
ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Warmer eye. Hurricane Allen might be going down.


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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Now the deepest hurricane of the year, stronger than Laura.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Highteeld wrote:supercane4867 wrote:Iceresistance wrote:I see, but that did not make sense at first.
Actually, not even the WPAC produces this kind of CDO very often. Eta resembles a SPAC system more than any other basin. SPAC cyclones are known to produce insanely cold cloudtops.
This. WPAC storms will have more pronounced banding features while SPAC tends to have smaller CDO's but larger area of visible ventilation/spin. Eta is more like SPAC
Reminds me a bit of Winston, though Winston's eye was bigger
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Cunxi Huang wrote:7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 2
Location: 14.4°N 82.4°W
Moving: WSW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph
Stronger than Paloma 2008!










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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
The way it's looking right now... I think we may see a special advisory coming after the recon pass. 

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Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:finally clearling out.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/vqm5zvp/Capture.png[url]
Thought I was on LSD for a moment.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
SAB
TXNT22 KNES 022351
TCSNTL
A. 29L (ETA)
B. 02/2331Z
C. 14.3N
D. 82.4W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24H. FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE
TCSNTL
A. 29L (ETA)
B. 02/2331Z
C. 14.3N
D. 82.4W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24H. FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
TorSkk wrote:SABTXNT22 KNES 022351
TCSNTL
A. 29L (ETA)
B. 02/2331Z
C. 14.3N
D. 82.4W
E. ONE/GOES-E
F. T6.0/6.0
G. IR/EIR/SWIR
H. REMARKS...AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS A
DT OF 6.5 AFTER AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5. MET IS EQUAL TO 5.0 AND PT
IS EQUAL TO 5.5 BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE PAST 24H. FT IS
BASED ON THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TUGGLE
LOL. But yeah it just comes down to the frame they use.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Raw T of 7.4... i'd estimate the eye has warmed 20 degrees since the 2320z measurement. I think a RAW T of 7.7 is next with a correct ADT center location.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
With the eye temps rising like that Delta T could get to C5 levels before recon even gets there. Safe to say this is one of the most anticipated recon passes in a long while
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ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
I should have stuck with my original 933 estimate...
This is a record for November Rapid Intensification...
This is a record for November Rapid Intensification...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
rapidly warming eye now..
nearly positive with a tiny eye..
if it was not a cat 5 before it is now lol

nearly positive with a tiny eye..
if it was not a cat 5 before it is now lol

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I believe the sky is falling...
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
jackdets wrote:With the eye temps rising like that Delta T could get to C5 levels before recon even gets there. Safe to say this is one of the most anticipated recon passes in a long while
If not, ever.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
This is just unreal. And you're telling me this season produced this monster in November??!?


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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Not that anyone is surprised but operationally this dethrones Paloma 2008 as the 3rd most intense November cane. Lenny is for sure next. 1932’s spot is not impossible for Eta...
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- Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Recon is now at the point of no return.
Eye temp. now around -8C
Eyewall now around -100C
Eye temp. now around -8C
Eyewall now around -100C
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Weather Dude wrote:The way it's looking right now... I think we may see a special advisory coming after the recon pass.
It would be too close to the 10 pm advisory, but that would be reflected in it.
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Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion: 7 PM EST = 150 mph
Remember August when we were talking quantity over quality? Those were good times.
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