ATL: ETA - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro hits the tip of Florida. Euro much slower than the rest...Looks to allow the high to build in more. Probably will curve back into the GOM.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro hits the tip of Florida. Euro much slower than the rest...Looks to allow the high to build in more. Probably will curve back into the GOM.

The Euro is actually the closest to the official track in terms of timing right now.

[Evil Jeremy]

NHC might need to make big adjustments to the 4-5 day part of the forecast cone at 4pm based on the 12z models.

In 120 hours, CMC and ICON have this in the FL straits, Navy is almost in the Central Bahamas, GFS at Lake O, HWRF riding up the FL east coast, and the ECMWF on the South side of Cuba. ECMWF is the slow outlier right now.

NHC doesn't like making big shifts, but if the next model suite maintains the pattern from 12z, NHC will need to play catch up re; the forecast timing. All depends how much they weigh ECMWF vs the field... Even splitting the difference needs a chunky shift right now.

[SFLcane]

Hwrf with a 980mb hurricane into SFL.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro through 168 hours, looks like the Euro is also transitioning to subtropical and weakening as it turns west:

[SFLcane]

Some consensus in the 12z guidance some impacts potentially are coming to SFL. Could it be stronger sure depends on what takes place with Eta in CA. The way things have gone this season I’d bet on something stronger but we will see

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z Euro lookin' pretty unimpressive as far as intensity goes.

[SFLcane]

12z Nogaps...

[kevin]

We won't know for sure until it emerges from CA, but the some of the models definitely show some very nasty possibilities for Cuba and the US. Tbh I wouldn't really look at intensity right now. Remember that many of the globals and even non-global models didn't forecast Eta to ever become a major hurricane up until the point that it actually became one. For now, the best we can read from the models is that depending on how Eta emerges from CA there is a risk of reorganization and thus a possible threat for Cuba and the US down the line.

[SFLcane]

We won't know for sure until it emerges from CA, but the some of the models definitely show some very nasty possibilities for Cuba and the US. Tbh I wouldn't really look at intensity right now. Remember that many of the globals and even non-global models didn't forecast Eta to ever become a major hurricane up until the point that it actually became one. For now, the best we can read from the models is that depending on how Eta emerges from CA there is a risk of reorganization and thus a possible threat for Cuba and the US down the line.

Exactly my point missed completely by the euro and gfs. Especially the euro model

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro: Eta coming NE into NW FL fairly similarly to Kate of 1985, the only post mid October storm on record to do so I think.

[SFLcane]

10+ inches in some spots on the 12z Euro...

[p1nheadlarry]

NHC might need to make big adjustments to the 4-5 day part of the forecast cone at 4pm based on the 12z models.

In 120 hours, CMC and ICON have this in the FL straits, Navy is almost in the Central Bahamas, GFS at Lake O, HWRF riding up the FL east coast, and the ECMWF on the South side of Cuba. ECMWF is the slow outlier right now.

NHC doesn't like making big shifts, but if the next model suite maintains the pattern from 12z, NHC will need to play catch up re; the forecast timing. All depends how much they weigh ECMWF vs the field... Even splitting the difference needs a chunky shift right now.

Analogs are not forecasts, but this was the same thing that happened during Joaquin in 2015. Euro was the slow, southward diving outlier, and it was right.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z HWRF rakes the whole east coast of FL

[SouthFLTropics]

NHC might need to make big adjustments to the 4-5 day part of the forecast cone at 4pm based on the 12z models.

In 120 hours, CMC and ICON have this in the FL straits, Navy is almost in the Central Bahamas, GFS at Lake O, HWRF riding up the FL east coast, and the ECMWF on the South side of Cuba. ECMWF is the slow outlier right now.

NHC doesn't like making big shifts, but if the next model suite maintains the pattern from 12z, NHC will need to play catch up re; the forecast timing. All depends how much they weigh ECMWF vs the field... Even splitting the difference needs a chunky shift right now.

Analogs are not forecasts, but this was the same thing that happened during Joaquin in 2015. Euro was the slow, southward diving outlier, and it was right.

The problem with this is that the Euro of 2020 is not the same Euro from 2015. The 2020 Euro has, for the most part, be atrocious this year. The general consensus from the majority of the models is that something will emerge in the Gulf of Honduras and head NE towards Cuba. What form or shape its in is to be determined. Also, how far Northeast does it go before being turned back West, assuming it does get turned back. It may instead keep going right out into the Atlantic. Too early right now to determine what position or strength that high will be.

[SFLcane]

12z HWRF rakes the whole east coast of FL

[SFLcane]

Yikes!

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS says Kate #2 is a real possibility;

[jlauderdal]

10+ inches in some spots on the 12z Euro...

https://i.imgur.com/zYT313x.png

that 10-inch bullseye is going to move about 30 miles to the NW

[SFLcane]