?

[Highteeld]

The CDO symmetry seems to really be improving. I would think the eye clears out soon, and we get a solid T 7.5

[Cyclenall]

Imagine if this recon trouble happened during Patricia, not something I like to think about. If today's recon outcomes happened on Aug 27-29 2005 then head of maintenance departments and managers would've been fired.

Regardless one Swan Island special coming right up.

[Aric Dunn]

I would bet money this is a easy Cat 5.

[gfsperpendicular]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

The reason you feel this way is likely because all the planes take off from the US. Much more room for things to go wrong on longer flights.

By my count, this is the 20th storm to require warnings or make landfall, which is completely unprecedented. I'm sure they are running low on funding and resources. But it is their job, and the NHC's job, to be "data chasers", so they will continue to attempt flights.

[LarryWx]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

I highly doubt that is the case...the NHC has a responsibility to safely interact with a cyclone in the Atlantic basin.... especially when there is a vested interest in determining a future threat to the United States..or to our neighbors in other countries...at least that is my understanding....and I mean no disrespect to you...

Not having recon in Eta right now doesn't, itself, increase the danger to Central America. They already know it will be a near worst case scenario, which the NHC is already forecasting.

[Cunxi Huang]

Two AMSU readings were recorded, one was 132kt/926mb at 1430Z and the other was 134kt/930mb at 1437Z.
Consider that the system has slightly intensified since 1430Z from satellite view, I would say Eta could be ~135 kt now, based on merely AMSU estimations.

[underthwx]

I would bet money this is a easy Cat 5.

I would not bet against you Aric...

[RL3AO]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

[Kingarabian]

Imagine if this recon trouble happened during Patricia, not something I like to think about. If today's recon outcomes happened on Aug 27-29 2005 then head of maintenance departments and managers would've been fired.

Regardless one Swan Island special coming right up.

Well Patricia had Dvorak as a backup. It broke the scale. But similar to Dorian 2019 where Dvorak did not handle the storm well, this is where recon cant be beat. But yeah that's the issue with reduced funding and all and using 30 year old technology.

[Aric Dunn]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

[Laminar]

I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.

The reason you feel this way is likely because all the planes take off from the US. Much more room for things to go wrong on longer flights.

By my count, this is the 20th storm to require warnings or make landfall, which is completely unprecedented. I'm sure they are running low on funding and resources. But it is their job, and the NHC's job, to be "data chasers", so they will continue to attempt flights.

If I was the commander having to make the call on whether to launch an 8-10 hour mission into a storm that is basically committed to doing what it’s going to do for the next 8-10 hours, while my next aircraft is getting prepped for an 01:30 launch...I may pull the plug.(which may mean logging a launch at least, before RTB)

[NotoSans]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

Have to disagree with this. GOES-16’s IR band resolution is at 2km, on par with Himawari-8. Goni a few days ago only have a 4nm eye and satellite is still able to depict a fully cleared-out WMG eye.

It may be the case before that satellite is unable to fully resolve a pinhole eye, but satellite resolution has improved so much that this difference is getting less and less significant.

[Kingarabian]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

I think Goni's eye was smaller and they handled it well.

[Aric Dunn]

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0

likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

Have to disagree with this. GOES-16’s IR band resolution is at 2km, on par with Himawari-8. Goni a few days ago only have a 4nm eye and satellite is still able to depict a fully cleared-out WMG eye.

It may be the case before that satellite is unable to fully resolve a pinhole eye, but satellite resolution has improved so much that this difference is getting less and less significant.

I was not speaking of the satellites.. the storm itself may not be able to clear out the final low levels do too the extreme tapering of the eyewall. it happens from time to time. does not dimish strength at all. just tough to get a accurate satellite estimate.

[RL3AO]

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.

[Cunxi Huang]