ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1281 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:36 pm

Probably around 930 mbar right now if the earlier deepening rate has continued.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1282 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:38 pm

Laminar wrote:I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.


I highly doubt that is the case...the NHC has a responsibility to safely interact with a cyclone in the Atlantic basin.... especially when there is a vested interest in determining a future threat to the United States..or to our neighbors in other countries...the NHC is the gold standard of Tropical forecasting, and they provide everyone with vital information...that has always been my understanding....and I mean no disrespect to you...
Last edited by underthwx on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:42 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1283 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:39 pm

aspen wrote:Probably around 930 mbar right now if the earlier deepening rate has continued.

Probably around 130-135 kts right now. Eye is not cleared out yet for Cat 5
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1284 Postby TorSkk » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:39 pm

CMG/CDG ring and a LG eye. But what about width requirements?


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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1285 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:39 pm

The CDO symmetry seems to really be improving. I would think the eye clears out soon, and we get a solid T 7.5
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1286 Postby Cyclenall » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:40 pm

Imagine if this recon trouble happened during Patricia, not something I like to think about. If today's recon outcomes happened on Aug 27-29 2005 then head of maintenance departments and managers would've been fired.

Regardless one Swan Island special coming right up.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1287 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:40 pm

I would bet money this is a easy Cat 5.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1288 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:43 pm

Laminar wrote:I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.


The reason you feel this way is likely because all the planes take off from the US. Much more room for things to go wrong on longer flights.

By my count, this is the 20th storm to require warnings or make landfall, which is completely unprecedented. I'm sure they are running low on funding and resources. But it is their job, and the NHC's job, to be "data chasers", so they will continue to attempt flights.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1289 Postby LarryWx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:43 pm

underthwx wrote:
Laminar wrote:I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.


I highly doubt that is the case...the NHC has a responsibility to safely interact with a cyclone in the Atlantic basin.... especially when there is a vested interest in determining a future threat to the United States..or to our neighbors in other countries...at least that is my understanding....and I mean no disrespect to you...


Not having recon in Eta right now doesn't, itself, increase the danger to Central America. They already know it will be a near worst case scenario, which the NHC is already forecasting.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1290 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:43 pm

Two AMSU readings were recorded, one was 132kt/926mb at 1430Z and the other was 134kt/930mb at 1437Z.
Consider that the system has slightly intensified since 1430Z from satellite view, I would say Eta could be ~135 kt now, based on merely AMSU estimations.

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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1291 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:44 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I would bet money this is a easy Cat 5.


I would not bet against you Aric...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1292 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:45 pm

Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1293 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:46 pm

Cyclenall wrote:Imagine if this recon trouble happened during Patricia, not something I like to think about. If today's recon outcomes happened on Aug 27-29 2005 then head of maintenance departments and managers would've been fired.

Regardless one Swan Island special coming right up.

Well Patricia had Dvorak as a backup. It broke the scale. But similar to Dorian 2019 where Dvorak did not handle the storm well, this is where recon cant be beat. But yeah that's the issue with reduced funding and all and using 30 year old technology.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1294 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:47 pm

RL3AO wrote:Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0


likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1295 Postby Laminar » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:48 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
Laminar wrote:I’ll probably get stoned for saying this but I wonder if they don’t feel that it’s not economically viable to send the aircraft and crew out for a hurricane that is nearly landfalling in a foreign country.
I personally feel that all of the turn backs have been on storms about to make landfall in non US territory.
Rough costing must be upwards of $5000 per hour to run a C130 and crew - so it may just make financial sense to take one flight off the daily plan on non US landfalling storms.
With ETA, of much more importance, is what happens after landfall with regards movement towards the US.
Currently, the only people in the world that would gain anything out of an 8 hour mission, are the data chasers. Everyone else knows that Cat 4/5 Major is about to make landfall around the Nicaragua/Honduras border. That’s all we really need to know for now.

Apologies if that sounds harsh. I live in a non US territory and have seen this for the last couple of years now. I may be wrong, but coming from a background of operating expensive aircraft - I would understand the reasoning to drop certain flights. Perhaps their funding is based on launches - and is why they may launch but then turn around after a certain amount of time.

I’m open to correction and vitriol.


The reason you feel this way is likely because all the planes take off from the US. Much more room for things to go wrong on longer flights.

By my count, this is the 20th storm to require warnings or make landfall, which is completely unprecedented. I'm sure they are running low on funding and resources. But it is their job, and the NHC's job, to be "data chasers", so they will continue to attempt flights.


If I was the commander having to make the call on whether to launch an 8-10 hour mission into a storm that is basically committed to doing what it’s going to do for the next 8-10 hours, while my next aircraft is getting prepped for an 01:30 launch...I may pull the plug.(which may mean logging a launch at least, before RTB)
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1296 Postby NotoSans » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:50 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0


likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

Have to disagree with this. GOES-16’s IR band resolution is at 2km, on par with Himawari-8. Goni a few days ago only have a 4nm eye and satellite is still able to depict a fully cleared-out WMG eye.

It may be the case before that satellite is unable to fully resolve a pinhole eye, but satellite resolution has improved so much that this difference is getting less and less significant.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1297 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0


likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

I think Goni's eye was smaller and they handled it well.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1298 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:53 pm

NotoSans wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
RL3AO wrote:Only need the eye to warm and we're at 7.0


likely to small to fully clear for satellite estimates.

Have to disagree with this. GOES-16’s IR band resolution is at 2km, on par with Himawari-8. Goni a few days ago only have a 4nm eye and satellite is still able to depict a fully cleared-out WMG eye.

It may be the case before that satellite is unable to fully resolve a pinhole eye, but satellite resolution has improved so much that this difference is getting less and less significant.


I was not speaking of the satellites.. the storm itself may not be able to clear out the final low levels do too the extreme tapering of the eyewall. it happens from time to time. does not dimish strength at all. just tough to get a accurate satellite estimate.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1299 Postby RL3AO » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:54 pm

It's looking better and better each frame. Eye becoming very round warmer. 7.5 seems very possible tonight.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1300 Postby Cunxi Huang » Mon Nov 02, 2020 4:54 pm

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